385
FXUS63 KMQT 170719
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
219 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WESTERLY GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE.
- A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING A
ROUND OF RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 111 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS
MOVES INTO THE U.P. LATE TONIGHT. DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER,
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S,
WITH MAYBE A COUPLE OF SPOTS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES POPPING UP TO 50.
WHILE WE MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED DRIZZLE SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DON'T START UNTIL
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT EST. OVERALL, NOT MUCH LIQUID IS EXPECTED TO FALL
OUT OF THE SHOWERS TONIGHT, BUT WE COULD SEE UP TO 0.30 INCHES FALL
OVER THE EASTERN HALF AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCREASES
AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. WHILE CAMS HAVE THE SHOWERS FORMING A
LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST THAN YESTERDAY, IT'S LIKELY (70% CHANCE)
THAT IRONWOOD AND IT'S SURROUNDING AREA REMAINS DRY TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO THE RAIN SHOWERS, WE COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO OVER THE WEST AS SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (10 TO 20% CHANCE). WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT; EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EXPECTED BY THE HREF
(AROUND 100% CHANCE).
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW, A
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH IN THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 00Z MON. THE CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO HEADS NORTHEAST AND
BECOMES A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z TUE
AND THEN HEADS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE GETS ABSORBED INTO ENERGY FROM
THE PACIFIC NW THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. DEEPER MOISTURE
AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO TUE. IT WILL BE DRY TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE PCPN MOVES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB CLOSED LOW IN THE
FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z WED WHICH THEN DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU. UPPER RIDGING THEN
MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES 12Z THU AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH 12Z FRI AS
TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE ERN U.S. TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT INTO 12Z SUN. TEMPERATURES GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL
TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW WILL MIX IN
TOGETHER ACROSS THE WEST HALF STARTING ON WED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
LOW PRES OVER SE MANITOBA WILL TRACK NE TO NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT AT IWD/CMX/SAW.
WINDS AT 2000FT WILL BE AROUND 40KT, BUT WITH SFC GUSTINESS TO 20-
25KT AT TIMES, FLOW SHOULD BE MORE TURBULENT 2000FT TO SFC RATHER
THAN LLWS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. SHRA
MAY AFFECT CMX/SAW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WITH IFR A
POSSIBILITY, PARTICULARLY AT SAW UNDER UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DURING TODAY, PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL VEER WINDS TO THE SW TO W.
THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 25KT AT IWD/SAW AND UP TO AROUND
35KT AT CMX. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR AT IWD/SAW EARLY
TO MID AFTN AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. AT CMX, MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY HOLD
ON INTO THE EVENING AS INFLUX OF COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTS STRATOCU.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY LATE MORNING, WITH WESTERLY GALES OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE WEST HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT, WINDS
WEAKEN AS THEY VEER NORTHWEST, BECOMING 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN BY
MONDAY MORNING. A LOW LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HEADS
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH GALES UP TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS BEING POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY FOR A SECOND POSSIBLE GALE EVENT. AS THE LOW DIGS BACK
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, THE MODEL
SPREAD IN THE WINDS GREATLY INCREASES; HOWEVER, SOME STRONGER WINDS
LOOK TO RETURN BY LATE WEEK AS THE LOW LOOKS TO REAMPLIFY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ241>244-263-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ244-245-
265-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07
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