206
FXUS63 KMPX 081724
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1224 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NOT AS WARM AND BREEZY TODAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
RESULT OF WARMING TEMPERATURES & STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RETURN OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
TODAY...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE APEX OF A TROUGH
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUING EASTWARD.
MEANWHILE TO OUR WEST, RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACNORTHWEST, THUS LEAVING US LOCALLY SADDLED BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES AND BENEATH A 50-70KT JETSTREAK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL HOLD FIRM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BREEZY AND SUNNY AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. WEAK REMNANT UPPER-FORCING FROM THE DEPARTING TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WITH THE
RETURN OF NW FLOW, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. ALTHOUGH, A FEW SITES ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MN COULD SEE CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE IN THE 40S.
FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, FRIDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN A COOLER AND A
MUCH WARMER AIRMASS THAT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS OF FRIDAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, A WEAK LLJ
30-40KTS WILL INCREASE OVER IOWA AND HAVE ENOUGH LIFT TO
GENERATE A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY MORNING NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. SW'LY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINATE AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARM ADVECTION TO RETURN WITH HIGHS
IN TO THE 70S. BY SATURDAY, ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WHICH FORCES WARM ADVECTION TO KICK INTO
HIGH GEAR. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND BECOMING AS STRONG AS
30-40 MPH. FORECAST HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID-80S. GIVEN
THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE PRECIP WILL NOT BE OF CONCERN HERE.
IT IS MORE SO THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAINTAIN A CONCERN FOR NEAR- CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
FARTHER EAST HOWEVER LINGERING WARMTH AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
COULD MAKE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A COLD FRONT DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO MN/WI. MUCH COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN TOW BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S/LOWER 60S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. AS FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, POPS HAVE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY WITH THE LATEST NBM SIMPLY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS WAVE AND
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THIS DURATION. MAINLY A
WIND FORECAST WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS, ALBEIT WITH SLOWLY
DECREASING COVERAGE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE MN SITES AND THIS EVENING FOR THE WI SITES, CONTINUING
AS SUCH OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK UP FROM THE SE ON FRIDAY WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15G20-25KTS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND SSW 15-25G35KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 10-15G25KTS.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. WIND NW 10-15G20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC
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