487
FXUS63 KMQT 152024
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
324 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS ALSO RETURN LATE SATURDAY.
- SOUTHERLY LOW-END GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR
SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY GALES OF 35 TO POSSIBLY
40 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE.
- STILL PLENTY OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MID-LATE
NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, EXPECT RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AS IT FLATTENS OUT. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN
EXTENDING INTO THE UP ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AND CLEAR
SKIES OUT OVER THE FAR WESTERN UP. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
OVERCAST, TEMPS HAVE HUNG AROUND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THIS
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, ANY ADDITIONAL
WARMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE UP AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES CENTERED OVERHEAD RESULTING IN CALM
WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS TONIGHT. LOWS SETTLE INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S, COLDEST INTERIOR CENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE
CLEARING HOLDS ON THE LONGEST. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IS LOW.
(ONLY ~30% CHANCE FOR LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY)
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
RAINFALL RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE LOW EJECTS FROM THE
ROCKIES TOWARDS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. WHILE WE REMAINED SOCKED-IN
WITH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE WESTERN U.P., WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOP IN THE COLD POOL DRAINAGE AREAS AND WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER.
HOWEVER, EXPECT THE FOG CHANCES TO GO AWAY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE SURFACE BEGINS TO WARM UP, EVEN DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER. AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW'S COLD
FRONT, WE COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE SHOWERS DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.P. WITH SOME HELP FROM UPSLOPING. IN ADDITION, WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER US AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO BEGIN PICKING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
(HREF SHOWS A 10 TO 50% CHANCE OF WINDS OVER 40 MPH OVER MOST OF THE
WEST). IN ADDITION, THE HREF SHOWS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
THE WESTERN U.P. POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 45 MPH (AROUND 30% FOR THE
MOST PART). AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE, WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
U.P. AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LINE OF SHOWERS INTENSIFIES AS IT HEADS
EASTWARDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL, SOME
SPOTS IN THE FAR WEST COULD SEE NOTHING, WHILE AREAS IN THE EAST
COULD SEE UP TO AROUND 0.30 INCHES OF LIQUID BY THE TIME THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE-
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, EXPECT THE LAKE-EFFECT
RAIN TO BE RELEGATED TO THE FAR EAST NEAR WHITEFISH BAY AND MAYBE
THE KEWEENAW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LAKE-EFFECT RAIN CHANCES
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AS RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
HIGHS STILL REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AS WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH CYCLES
INTO OUR AREA. THE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SLOWLY
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MID NEXT WEEK, EVENTUALLY
EJECTING A LOW THAT LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/CANADIAN PRAIRIES. WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IMPROVING
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND IT BEING NOW FURTHER WESTWARD THAN
PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED, THE CHANCES FOR THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING
SOLELY RAIN, AT LEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT, HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED (100% CHANCE OF RAIN IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS). AS FOR WHEN
THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS, MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED THE SPREAD WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH
MOST SUITES NOW SHOWING THE RAIN MOVING IN FROM WISCONSIN MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER SOAKING
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME FAIRLY NOTABLE Q-DIVERGENCE
IS SEEN ALOFT AS THE WARM FRONT OF THE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD AND PWATS
NEAR 1.00 INCH. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW THEN
DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THERE IS HIGH MODEL SPREAD IN
REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AS IT IS FAIRLY UNKNOWN HOW MUCH OF THE COLD
AIR FROM CANADA IS ABLE TO SNEAK DOWN INTO THE U.S. FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS BE TRUE, WE MAY SEE
SOME LAKE-EFFECT SNOWFALL LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. IF,
HOWEVER, THE WARMER SOLUTIONS ARE TRUE, WE MAY SEE MORE LAKE-EFFECT
RAIN INSTEAD, AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOWFALL (SHOULD IT OCCUR) WILL HAVE A
HARDER TIME ACCUMULATING AT THE SURFACE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING SKIES OVER
WESTERN WI AND THE MN ARROWHEAD, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
CLEARING OVER THE UP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THIS EVENING. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AT IWD AROUND 18Z AND AT SAW BY 22Z THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS AT CMX MAY ALSO BRIEFLY LIFT TO VFR AROUND THE TIME
OF THE 0Z TAF PERIOD ISSUANCE, BUT SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE LEAVES
LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG THE MVFR CIGS SUPPORTED BY WEST WIND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LINGER ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OPTED TO LET
MVFR PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, BUT WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE IF
CLEARING OCCURS EARLIER. FROM THERE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
INTO TONIGHT FROM THE WEST. SOME IFR FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT SAW
AHEAD OF THE 6Z TAF, CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. CMX MAY ALSO
SEE SOME FOG WITH POTENTIAL VIS RESTRICTIONS SIMILAR TO SAW, BUT
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE LEAVES LOW CONFIDENCE. OPTED FOR A MVFR
VIS AT CMX BY 10Z, BUT THERE IS ~30% CHANCE FOR LOWER VIS (IFR)
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, WEST WINDS AT CMX CONTINUE WITH CALM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AT ALL SITES. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE INTO SATURDAY
WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AT ALL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LEAVE THE AREA TO THE EAST. AS
A LOW LIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS
WEEKEND, WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY
BECOMING 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GALES UP
TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL LAKE (EAST OF THE KEWEENAW); A
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE GALES FROM 7 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY. WHILE THE WINDS WEAKEN A LITTLE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, EXPECT THEM TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW'S COLD FRONT BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
WESTERLY GALES OF 35 KNOTS TO A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS NEAR THE
KEWEENAW POSSIBLE. THUS, A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE 1 PM EST TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY. AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AS THEY VEER NORTHWEST, BECOMING 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN BY
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS TO REMAIN ALL
THAT LONG, AS A LOW LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES HEADS TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR, WITH GALES UP TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS BEING POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY (40 TO 50% CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE NBM). AS THE LOW DIGS
BACK TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, THE MODEL
SPREAD IN THE WINDS GREATLY INCREASES; HOWEVER, SOME STRONGER WINDS
LOOK TO RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW LOOKS TO REAMPLIFY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JABLONSKI
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...JABLONSKI
MARINE...TAP
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