858
FXUS63 KMQT 171701
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1201 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UP TODAY AND UP TO 40 MPH OVER THE
KEWEENAW.
- WESTERLY GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE.
- A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING A
ROUND OF RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ON
THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT, ENOUGH INSTABILITY WAS ABLE TO SUPPORT SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AMID THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN DRIFTING ACROSS
THE UP ALL NIGHT. CURRENTLY, ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY ON THE
RADAR MOSAIC IS CONCENTRATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE LIGHTNING STRIKES DWINDLING QUICKLY.
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING, THE REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS
WILL EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS WELL WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
AND IT WILL BE DRY OVER ALL OF THE UP BY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF TO LOW/MID 50S OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND SOUTH.
EXPECT LITTLE REPRIEVE, THOUGH, FROM THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH OVER THE WEST AND UP
TO 40 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW, A
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH IN THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 00Z MON. THE CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO HEADS NORTHEAST AND
BECOMES A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z TUE
AND THEN HEADS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE GETS ABSORBED INTO ENERGY FROM
THE PACIFIC NW THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. DEEPER MOISTURE
AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO TUE. IT WILL BE DRY TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE PCPN MOVES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB CLOSED LOW IN THE
FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z WED WHICH THEN DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU. UPPER RIDGING THEN
MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES 12Z THU AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH 12Z FRI AS
TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE ERN U.S. TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT INTO 12Z SUN. TEMPERATURES GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL
TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW WILL MIX IN
TOGETHER ACROSS THE WEST HALF STARTING ON WED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
EXPECT THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. IN ADDITION, EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN, ALTHOUGH KCMX
LOOKS TO HOLD ONTO THE GUSTIER WINDS THE LONGEST THROUGH EVEN MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT SOME LLWS AT KSAW OVERNIGHT AS WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE CONTEST WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 40 KT AT 2 KFT. KCMX COULD SEE SOME LLWS TOO, BUT WITH
MIXING BRINGING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, DECIDED NOT TO ADD LLWS TO THEIR TAF. CALM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY LATE MORNING, WITH WESTERLY GALES OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE WEST HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT, WINDS
WEAKEN AS THEY VEER NORTHWEST, BECOMING 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN BY
MONDAY MORNING. A LOW LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HEADS
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH GALES UP TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS BEING POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY FOR A SECOND POSSIBLE GALE EVENT. AS THE LOW DIGS BACK
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, THE MODEL
SPREAD IN THE WINDS GREATLY INCREASES; HOWEVER, SOME STRONGER WINDS
LOOK TO RETURN BY LATE WEEK AS THE LOW LOOKS TO REAMPLIFY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ242-263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ243-244-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...07
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