777
FXUS63 KMQT 161812
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
112 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS ALSO RETURN TONIGHT.
- SOUTHERLY LOW-END GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE LAKE.
- STILL PLENTY OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MID-LATE
NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, EXPECT RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 111 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS
MOVES INTO THE U.P. LATE TONIGHT. DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER,
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S,
WITH MAYBE A COUPLE OF SPOTS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES POPPING UP TO 50.
WHILE WE MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED DRIZZLE SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DON'T START UNTIL
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT EST. OVERALL, NOT MUCH LIQUID IS EXPECTED TO FALL
OUT OF THE SHOWERS TONIGHT, BUT WE COULD SEE UP TO 0.30 INCHES FALL
OVER THE EASTERN HALF AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCREASES
AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. WHILE CAMS HAVE THE SHOWERS FORMING A
LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST THAN YESTERDAY, IT'S LIKELY (70% CHANCE)
THAT IRONWOOD AND IT'S SURROUNDING AREA REMAINS DRY TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO THE RAIN SHOWERS, WE COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO OVER THE WEST AS SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (10 TO 20% CHANCE). WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT; EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EXPECTED BY THE HREF
(AROUND 100% CHANCE).
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE DESERT SW, A
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN U.S. 00Z SUN. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY 12Z SUN AND EXITS THE AREA 00Z MON. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO 00Z MON MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES 12Z MON
AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z TUE WHILE DEVELOPING
A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 12Z TUE WITH MORE REINFORCING ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z TUE AND A RIDGE ON THE EAST
COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND CARVES OUT
A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 12Z WED WHICH THEN HEADS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z THU AND INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z FRI WHERE IT REMAINS INTO 12Z SAT AS RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT FROM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TO COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRI INTO SAT. SOLUTIONS LOOK A BIT
COOLER NOW AND THERE WILL BE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE U.P. STARTING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD AIR FINALLY
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM IS STILL UP IN THE AIR, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON THE
STRONG SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH. THE ONE THING THOUGH IS COLDER AIR IS
FORECAST INTO THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NOW WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM
BEFORE. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SIGNALS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
DEGRADING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, EXPECT CIGS TO GO GET DOWN TO THE
LOWER HALF OF MVFR CONDITIONS. AS RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP AROUND
MIDNIGHT EST AND CONTINUE EASTWARDS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO POSSIBLY DETERIORATE TO OR NEAR IFR AT TIMES
OVER KCMX AND KSAW LATE TONIGHT (KIWD COULD BE DRY TONIGHT). ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, EXPECT SOME GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR
SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY VFR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
PARTICULARLY OVER KIWD.
AS GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECT TO SEE SOME LOW-
LEVEL TURBULENCE DURING THE TIMES WHEN THE GUSTY WINDS AREN'T MAKING
IT TO THE SURFACE, WITH WINDS AT 2 KFT BEING AROUND 50 KNOTS
TONIGHT! HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE GUSTY WINDS SEEM FAIRLY CONTINUOUS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND THE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
SEEMS RATHER SPOTTY, I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE LEAVES THE AREA TO THE EAST. AS A LOW LIFTS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS WEEKEND, WINDS BEGIN TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH EVENTUALLY BECOMING 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT WITH GALES UP TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
LAKE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW AND A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED. WHILE THE
WINDS WEAKEN A LITTLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECT THEM TO PICK BACK
UP AGAIN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW'S COLD FRONT BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WESTERLY GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THIS WOULD BE THE SECOND GALE EVENT IN
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY.
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS THEY VEER NORTHWEST, BECOMING 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING. A LOW LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
HEADS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH GALES UP TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS BEING
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY FOR A THIRD POSSIBLE GALE EVENT. AS THE LOW DIGS
BACK TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, THE MODEL
SPREAD IN THE WINDS GREATLY INCREASES; HOWEVER, SOME STRONGER WINDS
LOOK TO RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW LOOKS TO REAMPLIFY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/
SUNDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/
SUNDAY FOR LSZ241>244-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LSZ244-245-265-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...07
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