159
FXUS63 KMQT 181950
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
250 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING A ROUND OF
RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING OVER TO
MOSTLY ALL SNOW BY WED NIGHT.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ON AND OFF RAIN/SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.
- NEXT GALE COMES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL BE A
STRONG GALE ON LAKE SUPERIOR.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
GOES-16 DAY CLOUD PHASE RGB IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
UP EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW WHICH THE
RAP ANALYSIS HAS AT 990MB OVER KANSAS AT 18Z. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT RACES NORTHEAST, REACHING
THE MINNEAPOLIS VICINITY AT AROUND 983 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING PER
THE 12Z GEFS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES ALONG
THE MI/WI STATE LINE AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS BY
12Z TUESDAY LOOK TO BE A WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF
RAIN, THOUGH THE UPSLOPING AREAS OF MENOMINEE COUNTY AND THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD SEE NEAR 3/4 INCH AS EASTERLY WINDS
RAMP UP AND PROVIDE AN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION.
THE WINDS WILL PRESENT THE MORE HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS, AS
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, PRESSURE FALLS, AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION HELPING MIX INTO A 30-40 KT 925 MB LAYER WILL ALL
CONTRIBUTE TOWARDS GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE HREF SUGGESTS 40-80% CHANCES OF 45 MPH WIND GUST POTENTIAL
OVER THE WEST HALF OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THE HREF TENDS TO
OVERESTIMATE WIND GUST POTENTIAL. STILL, LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HIGHEST GUST POTENTIAL TO BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA,
SO A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY AND
NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY, THOUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
ONTONAGON, GOGEBIC, AND BARAGA COUNTIES MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A
RARE (>20% CHANCE) GUST UP TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.
AND A NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z TUE. THIS
NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
12Z TUE WITH TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES AND THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO
THIS TROUGH AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z WED.
THIS CLOSED LOW THEN HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN 00Z THU AND
TO SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY 12Z THU. DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA BY 06Z TUE AND THIS LASTS
INTO TUE BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT 06Z WED BEFORE RETURNING FROM
THE EAST 18Z WED INTO 12Z THU. COLD AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO THE FAR WEST WHERE SNOW WILL MIX INTO WITH THE RAIN. WED
MORNING, THERE WILL BE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE U.P. AND THEN THE AIR GETS COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH THE MAJORITY OF IT
COMING WED NIGHT IN A FEW PLACES.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG AND ALMOST
VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z THU WHICH MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRI AND
REMAINS THERE INTO 12Z SAT. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES 12Z FRI.
TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING UNDER A
DRY AIRMASS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARRIVES IN THE AREA, BRINGING -SHRA, GUSTY WINDS, LLWS, AND LOW
CIGS/VIS. -SHRA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FIRST AT IWD AROUND 02Z AND
ARRIVE AT SAW/CMX AT AROUND 05Z, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING
AROUND 05Z AT IWD AND 08-09Z AT SAW/CMX. FURTHER DETERIORATION TO
IFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES IN THE 14-15Z TIMEFRAME WITH ABOUT 20%
CHANCES OF LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE CONDITIONS LOWER THAN IFR, BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH
LATER UPDATES. LLWS HAS BEEN ADDED AT ALL SITES AS A LOW LEVEL JET
PASSES OVER THE UP OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
A LOW LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HEADS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT GALE
EVENT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND THIS WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND A GALE WARNING FOR THE WHOLE LAKE HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THIS
MORNING INCREASE RAPIDLY TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN EAST
TO SOUTHEAST GALES UP TO 45 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS THEN DROP DOWN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS LATE TUE NIGHT. AS
THE LOW DIGS BACK TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY, SOME STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO RETURN BY THURSDAY WITH WINDS
AT LEAST UP TO 30 KNOTS AND POSSIBLE GALES THEN.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ013.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 1 PM EST /NOON
CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/
TUESDAY FOR LSZ241>244-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ245-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ246>248.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...07
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