787
FXUS63 KMPX 122337
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
637 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WI TONIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS THURSDAY.
- OUR FIRST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY LOOK A LITTLE GOOFY AS
A SURFACE FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST, WHILE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER IS PLAYING A BIG ROLE TOO. AS OF 1PM,
YOU CAN SEE THE WARM AIRMASS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN MN UP
TOWARDS THE TWIN CITIES METRO AND OVER TOWARDS EAU CLAIRE, WI.
HERE, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. EAU CLAIRE
IS GIVING A RUN FOR ITS DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 86! AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF THIS AIRMASS ARE MUCH COOLER, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AND 60S. THERE IS A TONGUE OF SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAT
LIFTS UP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY THOUGH, WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HELPING WARM THINGS CLOSER TO 70 WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR.
A SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
HELP USHER IN THE COOLER AIRMASS FOR EVERYONE IN THE UPPER MS
VALLEY, DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 40S AND 50S TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SPOTTY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MN REMAIN FAVORED FOR ANY PRECIPITATION, THOUGH
AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT (ABOUT 0.1" OR LESS).
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK, WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY AS A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
IMPINGE ON EACH OTHER OVER THE MIDWEST. IT MAY END UP BEING THE
CASE WHERE WE FALL SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF
FORCING, AND AS A RESULT, DON'T RECEIVE MUCH RAIN AT ALL. POPS
REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO WI WHERE UP TO A COUPLE
TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE, AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FOR
AREAS FURTHER NORTH.
POTENTIALLY THE BIGGER IMPACT FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE THE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY, AND MORE SPECIFICALLY SATURDAY MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECTING IN A COOLER, DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BOTH SUPPORT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY, WITH THE ONLY REAL
EXCEPTION BEING THE CORE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO. REGARDLESS OF
HOW COLD WE CAN GET TO END THE WEEK, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN TO START NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD FEATURE
ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... THOUGH NOT AS
WARM AS WE HAVE BEEN THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
SLOWLY BUT SURELY, SUMMER IS EXITING STAGE RIGHT THIS EVENING.
IN ITS WAKE ARE MVFR/IFR CIGS. THESE WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE
MPX AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH A COUPLE HOUR DELAY IN MVFR CIG ONSET
NEEDED WITH THIS 00Z SET. AFTER THAT, IT'S JUST A QUESTION OF
WHEN DO WE RETURN TO VFR CIGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WELL A RETURN
TO VFR UNLESS YOU'RE AT AXN AND POSSIBLY RNH/EAU. FOR WINDS, WE
WILL SEE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE EAST, BUT SPEEDS
WILL BE COMING DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
KMSP...MVFR CIGS ARE STILL OUT WEST OF OVL AND BDH, SO DID DELAY
ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS OUT TO 6Z. CURRENT MODEL SPREAD PUTS A
RETURN TO VFR CIGS BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z ON TUESDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SHRA. WIND LGT & VRB BCMG NW 10-20G30 KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 15-20G30KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...MPG
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