054
FXUS63 KMPX 141042
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
542 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE, TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
WARMER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON THURSDAY, MOST LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH CHANCE DECREASING TO THE
NORTHWEST.
- WIDESPREAD FROST, POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY, VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY'S TEMPERATURE, WITH HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE MOVING IN.
THANKS TO THIS HIGH PRESSURE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. THIS
WILL ALL CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MEET A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM
CANADA OVER US ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
FOR OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURES
WITH THIS LOOK TO BE ASSOCIATED THE THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS KEEPS THE MAIN LOW WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE, WE LOOK TO BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS SETUP
ACROSS THE GLOBAL MODELS AND NOW THAT IT IS GETTING CLOSER CAMS.
WHERE THE VARIABILITY REMAINS THOUGH IS HOW FAR NORTH THE EDGE
OF THIS GETS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
SEEING SOME GREATER THAN 0.5 INCH AMOUNTS AS BOTH THE LREF AND
REFS HAVE 50 PERCENT OR MORE OF MEMBERSHIP SHOWING THIS. IT IS
FARTHER NORTH UP TO THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO EAU CLAIRE THAT
THERE IS A DIFFERENCE. THE REFS TAKES THIS 50 PERCENT OF A HALF
INCH LINE UP TO THE TWIN CITIES AND EAU CLAIRE WHILE THE LREF
DOES NOT. RRFS AND HRRR HAVE A SIMILAR SPLIT. SO THE HEAVIER
RAIN GETTING UP FARTHER NORTH IS A POSSIBILITY, BUT WITH MAINLY
THE RRFS/REFS FAMILY OF MODELS AS THE MAIN SUPPORT IT SEEMS LIKE
A UPPER QUARTILE LIKE SOLUTION RATHER THAN THE MOST LIKELY ONE.
LOOKING AHEAD THIS IS OUR MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAIN ON FRIDAY
BEHIND THURSDAY'S RAIN. THIS WILL PUT US INTO A REGION OF PRETTY
STRONG CAA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SETUP FOR A WINDY DAY ON FRIDAY
AND A VERY COLD OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOOKING
INTO GUIDANCE A WIDESPREAD FROST LOOKS VERY LIKELY. IN ADDITION
MUCH OF GUIDANCE HAS A FREEZE POSSIBLE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE URBAN CORE OF THE TWIN CITIES
METRO. AFTER A COLD START SATURDAY WILL WARM UP QUICKLY AS A
RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE WAA WITH THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND BRINGING SATURDAY HIGHS UP INTO
THE LOWER 60S AND SUNDAY'S INTO THE MID 60S. A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS
OVER US WILL PROVIDE FOR MORE WAA OPPORTUNITIES MONDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO BREAK BACK INTO THE
LOWER 70S NEXT WEEK. SO OVERALL A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER AHEAD
WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON LATE THIS WEEK FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR THE TRANSITION SEASONS IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST WHERE WE GET ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WARMER AND COOLER.
EVENTUALLY THE COLD WILL WIN OUT, BUT THE WARM DOESN'T GO
WITHOUT A FIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS NEAR 2000 FEET WILL CAUSE CONTINUED
MVFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY
LIFT, BREAK APART, AND RETREAT NORTH ALLOWING FOR VFR THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED LOW-END VFR CLOUDS COULD REMAIN OVERNIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FEET ARRIVES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. RWF AND MKT MAY SEE
-SHRA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD SO HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S AT THESE
TERMINALS. NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS GRADUALLY TURN
CLOCKWISE TO NORTHEASTERLY AND SLOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
KMSP...MVFR EXPECTED UNTIL 23Z BEFORE CIGS LIFT TO VFR. -SHRA
WILL BEGIN AROUND 15Z THURSDAY WITH CIGS FALLING TO 1500 FEET.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...CHC MVFR/-SHRA. WIND LGT & VRBL BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WIND NW 15-20G30KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...CTG
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