891
FXUS63 KMQT 171841
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
141 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WEST GUSTS UP TO 30 OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF, WITH GUSTS OF
40 TO 45 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.
- WESTERLY GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE.
- A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING A
ROUND OF RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THUNDER
BAY AND THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON,
EXPECT THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WEST
HALF THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGING LOOKS TO QUICKLY MOVE
BACK OVER THE AREA. THUS, MOST OF THE AREAS LOOK TO CALM DOWN
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE KEWEENAW MAY HOLD ONTO THE GUSTIER WINDS
LONGER TONIGHT WITH SOME HELP FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. SPEAKING OF THE
KEWEENAW, WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATION AT HOUGHTON AIRPORT SHOWING
WINDS UP TO 48 MPH, DECIDED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE NORTHERN
HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES FOR THE HIGH WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH
UNTIL 7 PM EST. THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS COULD KNOCK DOWN SOME
UNSECURED ITEMS AS WELL AS SOME TREE LIMBS; BE CAREFUL DRIVING IN
THE KEWEENAW THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, AND SECURED YOUR
LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT THE WINDS TO ONLY GET UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH (AS OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ALREADY SHOWING).
AS THE CLOUD COVER MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, WE COULD
SEE A FEW SPOTS GET TO THE LOW 50S, MAINLY IN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER, WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING UNMITIGATED TONIGHT VIA
THE CLEAR SKIES, EXPECT THE LOWS TO TANK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
IN THE INTERIOR AREAS; I WOULDN'T EVEN RULE OUT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
GETTING LOWER IN THE COLD SPOTS, BUT I DON'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO GO BELOW WHAT THE DETERMINISTIC NBM HAS RIGHT NOW.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW, A
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH IN THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 00Z MON. THE CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO HEADS NORTHEAST AND
BECOMES A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z TUE
AND THEN HEADS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE GETS ABSORBED INTO ENERGY FROM
THE PACIFIC NW THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. DEEPER MOISTURE
AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO TUE. IT WILL BE DRY TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE PCPN MOVES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB CLOSED LOW IN THE
FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z WED WHICH THEN DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU. UPPER RIDGING THEN
MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES 12Z THU AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH 12Z FRI AS
TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE ERN U.S. TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT INTO 12Z SUN. TEMPERATURES GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL
TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW WILL MIX IN
TOGETHER ACROSS THE WEST HALF STARTING ON WED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
EXPECT THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. IN ADDITION, EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN, ALTHOUGH KCMX
LOOKS TO HOLD ONTO THE GUSTIER WINDS THE LONGEST THROUGH EVEN MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT SOME LLWS AT KSAW OVERNIGHT AS WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE CONTEST WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 40 KT AT 2 KFT. KCMX COULD SEE SOME LLWS TOO, BUT WITH
MIXING BRINGING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, DECIDED NOT TO ADD LLWS TO THEIR TAF. CALM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY LATE MORNING, WITH WESTERLY GALES OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE WEST HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT, WINDS
WEAKEN AS THEY VEER NORTHWEST, BECOMING 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN BY
MONDAY MORNING. A LOW LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HEADS
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH GALES UP TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS BEING POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY FOR A SECOND POSSIBLE GALE EVENT. AS THE LOW DIGS BACK
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, THE MODEL
SPREAD IN THE WINDS GREATLY INCREASES; HOWEVER, SOME STRONGER WINDS
LOOK TO RETURN BY LATE WEEK AS THE LOW LOOKS TO REAMPLIFY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ242-263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ243-244-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...07
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