528
FXUS63 KMQT 180826
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
326 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING A ROUND OF
RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING OVER TO
MOSTLY ALL SNOW BY WED NIGHT.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ON AND OFF RAIN/SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.
- NEXT GALE COMES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL BE A
STRONG GALE ON LAKE SUPERIOR.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THUNDER
BAY AND THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON,
EXPECT THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WEST
HALF THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGING LOOKS TO QUICKLY MOVE
BACK OVER THE AREA. THUS, MOST OF THE AREAS LOOK TO CALM DOWN
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE KEWEENAW MAY HOLD ONTO THE GUSTIER WINDS
LONGER TONIGHT WITH SOME HELP FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. SPEAKING OF THE
KEWEENAW, WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATION AT HOUGHTON AIRPORT SHOWING
WINDS UP TO 48 MPH, DECIDED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE NORTHERN
HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES FOR THE HIGH WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH
UNTIL 7 PM EST. THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS COULD KNOCK DOWN SOME
UNSECURED ITEMS AS WELL AS SOME TREE LIMBS; BE CAREFUL DRIVING IN
THE KEWEENAW THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, AND SECURED YOUR
LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT THE WINDS TO ONLY GET UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH (AS OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ALREADY SHOWING).
AS THE CLOUD COVER MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, WE COULD
SEE A FEW SPOTS GET TO THE LOW 50S, MAINLY IN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER, WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING UNMITIGATED TONIGHT VIA
THE CLEAR SKIES, EXPECT THE LOWS TO TANK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
IN THE INTERIOR AREAS; I WOULDN'T EVEN RULE OUT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
GETTING LOWER IN THE COLD SPOTS, BUT I DON'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO GO BELOW WHAT THE DETERMINISTIC NBM HAS RIGHT NOW.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.
AND A NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z TUE. THIS
NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
12Z TUE WITH TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES AND THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO
THIS TROUGH AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z WED.
THIS CLOSED LOW THEN HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN 00Z THU AND
TO SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY 12Z THU. DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA BY 06Z TUE AND THIS LASTS
INTO TUE BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT 06Z WED BEFORE RETURNING FROM
THE EAST 18Z WED INTO 12Z THU. COLD AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO THE FAR WEST WHERE SNOW WILL MIX INTO WITH THE RAIN. WED
MORNING, THERE WILL BE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE U.P. AND THEN THE AIR GETS COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH THE MAJORITY OF IT
COMING WED NIGHT IN A FEW PLACES.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG AND ALMOST
VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z THU WHICH MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRI AND
REMAINS THERE INTO 12Z SAT. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES 12Z FRI.
TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
A DRY AIR MASS HAS ARRIVED OVER THE AREA, AND IT WILL LINGER TODAY,
ALLOWING VFR TO CONTINUE AT IWD/CMX/SAW. AT CMX, WINDS GUSTING TO 20-
25KT INITIALLY WILL FALL OFF TO UNDER 10KT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KT THRU TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS. LOW
PRES LIFTING NNE TOWARD MINNESOTA TONIGHT WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO
UPPER MI. THIS RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE AT IWD BY LATE EVENING AND AT
CMX/SAW NEAR OR JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH THE RAIN, CIGS
MAY FALL TO MVFR AT IWD TOWARD 06Z. OTHERWISE, ALL TERMINALS WILL
SEE CIGS FALL THRU MVFR TO IFR BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD. LLWS WILL
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT IF SFC WINDS CAN REMAIN
DECOUPLED FROM WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO 40-50KT AT 2000FT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
A LOW LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HEADS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT GALE
EVENT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND THIS WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND A GALE WARNING FOR THE WHOLE LAKE HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THIS
MORNING INCREASE RAPIDLY TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN EAST
TO SOUTHEAST GALES UP TO 45 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS THEN DROP DOWN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS LATE TUE NIGHT. AS
THE LOW DIGS BACK TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY, SOME STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO RETURN BY THURSDAY WITH WINDS
AT LEAST UP TO 30 KNOTS AND POSSIBLE GALES THEN.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 1 PM EST /NOON
CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ242>244-263-
264.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ246>248.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07
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