820
FXUS63 KMQT 161227
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
727 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS ALSO RETURN LATE SATURDAY.
- SOUTHERLY LOW-END GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE LAKE.
- STILL PLENTY OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MID-LATE
NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, EXPECT RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
RAP ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT A
MID LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE UP WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT, IT IS A QUIET
MORNING ACROSS THE UP WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN NOTES THIS MORNING INCLUDE DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE THREAT FOR FOG
FORMATION. GROUND-BASED OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE REPORTING
WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WITH THE
OUTLIERS BEING THE FAR EAST AND TIP OF THE KEWEENAW WHERE 30S
AND 40S ARE PREVAILING. SO FAR, FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM EXCEPT
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 1
MILE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, EXPECT AN UPTICK IN CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, BUT MOST NOTEWORTHY WILL BE THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO
20 MPH RANGE, GUSTING TO 30 MPH (MAINLY WEST AND CENTRAL).
MEANWHILE, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE DESERT SW, A
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN U.S. 00Z SUN. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY 12Z SUN AND EXITS THE AREA 00Z MON. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO 00Z MON MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES 12Z MON
AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z TUE WHILE DEVELOPING
A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 12Z TUE WITH MORE REINFORCING ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z TUE AND A RIDGE ON THE EAST
COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND CARVES OUT
A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 12Z WED WHICH THEN HEADS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z THU AND INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z FRI WHERE IT REMAINS INTO 12Z SAT AS RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT FROM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TO COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRI INTO SAT. SOLUTIONS LOOK A BIT
COOLER NOW AND THERE WILL BE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE U.P. STARTING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD AIR FINALLY
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM IS STILL UP IN THE AIR, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON THE
STRONG SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH. THE ONE THING THOUGH IS COLDER AIR IS
FORECAST INTO THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NOW WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM
BEFORE. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SIGNALS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 726 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
MVFR/IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST AT CMX AND SAW THROUGH MID-
MORNING AS VISIBILITIES REMAIN IMPACTED BY FOG FORMATION. ELSEWHERE,
IWD IS HOLDING STEADY AT VFR LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN THERE UNTIL
TONIGHT WHEN CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
AFTER VFR CONDITIONS AT CMX AND SAW, TOO, LATER THIS MORNING, MVFR
WILL RETURN TO THOSE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FURTHER
DETERIORATION TO IFR/LIFR IS POSSIBLE AT CMX AND SAW LATER
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, DAYTIME MIXING TODAY WILL RESULT IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION, WILL CARRY A LLWS THREAT AT IWD THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE LEAVES THE AREA TO THE EAST. AS A LOW LIFTS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS WEEKEND, WINDS BEGIN TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH EVENTUALLY BECOMING 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT WITH GALES UP TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
LAKE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW AND A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED. WHILE THE
WINDS WEAKEN A LITTLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECT THEM TO PICK BACK
UP AGAIN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW'S COLD FRONT BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WESTERLY GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THIS WOULD BE THE SECOND GALE EVENT IN
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY.
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS THEY VEER NORTHWEST, BECOMING 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING. A LOW LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
HEADS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH GALES UP TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS BEING
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY FOR A THIRD POSSIBLE GALE EVENT. AS THE LOW DIGS
BACK TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, THE MODEL
SPREAD IN THE WINDS GREATLY INCREASES; HOWEVER, SOME STRONGER WINDS
LOOK TO RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW LOOKS TO REAMPLIFY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/
SUNDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/
SUNDAY FOR LSZ241>244-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LSZ244-245-265-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...07
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