000
FXUS63 KMPX 121853
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
153 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WI TONIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS THURSDAY.
- OUR FIRST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY LOOK A LITTLE GOOFY AS
A SURFACE FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST, WHILE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER IS PLAYING A BIG ROLE TOO. AS OF 1PM,
YOU CAN SEE THE WARM AIRMASS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN MN UP
TOWARDS THE TWIN CITIES METRO AND OVER TOWARDS EAU CLAIRE, WI.
HERE, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. EAU CLAIRE
IS GIVING A RUN FOR ITS DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 86! AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF THIS AIRMASS ARE MUCH COOLER, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AND 60S. THERE IS A TONGUE OF SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAT
LIFTS UP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY THOUGH, WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HELPING WARM THINGS CLOSER TO 70 WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR.
A SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
HELP USHER IN THE COOLER AIRMASS FOR EVERYONE IN THE UPPER MS
VALLEY, DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 40S AND 50S TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SPOTTY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MN REMAIN FAVORED FOR ANY PRECIPITATION, THOUGH
AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT (ABOUT 0.1" OR LESS).
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK, WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY AS A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
IMPINGE ON EACH OTHER OVER THE MIDWEST. IT MAY END UP BEING THE
CASE WHERE WE FALL SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF
FORCING, AND AS A RESULT, DON'T RECEIVE MUCH RAIN AT ALL. POPS
REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO WI WHERE UP TO A COUPLE
TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE, AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FOR
AREAS FURTHER NORTH.
POTENTIALLY THE BIGGER IMPACT FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE THE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY, AND MORE SPECIFICALLY SATURDAY MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECTING IN A COOLER, DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BOTH SUPPORT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY, WITH THE ONLY REAL
EXCEPTION BEING THE CORE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO. REGARDLESS OF
HOW COLD WE CAN GET TO END THE WEEK, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN TO START NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD FEATURE
ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... THOUGH NOT AS
WARM AS WE HAVE BEEN THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NE FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
SITTING OVER THE SW MN CORNER WILL ALL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A WIDE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
ALREADY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
WESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE
CEILINGS DROP INTO MVFR FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH MVFR (AND POTENTIALLY A FEW PERIODS OF IFR)
CEILINGS LASTING FOR MUCH TUESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BUT DOES LOOK TO STAY
AWAY FROM MSP. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT INITIALIZATION WILL
BECOME NW 8-12KTS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL GOING INTO THIS EVENING, BUT
WITH MID-LEVEL CEILINGS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z. CEILINGS WILL THEN
CONTINUE TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION NOR ANY IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED, BUT CEILINGS MAY WELL DROP TO SUB-1700FT BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING, THEN REMAIN THERE WITH SPEEDS 5-10KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10KTS.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SHRA. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE BCMG NW 10-20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 15-20G30KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC
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