554
FXUS63 KMPX 131055
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST-CENTRAL WI WILL SEE THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
- OUR FIRST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
OUR ENTIRE CWA WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY AS POST-COLD FRONTAL AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO WI. LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO CHARACTERIZE
MOST OF TODAY, LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH
THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN WHILE AREAS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST WILL SEE LOW TO MID 60S. THE STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK APART AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE CHILLY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN WITH MID TO UPPER 30S
EXPECTED. TO THE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST, LOW TO MID 40S ARE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL STABILIZE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS OF MID TO UPPER
30S WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN ARRIVES DURING THURSDAY MORNING AS A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE RAIN SHIELD NORTH OF THE LOW'S WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN AND WEST-CENTRAL WI DURING THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE WESTERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WITHIN THE NORTHERN JETSTREAM WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE CUTOFF LOW AND TROUGH
EVENTUALLY PHASING TOGETHER, BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL REACHING THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS, THE ODDS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN
RECEIVING RAINFALL THURSDAY LOOK VERY LOW. OVERALL, PLACES THAT DO
RECEIVE RAIN SHOULDN'T EXPECT A SOAKER, BUT 0.25" TO PERHAPS 0.5" IS
POSSIBLE. AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, IT IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IN TURN, THIS WILL SET UP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BRINGING A BRIEF COLD SPELL TO END THE WORK WEEK.
LOW TO MID 50S HIGHS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY MOST
OF THE CWA COULD SEE SUB-FREEZING LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HARD FREEZE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, ESPECIALLY BY THOSE
WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION OUTSIDE.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, KICKING THE TROUGH EAST ALSO. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
STARTING SATURDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S (AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME LOW
70S) POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS RIDGING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CONTINUE INTO MID-NEXT WEEK, GREATLY LIMITING
RAIN CHANCES AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING WITH CIGS SLOWLY
LIFTING TO AT LEAST MVFR AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. MORE NORTHERN
TERMINALS (AXN, STC, RNH) WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATUS THE ENTIRE PERIOD. TERMINALS ELSEWHERE SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST BRIEF VISIT TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK APART. HOWEVER, A
RETURN TO MVFR LOOKS MORE PROBABLE AT MSP AND EAU OVERNIGHT AS
THE THERMAL PROFILE SATURATES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
WILL SLOW TO NEAR OR UNDER 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KMSP...ADDED A TEMPO UNTIL 13Z THIS MORNING FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR WILL DOMINATE UNTIL ABOUT 20Z WHEN CIGS SHOULD
LIFT ENOUGH FOR VFR. BUT, A RETURN TO MVFR LOOKS LIKELY AFTER
09Z WEDNESDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SHRA. WIND LGT & VRB BCMG W 5-10 KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 15-20G30KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...CTG
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