360
FXUS63 KMQT 160733
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
233 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS ALSO RETURN LATE SATURDAY.
- SOUTHERLY LOW-END GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE LAKE.
- STILL PLENTY OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MID-LATE
NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, EXPECT RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AS IT FLATTENS OUT. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN
EXTENDING INTO THE UP ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AND CLEAR
SKIES OUT OVER THE FAR WESTERN UP. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
OVERCAST, TEMPS HAVE HUNG AROUND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THIS
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, ANY ADDITIONAL
WARMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE UP AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES CENTERED OVERHEAD RESULTING IN CALM
WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS TONIGHT. LOWS SETTLE INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S, COLDEST INTERIOR CENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE
CLEARING HOLDS ON THE LONGEST. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IS LOW.
(ONLY ~30% CHANCE FOR LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY)
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE DESERT SW, A
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN U.S. 00Z SUN. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY 12Z SUN AND EXITS THE AREA 00Z MON. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO 00Z MON MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES 12Z MON
AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z TUE WHILE DEVELOPING
A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 12Z TUE WITH MORE REINFORCING ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z TUE AND A RIDGE ON THE EAST
COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND CARVES OUT
A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 12Z WED WHICH THEN HEADS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z THU AND INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z FRI WHERE IT REMAINS INTO 12Z SAT AS RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT FROM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TO COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRI INTO SAT. SOLUTIONS LOOK A BIT
COOLER NOW AND THERE WILL BE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE U.P. STARTING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD AIR FINALLY
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM IS STILL UP IN THE AIR, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON THE
STRONG SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH. THE ONE THING THOUGH IS COLDER AIR IS
FORECAST INTO THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NOW WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM
BEFORE. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SIGNALS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL MAINLY PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
EXCEPTIONS COULD BE AT KSAW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE WHERE FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MAINLY EXPECTING MVFR
VISIBILITIES IF IT DOES DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINAL, BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A 30% CHANCE OF IFR VISIBILITIES BY DAYBREAK.
DAYTIME MIXING SATURDAY WILL ENABLE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE, PERHAPS BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS.
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS A SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON, KSAW IS EXPECTED TO FALL
TO MVFR, MAYBE WITH SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW.
SATURDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE GUSTY WINDS, BUT WITH LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEING POSSIBLE AT KIWD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE LEAVES THE AREA TO THE EAST. AS A LOW LIFTS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS WEEKEND, WINDS BEGIN TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH EVENTUALLY BECOMING 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT WITH GALES UP TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
LAKE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW AND A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED. WHILE THE
WINDS WEAKEN A LITTLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECT THEM TO PICK BACK
UP AGAIN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW'S COLD FRONT BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WESTERLY GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THIS WOULD BE THE SECOND GALE EVENT IN
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY.
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS THEY VEER NORTHWEST, BECOMING 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING. A LOW LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
HEADS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH GALES UP TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS BEING
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY FOR A THIRD POSSIBLE GALE EVENT. AS THE LOW DIGS
BACK TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, THE MODEL
SPREAD IN THE WINDS GREATLY INCREASES; HOWEVER, SOME STRONGER WINDS
LOOK TO RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW LOOKS TO REAMPLIFY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/
SUNDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/
SUNDAY FOR LSZ241>244-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LSZ244-245-265-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JABLONSKI
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...07
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