993
FXUS63 KMQT 180538
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1238 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING A
ROUND OF RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THUNDER
BAY AND THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON,
EXPECT THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WEST
HALF THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGING LOOKS TO QUICKLY MOVE
BACK OVER THE AREA. THUS, MOST OF THE AREAS LOOK TO CALM DOWN
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE KEWEENAW MAY HOLD ONTO THE GUSTIER WINDS
LONGER TONIGHT WITH SOME HELP FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. SPEAKING OF THE
KEWEENAW, WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATION AT HOUGHTON AIRPORT SHOWING
WINDS UP TO 48 MPH, DECIDED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE NORTHERN
HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES FOR THE HIGH WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH
UNTIL 7 PM EST. THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS COULD KNOCK DOWN SOME
UNSECURED ITEMS AS WELL AS SOME TREE LIMBS; BE CAREFUL DRIVING IN
THE KEWEENAW THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, AND SECURED YOUR
LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT THE WINDS TO ONLY GET UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH (AS OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ALREADY SHOWING).
AS THE CLOUD COVER MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, WE COULD
SEE A FEW SPOTS GET TO THE LOW 50S, MAINLY IN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER, WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING UNMITIGATED TONIGHT VIA
THE CLEAR SKIES, EXPECT THE LOWS TO TANK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
IN THE INTERIOR AREAS; I WOULDN'T EVEN RULE OUT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
GETTING LOWER IN THE COLD SPOTS, BUT I DON'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO GO BELOW WHAT THE DETERMINISTIC NBM HAS RIGHT NOW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW, A
CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS AND A TROUGH MOVING INTO QUEBEC AND BY 12Z
MON. THE CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS HEADS NORTHEAST AND BECOMES A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z TUE AND THEN
HEADS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
12Z TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE GETS ABSORBED INTO ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC
NW THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS
OVER THE AREA INTO TUE. IT WILL BE DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
PCPN MOVES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS LIFT NORTH OF THE UP BY
TUESDAY EVENING, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA BRIEFLY DRYING OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB CLOSED LOW IN THE
FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z WED WHICH THEN DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU. UPPER RIDGING THEN
MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES 12Z THU AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH 12Z FRI AS
TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE ERN U.S. TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT INTO 12Z SUN. TEMPERATURES GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL
TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW WILL MIX IN
TOGETHER ACROSS THE WEST HALF STARTING ON WED, THOUGH ENSEMBLES ARE
FAVORING WET SNOW TOTALS BELOW AN INCH. RAIN SHOWERS, MIXING WITH
SNOW AT TIMES, CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME SPOTTY
ACTIVITY MAINLY CONTAINED TO THE EASTERN UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
STACKED LOW SPINS OVER NEW ENGLAND OR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
A DRY AIR MASS HAS ARRIVED OVER THE AREA, AND IT WILL LINGER TODAY,
ALLOWING VFR TO CONTINUE AT IWD/CMX/SAW. AT CMX, WINDS GUSTING TO 20-
25KT INITIALLY WILL FALL OFF TO UNDER 10KT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KT THRU TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS. LOW
PRES LIFTING NNE TOWARD MINNESOTA TONIGHT WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO
UPPER MI. THIS RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE AT IWD BY LATE EVENING AND AT
CMX/SAW NEAR OR JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH THE RAIN, CIGS
MAY FALL TO MVFR AT IWD TOWARD 06Z. OTHERWISE, ALL TERMINALS WILL
SEE CIGS FALL THRU MVFR TO IFR BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD. LLWS WILL
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT IF SFC WINDS CAN REMAIN
DECOUPLED FROM WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO 40-50KT AT 2000FT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
WESTERLY GALES TO 35 TO 40KTS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, BUT GALES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT, WINDS WEAKEN AS
THEY VEER NORTHWEST, BECOMING 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN BY MONDAY
MORNING WHILE BACKING TO THE SOUTH. A LOW LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND HEADS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH GALES UP TO AT LEAST 35
KNOTS BEING POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY FOR A SECOND GALE EVENT. AS THE LOW
DIGS BACK TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, THE
MODEL SPREAD IN THE WINDS GREATLY INCREASES; HOWEVER, SOME STRONGER
WINDS LOOK TO RETURN BY LATE WEEK AS THE LOW LOOKS TO REAMPLIFY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...LC
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