383
FXUS63 KMPX 091729
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1229 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY.
- HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY COULD LEAD TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- COOLER NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING STORMS CONTINUE TO OCCUR TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
IOWA, BUT STORM MOTIONS AND THE OVERALL FORCING DRIVING THESE
STORMS WILL KEEP THEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH. TODAY WILL SEE THE
START OF THE MAIN PUSH OF THE WAA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
MEANS RIGHT AS THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WOULD NORMALLY START TO
FALL THIS WAA WILL COUNTERACT THIS SOMEWHAT. THIS STRONG FLOW IS
TIED TO A LOW MOVING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION AROUND
THE AB/SK/MT/ND AREA. THIS IS WHAT GIVES US THE FLOW DRIVING
THIS WAA. WE WILL SEE THE PEAK OF THIS WAA ON SATURDAY WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES C. THIS VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL LIKELY MAKE SATURDAY START OUT WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
WHICH WILL LIMIT WIND POTENTIAL EARLY. THIS WILL NOT LAST
THOUGH AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS DURING THE DAY AND MIXING BECOMES
FAVORED. BY AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. WITH RESPECT TO
FIRE WEATHER, WINDS ARE A CONCERN AND SO ARE THE NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES. WHAT WILL DECIDE HOW MUCH OF A FIRE RISK WE
GET WILL BE RHS, AS CURRENT DEW POINTS IN THE NBM MAKE THIS LOOK
BORDERLINE. HOWEVER NBM OFTEN DOES NOT DO WELL IN THESE KIND OF
DAYS AND THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT THE HRRR IS CLOSER TO
REALITY AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST WESTERN MINNESOTA FALLING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR RH.
THE WAA CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DAY
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN WE SEE A COLD
FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER,
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRING THIS ABNORMAL WARMTH TO
AN END. THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WON'T TAKE A DAY AND A HALF,
THERE JUST REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THIS PASSAGE IN
GUIDANCE. CURRENTLY ONLY LOW POPS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THERE IS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. EVEN IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
SHOWS RAIN WITH THIS FRONT IT IS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS DUE THIS
WEAKER FORCING SETUP AND QUESTIONABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AFTER
A WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ANOTHER
FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL GIVE US OUR
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. UNLIKE THE EARLY WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS ONE HAS
AMPLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A RATHER PRONOUNCED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CONUS. THIS SHOWS MUCH STRONGER SUPPORT IN GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES, COMPARED TO MONDAY, WITH A STRONG SIGNAL. THERE ARE
EVEN MEMBERS WITH A MORE SOAKING RAIN OF A HALF INCH OR MORE.
CURRENTLY THE STRONGER SIGNAL REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT SOME
ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN TRACK AT THIS RANGE IS POSSIBLE. BEHIND
THIS FRONT, HIGH WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE ALREADY LOW-MID LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER
SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR HOW FAR
WEST THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD, AND HOW LOW CIGS WILL DROP.
CURRENT EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS HAVE THEM TUCKED IN THE VERY
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF MN, WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 6000-8000
FEET. WE EXPECT THESE TO DROP BETWEEN 3500-6000 FEET AS THEY
LIFT NORTHEAST, AND THEN EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY, WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. BY TOMORROW, THEY WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY
AND BECOME STRONG, WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KTS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AFTER 18Z.
KMSP...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL
BECOME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT MOST LIKELY DEVELOP IN
THAT 5000-6000 RANGE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND S 10-15G25KTS.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. WIND NNW 10G20KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND N 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...BED
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