894
FXUS63 KMPX 092328
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
628 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY COULD LEAD TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- COOLER NEXT WEEK WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
IT IS GOING TO BE A WARM WEEKEND, LIKELY THE LAST OF THE YEAR,
WITH WIDESPREAD 80S ON DECK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WE ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE AN INCREASED LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE TO THE
TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. FOR US, THAT MEANS
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND WAA. BY TOMORROW, THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES, PLACING THE
UPPER MS VALLEY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON, GUSTING BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH.
AREAS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE COULD EVEN SEE GUSTS EXCEED 40 MPH
DURING PEAK MIXING HOURS. A WIND ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED,
HOWEVER, CURRENT FORECAST GUSTS FALL JUST SHORT OF THE LOWER END
OF THE CRITERIA. IF TRENDS INCREASE, AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
THE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE NEAR-
RECORD TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE NBM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR
TEMPERATURES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE 50TH
PERCENTILE SHOWING WIDESPREAD MID- UPPER 80S EACH DAY. THERE IS
GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH SUNDAY'S HIGHS, BUT THIS UPWARD TREND
WOULD LEAN THINGS TOWARDS A LATER FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
RECORDS FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY ACTUALLY HAVE AN EASIER
TIME BEING BEATEN ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN SATURDAY, DESPITE THE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER TEMPS FOR TOMORROW. THIS IS BECAUSE
THE RECORDS FOR OCTOBER 11TH ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN
OCTOBER 10TH. FOR THE 10TH, THE RECORDS ARE: MSP (90 IN 1928),
STC (88 IN 1928), AND EAU (88 IN 1928). FOR THE 11TH, THE
RECORDS ARE: MSP (85 IN 2015), STC (83 IN 2015), AND EAU (85 IN
1930).
THESE POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING TEMPS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY ON
SUNDAY AS WELL. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE THERE FOR SATURDAY, BUT
WEAKEN AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. FOR BOTH DAYS, RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON. TYPICALLY WE START TO
WORRY MOST WHEN RHS DROP BELOW 25%, SO THE MORE WE CAN LIMIT HOW
DRY WE GET, THE BETTER. GIVEN OUR WET START TO THE FALL, THE
AMOUNT OF DRY FUELS (DEAD VEGETATION) IS NOT AS CONCERNING AS IT
MIGHT TYPICALLY BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TAKING BOTH OF THOSE
ASPECTS INTO ACCOUNT, AND AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE DNR, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AGAINST ISSUING ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR
THIS WEEKEND. IF RH VALUES TREND LOWER THAN EXPECTED, THAT IS
WHAT WOULD PUSH US TOWARDS ISSUING A WARNING. OTHERWISE, WHAT IS
MORE LIKELY IS THAT WE ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
THE ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA.
NEXT WEEK... TEMPERATURES TREND DOWN FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE WEEK SEEING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE THERE
MAY BE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FROPA EARLY IN THE WEEK,
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME MID-WEEK, LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. THE FORCING IS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE,
WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING WE EVEN BUILD IN A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BOTH FOR
LLWS AND INCREASING GUSTS AFTER 12Z. VFR FEW/SCT250 TO SKC SKIES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT, WITH THE ONLY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE
TO BLOWING DUST FROM AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL FAVOR
170-190, INCREASING ABOVE 10KTS BETWEEN 06-12Z AS LLWS ALSO
INCREASES IN COVERAGE ALOFT, WITH GUSTS INCREASING FURTHER TO
30-35KTS AFTER 15-18Z DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LLWS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD, MAINLY FOR MSP WITH THE
EXTENDED 30HR PERIOD.
KMSP...THE 2 PERIODS OF LLWS AND THE GUSTS ARE THE ONLY REAL
CONCERN, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR 180 DIRECTION AFTER
15Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. WIND NNW 10G20KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND N 5-10KTS.
WED...VFR, CHC PM -SHRA/MVFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...TDH
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