108
FXUS63 KMPX 132106
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL & MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
QUITE THE CHANGE FROM THE RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH OVER THE
WEEKEND AS MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE CLEARER SKIES LEAD TO SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL & EASTERN MINNESOTA UNTIL
SUNSET, & A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW & MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES KEEP
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN
DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON & EVENING.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL ACROSS IOWA & SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE AROUND 0.25-0.50" ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN & AROUND 0.1" OR LESS FARTHER
NORTH.
A COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THURSDAYS SYSTEM
AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES & COLD
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS & HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES & DIMINISHING
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL & SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN. AI WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN THE TRADITIONAL PHYSICAL MODELS & ENSEMBLES
FOR SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS FROM LAST FALL.
THE EXTENT OF THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING
LIKE A GROWING SEASON ENDING FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE COLD SPELL WILL BE BRIEF AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES REBOUND
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY
WIDESPREAD 60S & POTENTIALLY LOW 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE
AT SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AT
INITIALIZATION, THOUGH PARTIAL CLEARING PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY LOOKS TO BE MOVING IN FROM EASTERN SD INTO SW MN. THAT
SAID, STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, INCLUDING RETURNING TO MVFR AFTER CEILINGS TO RISE TO
VFR LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR STRATUS
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEARING GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NW IN THE 5-10KT RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING
THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THRU SUNRISE.
KMSP...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2-3 KFT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN ARE EXPECTED TO BARELY RISE OVER THAT LEVEL THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE FALLING BACK TO
MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT SKIES WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WINDS
WILL BE STRAIGHT DOWN THE 30S INTO THIS EVENING, THEN SLOWLY
VEER TO A N DIRECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
SPEEDS THROUGHOUT WILL RANGE 5-10KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...CHC MVFR/-SHRA. WIND LGT & VRBL BCMG NW 8-12 KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WIND NW 15-20G25-30KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND 10KTS INCREASING TO 15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...JPC
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