930
FXUS63 KMPX 102333
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
633 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ARRIVES LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA ARE WELL ON THEIR WAY TO
MAKING A RUN AT 90 THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40
MPH. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL WORKING THEIR WAY TO THE EAST
WHERE GUSTS ARE ONLY AROUND 25-30 MPH. FORTUNATELY, TDS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE 50S SO RH VALUES HAVE NOT FALLEN BELOW 25%. AN SPS
FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS STILL SEEMS SUFFICIENT, SO NO
PLANS TO UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING. THIS HEAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY NOW AS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY. RECORD HIGHS ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY IN
JEOPARDY TOMORROW, BUT WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF REACH FOR MONDAY.
REGARDING THE RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY, NORTHERN MINNESOTA DOWN INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS, BUT QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW.
BEGINNING TUESDAY, IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE OCTOBER-LIKE WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 60S. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MID TO LATE IN THE
WEEK, BUT THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT
HAPPENS WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. POPS CAME IN SLIGHTLY
LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE, LIKELY DUE TO THE DETERMINISTIC EURO
CONTINUING TO HOLD ON TO THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HAVE A SHORTWAVE
DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE THURSDAY. SO, WE ARE
STILL CARRYING THE SAME AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
IN THE COMING DAYS. BEYOND THIS, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL INTO THE
50S WITH NEXT SATURDAY MORNING STARTING OUT IN THE 30S. HOWEVER,
LOOKING INTO LATE NEXT WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES HINT THAT WE ARE PROBABLY
NOT DONE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S JUST YET.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING, HOWEVER 25-30KT
GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. EVENTUALLY, WIND
SPEEDS WILL RELAX TO AROUND 10KTS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. IN ADDITION
TO THE SURFACE WINDS, CONCERNS FOR LLWS INCREASE THIS EVENING
DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 45-50KT LLJ
POSITIONED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON..VFR. CHC PM -SHRA/MVFR. WIND N 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NE 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...STRUS
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