064
FXUS63 KMPX 121821
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
121 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN MN TODAY. HOWEVER, SOUTHEASTERN MN
AND WEST-CENTRAL WI WILL STILL SEE NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WI TONIGHT.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
COOL DOWN TO END THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
WE HAD ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES AS THIS
EXTREMELY ABNORMALLY WARM AIRMASS STICKS WITH US. MSP, STC,
AND EAU ALL SET DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AND MSP'S 90 IS
THE LATEST 90 RECORDED IN THE CALENDAR YEAR. THE STALLED COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NEAR HINCKLEY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE NORTHWARD MOVING MINNESOTA RIVER TO FAIRMONT. WEST OF
THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES COOL FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 50S IN
WESTERN MN. SOME PATCHY FOG IS BEING OBSERVED IN OUR FAR WESTERN
MN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO THE DEWPOINT.
EAST OF THE FRONT, IT IS STUFFY WITH STILL MID TO EVEN UPPER 70S
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WI AT THIS EARLY HOUR. THE FRONT WILL
STAY IN PLACE FOR MOST OF TODAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES GET VERY
WARM TO ITS EAST. LOW TO MID 80S ARE FORECAST FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO WESTERN WI. EAU'S HIGH OF 87 WOULD BREAK THE DAILY RECORD
SO ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING DAY OF HEAT IS LIKELY. HIGHS COOL TO
THE WEST WITH WESTERN MN FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. AS WE
NEAR MIDDAY, A FEW CAMS SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN WESTERN MN AND MOVING NORTHEAST AS SYNOPTIC LIFT
INCREASES OVER THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 40-50%
FROM WESTERN TO CENTRAL MN MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. AS SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES, A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
TRAVEL NORTHEAST. MORE RAIN WILL DEVELOP WELL TO OUR NORTH
INITIALLY, BUT ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN WI
COUNTIES AS THE LOW EXITS EAST MONDAY NIGHT. 0.1" TO PERHAPS
0.25" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST MONDAY NIGHT COOLING US DOWN TO MORE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL ALSO ENTER A
BRIEF DRY PERIOD THROUGH MID-WEEK. TUESDAY'S HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN TO MID
TO UPPER 60S FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. BY WEDNESDAY, HIGHS WILL
BE A BIT COOLER WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA.
MEANWHILE, CENTRAL MN SHOULD SEE SOME UPPER 30S FOR LOWS RETURN
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
ARRIVING EARLY THURSDAY AS FORECAST MODELS SHOW A CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES TRAVELING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN THE NORTHERN
JETSTREAM IS FORECAST TO DIG EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE DOESN'T FAVOR THE PHASING OF
THESE 2 FEATURES UNTIL OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT A
SURFACE LOW SHOULD GET GOING OVER THE MIDWEST THE SECOND HALF OF
THURSDAY BEFORE TRAVELING EAST. MODEL CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
IN THIS SOLUTION SUCH THAT 50-70% POPS STRETCH FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO WI DURING THURSDAY. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION REACHES, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA SEEING MEANINGFUL RAIN HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD.
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES, CAUSING ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW AND CAA IN
ITS WAKE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A MAJORITY OF OUR CWA COULD
SEE ITS FIRST SUB-FREEZING LOWS SATURDAY MORNING AS A PORTION OF
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THIS "COLD
SNAP" WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS AMPLIFIED
UPPER- LEVEL RIDGING PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ROCKIES TO START
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NE FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
SITTING OVER THE SW MN CORNER WILL ALL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A WIDE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
ALREADY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
WESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE
CEILINGS DROP INTO MVFR FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH MVFR (AND POTENTIALLY A FEW PERIODS OF IFR)
CEILINGS LASTING FOR MUCH TUESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BUT DOES LOOK TO STAY
AWAY FROM MSP. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT INITIALIZATION WILL
BECOME NW 8-12KTS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL GOING INTO THIS EVENING, BUT
WITH MID-LEVEL CEILINGS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z. CEILINGS WILL THEN
CONTINUE TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION NOR ANY IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED, BUT CEILINGS MAY WELL DROP TO SUB-1700FT BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING, THEN REMAIN THERE WITH SPEEDS 5-10KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10KTS.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SHRA. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE BCMG NW 10-20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 15-20G30KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...JPC
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