325
FXUS63 KMQT 170005
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
705 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS ALSO RETURN TONIGHT.
- SOUTHERLY LOW-END GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE.
- A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING A
ROUND OF RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 111 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS
MOVES INTO THE U.P. LATE TONIGHT. DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER,
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S,
WITH MAYBE A COUPLE OF SPOTS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES POPPING UP TO 50.
WHILE WE MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED DRIZZLE SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DON'T START UNTIL
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT EST. OVERALL, NOT MUCH LIQUID IS EXPECTED TO FALL
OUT OF THE SHOWERS TONIGHT, BUT WE COULD SEE UP TO 0.30 INCHES FALL
OVER THE EASTERN HALF AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCREASES
AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. WHILE CAMS HAVE THE SHOWERS FORMING A
LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST THAN YESTERDAY, IT'S LIKELY (70% CHANCE)
THAT IRONWOOD AND IT'S SURROUNDING AREA REMAINS DRY TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO THE RAIN SHOWERS, WE COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO OVER THE WEST AS SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (10 TO 20% CHANCE). WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT; EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EXPECTED BY THE HREF
(AROUND 100% CHANCE).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE DESERT SW, A
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN U.S. 00Z SUN. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY 12Z SUN AND EXITS THE AREA 00Z MON WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH; EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EARLY SUNDAY TO TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO 00Z MON MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
12Z MON AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z TUE WHILE
DEVELOPING A NEGATIVE TILT. RAIN SPREADS NORTHWARD INTO THE UP LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH MORE REINFORCING ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z TUE AND A RIDGE ON THE EAST
COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND CARVES OUT
A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 12Z WED WITH A SURFACE
LOW CLOSING OFF BY WED EVENING OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST. THIS
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THE
LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS OVER SOMEWHERE OVER NEW ENGLAND OR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED SYSTEM RAIN/SNOW
SOUTH OF THE UP. HOWEVER, WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO OUR FLOW
MIDWEEK ONWARD, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IN POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN UP. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES INITIALLY ABOVE AVERAGE TO START
OFF THE WEEK WILL RUN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. WHILE RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, WE MAY SEE SNOW MIXING IN AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP OVER THE REGION COURTESY OF THAT DEEPENING LOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
LOW PRES OVER EASTERN ND WILL TRACK NE, REACHING NORTHERN ONTARIO ON
SUN WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS UPPER MI. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, S TO SE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AT IWD/CMX/SAW.
WINDS AT 2000FT WILL BE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE, BUT WITH SFC GUSTINESS
TO AROUND 20KT, FLOW SHOULD BE MORE TURBULENT SFC TO 2000FT RATHER
THAN LLWS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT AT CMX/SAW, AND VFR
SHOULD BECOME MVFR AT IWD BY LATE EVENING. EXPECT SHRA TO DEVELOP
DURING THE NIGHT WITH CMX/SAW MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. WITH THE
SHRA, IFR IS A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY AT SAW UNDER UPSLOPE
SOUTHERLY FLOW. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL THEN VEER WINDS TO THE SW
TO W ON SUN WITH GUSTS 25-30KT AT IWD/SAW AND UP TO AROUND 35KT AT
CMX. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR AT IWD/SAW EARLY SUN
AFTN AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA. AT CMX, MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON AS INFLUX OF COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTS STRATOCU.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO ONTARIO
BY THE EARLY HOURS OF SUNDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS EVENING INCREASE TO GALES UP TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE
CENTRAL LAKE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW. WHILE THE WINDS WEAKEN A LITTLE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECT THEM TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN FROM THE
WEST BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW'S COLD FRONT BY EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH WESTERLY GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE WEST HALF
OF THE LAKE. THIS WOULD BE THE SECOND GALE EVENT IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS THEY VEER NORTHWEST, BECOMING 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING. A LOW LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
HEADS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH GALES UP TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS BEING
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY FOR A THIRD POSSIBLE GALE EVENT. AS THE LOW DIGS
BACK TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, THE MODEL
SPREAD IN THE WINDS GREATLY INCREASES; HOWEVER, SOME STRONGER WINDS
LOOK TO RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW LOOKS TO REAMPLIFY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/
SUNDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TO 10 PM EST /9 PM
CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ241>244-263-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ244-245-265-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...LC
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