221
FXUS63 KMPX 091940
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
240 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY COULD LEAD TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- COOLER NEXT WEEK WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
IT IS GOING TO BE A WARM WEEKEND, LIKELY THE LAST OF THE YEAR,
WITH WIDESPREAD 80S ON DECK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WE ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE AN INCREASED LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE TO THE
TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. FOR US, THAT MEANS
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND WAA. BY TOMORROW, THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES, PLACING THE
UPPER MS VALLEY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON, GUSTING BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH.
AREAS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE COULD EVEN SEE GUSTS EXCEED 40 MPH
DURING PEAK MIXING HOURS. A WIND ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED,
HOWEVER, CURRENT FORECAST GUSTS FALL JUST SHORT OF THE LOWER END
OF THE CRITERIA. IF TRENDS INCREASE, AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
THE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE NEAR-
RECORD TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE NBM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR
TEMPERATURES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE 50TH
PERCENTILE SHOWING WIDESPREAD MID- UPPER 80S EACH DAY. THERE IS
GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH SUNDAY'S HIGHS, BUT THIS UPWARD TREND
WOULD LEAN THINGS TOWARDS A LATER FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
RECORDS FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY ACTUALLY HAVE AN EASIER
TIME BEING BEATEN ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN SATURDAY, DESPITE THE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER TEMPS FOR TOMORROW. THIS IS BECAUSE
THE RECORDS FOR OCTOBER 11TH ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN
OCTOBER 10TH. FOR THE 10TH, THE RECORDS ARE: MSP (90 IN 1928),
STC (88 IN 1928), AND EAU (88 IN 1928). FOR THE 11TH, THE
RECORDS ARE: MSP (85 IN 2015), STC (83 IN 2015), AND EAU (85 IN
1930).
THESE POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING TEMPS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY ON
SUNDAY AS WELL. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE THERE FOR SATURDAY, BUT
WEAKEN AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. FOR BOTH DAYS, RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TYPICALLY WE START TO
WORRY MOST WHEN RHS DROP BELOW 25%, SO THE MORE WE CAN LIMIT HOW
DRY WE GET, THE BETTER. GIVEN OUR WET START TO THE FALL, THE
AMOUNT OF DRY FUELS (DEAD VEGETATION) IS NOT AS CONCERNING AS IT
MIGHT TYPICALLY BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TAKING BOTH OF THOSE
ASPECTS INTO ACCOUNT, AND AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE DNR, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AGAINST ISSUING ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR
THIS WEEKEND. IF RH VALUES TREND LOWER THAN EXPECTED, THAT IS
WHAT WOULD PUSH US TOWARDS ISSUING A WARNING. OTHERWISE, WHAT IS
MORE LIKELY IS THAT WE ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
THE ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA.
NEXT WEEK... TEMPERATURES TREND DOWN FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE WEEK SEEING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE THERE
MAY BE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FROPA EARLY IN THE WEEK,
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME MID-WEEK, LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. THE FORCING IS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE,
WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING WE EVEN BUILD IN A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE ALREADY LOW-MID LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER
SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR HOW FAR
WEST THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD, AND HOW LOW CIGS WILL DROP.
CURRENT EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS HAVE THEM TUCKED IN THE VERY
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF MN, WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 6000-8000
FEET. WE EXPECT THESE TO DROP BETWEEN 3500-6000 FEET AS THEY
LIFT NORTHEAST, AND THEN EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY, WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. BY TOMORROW, THEY WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY
AND BECOME STRONG, WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KTS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AFTER 18Z.
KMSP...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL
BECOME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT MOST LIKELY DEVELOP IN
THAT 5000-6000 RANGE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND S 10-15G25KTS.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. WIND NNW 10G20KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND N 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BED
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