638
FXUS63 KMPX 140650
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
150 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE, TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
WARMER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON THURSDAY, MOST LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH CHANCE DECREASING TO THE
NORTHWEST.
- WIDESPREAD FROST, POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY, VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY'S TEMPERATURE, WITH HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE MOVING IN.
THANKS TO THIS HIGH PRESSURE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. THIS
WILL ALL CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MEET A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM
CANADA OVER US ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
FOR OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURES
WITH THIS LOOK TO BE ASSOCIATED THE THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS KEEPS THE MAIN LOW WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE, WE LOOK TO BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS SETUP
ACROSS THE GLOBAL MODELS AND NOW THAT IT IS GETTING CLOSER CAMS.
WHERE THE VARIABILITY REMAINS THOUGH IS HOW FAR NORTH THE EDGE
OF THIS GETS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
SEEING SOME GREATER THAN 0.5 INCH AMOUNTS AS BOTH THE LREF AND
REFS HAVE 50 PERCENT OR MORE OF MEMBERSHIP SHOWING THIS. IT IS
FARTHER NORTH UP TO THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO EAU CLAIRE THAT
THERE IS A DIFFERENCE. THE REFS TAKES THIS 50 PERCENT OF A HALF
INCH LINE UP TO THE TWIN CITIES AND EAU CLAIRE WHILE THE LREF
DOES NOT. RRFS AND HRRR HAVE A SIMILAR SPLIT. SO THE HEAVIER
RAIN GETTING UP FARTHER NORTH IS A POSSIBILITY, BUT WITH MAINLY
THE RRFS/REFS FAMILY OF MODELS AS THE MAIN SUPPORT IT SEEMS LIKE
A UPPER QUARTILE LIKE SOLUTION RATHER THAN THE MOST LIKELY ONE.
LOOKING AHEAD THIS IS OUR MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAIN ON FRIDAY
BEHIND THURSDAY'S RAIN. THIS WILL PUT US INTO A REGION OF PRETTY
STRONG CAA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SETUP FOR A WINDY DAY ON FRIDAY
AND A VERY COLD OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOOKING
INTO GUIDANCE A WIDESPREAD FROST LOOKS VERY LIKELY. IN ADDITION
MUCH OF GUIDANCE HAS A FREEZE POSSIBLE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE URBAN CORE OF THE TWIN CITIES
METRO. AFTER A COLD START SATURDAY WILL WARM UP QUICKLY AS A
RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE WAA WITH THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND BRINGING SATURDAY HIGHS UP INTO
THE LOWER 60S AND SUNDAY'S INTO THE MID 60S. A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS
OVER US WILL PROVIDE FOR MORE WAA OPPORTUNITIES MONDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO BREAK BACK INTO THE
LOWER 70S NEXT WEEK. SO OVERALL A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER AHEAD
WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON LATE THIS WEEK FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR THE TRANSITION SEASONS IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST WHERE WE GET ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WARMER AND COOLER.
EVENTUALLY THE COLD WILL WIN OUT, BUT THE WARM DOESN'T GO
WITHOUT A FIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
A BROKEN TO OVERCAST MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTH AND COVER ALL TERMINALS BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. CIGS
WILL BE NEAR 2000 FEET. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL LIFTING AND BREAKING OCCURS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
VFR SHOULD BE ACHIEVED BY ALL TERMINALS DURING WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS LEFT. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
NEAR 5 KNOTS WILL START THE PERIOD BUT THEY'LL GRADUALLY TURN
CLOCKWISE TO MORE EASTERLY WHILE SLOWING BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
KMSP...MVFR SHOULD LAST UNTIL ABOUT 20Z BEFORE STRATUS BEGINS
TO BREAK APART AND LIFT, ALLOWING VFR TO PREVAIL. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...CHC MVFR/-SHRA. WIND LGT & VRBL BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WIND NW 15-20G30KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...CTG
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