376
FXUS63 KMPX 090519
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1219 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY.
- COOLER NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
IS PROVIDING WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE 60S. WE SHOULD GAIN ANOTHER FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY IF ENOUGH SUN BREAKS
OUT FROM THE CLOUDS, AND SOME LOW 70S ARE LIKELY IN SPOTS.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL, HIGHS
IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING,
THEN RISE THROUGH THE 60S OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOW 70S
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH ON THE BUFFALO
RIDGE TOWARD MORNING, THEN THOSE GUSTS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING DEEPENS. WITH FULL SUN ALL DAY
AND DEEP MIXING EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
FULL POTENTIAL. 925 MB TEMPS OF +23 TO +25C SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. AS SUCH THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED, BUT
NOT QUITE TO THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE YET. THE 90TH PERCENTILE
HAS NOT BEEN WARM ENOUGH DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO THERE MAY
BE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS YET. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF WE CAN BREAK 90 ONE MORE TIME THIS SEASON. THE RECORD
SATURDAY IS 90 AT MSP, WHICH IS ALSO THE LATEST 90 ON RECORD.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO IN JEOPARDY WITH 62 FORECAST FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE RISING LATE AND 68 SATURDAY NIGHT. RECORDS FOR
BOTH NIGHTS ARE 63. THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
MONDAY, SO THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE AGAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY.
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN
NORTH, WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TRENDING DRIER ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN AND WI.
THE VERY WARM AIRMASS BRINGS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DEEP MIXING AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ALLOW RH TO
DROP AT LEAST INTO THE 30S BY AFTERNOON. IF THEY DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IN OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER USUALLY LEADS TO
AN OVERPREDICTION OF DEW POINTS WITH RH VERIFYING LOWER THAN
PREDICTED, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN MN.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT MONDAY, COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. BY WEDNESDAY, A TROUGH
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SPAWN AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, THEN TRACKS IT NORTHEAST LATE WEEK. THERE
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THIS QUICKLY EVOLVING PATTERN,
BUT GENERALLY PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, IT MAY BE WARMER
OR COOLER THAN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS REMAIN. VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD, BUT A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGS SOME LOWER LEVEL SATURATION TO FORECAST
SOUNDING PROFILES. CURRENTLY HAVE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS
DROPPING TO 4000-5000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED VALUES WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS
WHILE GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS SLIGHTLY SLOW FRIDAY
EVENING.
KMSP...HAVE BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING NEAR 4000 FEET LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND SSW 15-25G35KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SSW 10-15G25KTS.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. WIND NNW 10G20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CTG
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