062
FXUS63 KMPX 120458
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1158 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RECORD
HIGHS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA MONDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER AIR
ARRIVING AREA WIDE BY TUESDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ARRIVES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NEAR BRAINERD TO
WILLMAR AND CANBY AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN BACK INTO THE
80S EAST OF THE FRONT, WITH 70S TO THE WEST. SOME READINGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN ARE APPROACHING 90. STC AND EAU ARE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF BREAKING THEIR RECORD HIGHS AND MSP HAS ALREADY
BROKE THE RECORD HIGH OF 85 WITH 86 AROUND 145 PM. HIGHS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT
READINGS.
THE FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY SINK SOUTH TONIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY AGAIN MONDAY FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO NORTHWEST WI. A
FEW WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
THE MAIN LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON. EARLY DAY CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME
DURING THE MORNING, ALLOWING FOR SUFFICIENT HEATING. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
BE WARM, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT. THE
TEMPERATURE CONTRACT ALONG THE FRONT WON'T BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS
TODAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, BUT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
NORTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VS 80S TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS BY TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL MN, TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN.
A LARGE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MIDWEEK WILL TRACK
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS A LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS HOW THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL INTERACT, BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A
DRIER FORECAST WITH PHASING OCCURRING EAST OF THE REGION.
EVEN COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD 20S AND
30S FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY END THE GROWING SEASON FOR MANY.
ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING BACK INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KAXN,
WITH MVFR/IFR STRATUS NEARBY. DID ADD A TEMPO OVERNIGHT, AND
WENT PREVAILING WITH THE STRATUS DECK ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH, AND BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR STRATUS
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
KMSP...
ONE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
BRINGS NORTHWEST WINDS.
OTHER THAN THAT, THE TAF REMAINS THE SAME WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT AND TODAY AND VFR CONDITIONS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SHRA LATE. WIND SE BCMG W 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB
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