672
FXUS63 KMQT 190305
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1005 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A WET PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE RAIN, BUT SOME SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY WILL POSE SOME RISK
FOR POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE KEWEENAW, WHICH MAY APPROACH 50 MPH. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY THERE.
- STRONG WINDS WILL BUILD LARGE WAVES ON THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN MINOR BEACH EROSION OR LAKESHORE
FLOODING ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN LAKESHORES OF KEWEENAW COUNTY
AND IN DELTA COUNTY, SOUTH OF ESCANABA AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE GARDEN PENINSULA.
- EAST TO SOUTHEAST GALES, WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS, ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD LARGE WAVES
WILL DEVELOP IN THIS PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN UP THIS EVENING, AND
THOUGH WINDS REMAIN BENIGN SO FAR, EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO SET
IN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS LATEST UPDATE, WINDS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY - PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN UP AND
NEARER THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE IN ALGER COUNTY TO ALIGN WITH
STRONGER GUSTS PRESENT IN MANY OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL RUNS. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER 40-50MPH GUSTS LAKESIDE IN ALGER COUNTY,
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALGER COUNTY FOR TUESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
GOES-16 DAY CLOUD PHASE RGB IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
UP EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW WHICH THE
RAP ANALYSIS HAS AT 990MB OVER KANSAS AT 18Z. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT RACES NORTHEAST, REACHING
THE MINNEAPOLIS VICINITY AT AROUND 983 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING PER
THE 12Z GEFS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES ALONG
THE MI/WI STATE LINE AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS BY
12Z TUESDAY LOOK TO BE A WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF
RAIN, THOUGH THE UPSLOPING AREAS OF MENOMINEE COUNTY AND THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD SEE NEAR 3/4 INCH AS EASTERLY WINDS
RAMP UP AND PROVIDE AN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION.
THE WINDS WILL PRESENT THE MORE HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS, AS
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, PRESSURE FALLS, AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION HELPING MIX INTO A 30-40 KT 925 MB LAYER WILL ALL
CONTRIBUTE TOWARDS GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE HREF SUGGESTS 40-80% CHANCES OF 45 MPH WIND GUST POTENTIAL
OVER THE WEST HALF OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THE HREF TENDS TO
OVERESTIMATE WIND GUST POTENTIAL. STILL, LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HIGHEST GUST POTENTIAL TO BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA,
SO A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY AND
NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY, THOUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
ONTONAGON, GOGEBIC, AND BARAGA COUNTIES MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A
RARE (>20% CHANCE) GUST UP TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINSITIC MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE PACKAGES THIS MORNING, SUGGESTING THE MAIN ITEM
OF INTEREST WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW AND
MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM GOES 16 AND RAP SURFACE/HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOW THE INITIAL CLOSED CIRCULATION ALOFT LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST,
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT, ALLOWING THE
SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS TONIGHT. BY 12Z
TUESDAY, GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLES SHOW TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE LOW
BEING POSITIONED OVER WEST/CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH THE SYSTEM'S
OCCLUDED FRONT PRESSING NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. FRONTALLY
FORCED RAIN WITHIN A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE, IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING
AND APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE DAY. THERE'S
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES THAT A WIDESPREAD
0.25-0.75 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE REALZIED BEFORE THE SYSTEM'S DRY
SLOT LIFTS IN LATE TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES OF EXCEEDING 0.5", PER EPS
AND GEFS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AT 60% OR GREATER. TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING LOW WILL ALSO RESULT
IN PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 7 TO 9MB PER 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS, PARTICIARLY NEAR THE
LAKESHORES OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY, LAKE MICHIGAN, AND IN THE
KEWEENAW WILL GROW TO 35-50 MPH WHILE WIDESPREAD 25 TO 30 MPH WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS >50MPH, SHOULD MIXING BE EFFECTIVE. OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY.
OPTED TO WAIT ON ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE FOR THE TIME BEING, ALLOWING
THE NEXT CREW A SECOND LOOK. THE FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL KICK THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND LIGHTEN AS
THE GRADIENT FORCES RELAX AND DAYTIME MIXING ENDS. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL RESULT IN LARGE WAVES BUILDING ON THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN MINOR BEACH EROSION OR MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING. OPTED TO
ISSUE A LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DELTA COUNTY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
ESCANABA AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE EASTERN SHORES OF THE GARDEN
PENINSULA.
RAIN WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS INTO MANTITOBA. OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE MID-LEVEL LOW
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST WHILE THE DRY SLOT OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES
OVERHEAD. AS THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE MIGRATES EAST, IT WILL AGAIN
AMPLIFY, RESULTING IN A SECOND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR LAKE
HURON BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY WOBBLE AROUND
MICHIGAN WHILE OCCLUDING THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A THIRD LOW
DEVELOPS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS FINAL FEATURE LOOKS TO
OCCLUDE ON FRIDAY, THEN SHIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE RESULTS OF THIS EVOLUTION WILL BE TO KEEP SYNOPTIC RAIN POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY FOR THE EAST, THEN LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP BECOMING THE NORM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. RAIN SHOULD
SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO NIGHT, PARTICULARLY FOR ANY
PRECIP AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES ACROSS THE WEST HALF AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SPOTS OF THE EAST. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT, MAINLY AN INCH
OR TWO OR LESS.
EVENTUALLY, THE MID-LEVEL LOW EXITS EAST, LEAVING BEHIND CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -2C. THIS SHOULD KEEP LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SATURDAY.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY, WITH A MORE UNCERTAIN PATTERN DEVELOPING AFTEWARDS.
A BRIEF, PSUEDO-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CONUS
AFTERWARDS BUT THIS LOOKS SHORTLIVED AS AN EASTWARD MIGRATING
SHORTWAVE INTERUPTS THIS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINY THAT FAR OUT, BUT THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS
APPEARS TO BRING 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO -5C FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS, GUSTY WINDS,
LLWS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBLITY. SHOWERS WILL PUSH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA, ARRIVING AT IWD AROUND 02Z
AND AND TO SAW AND CMX AROUND 05Z. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AROUND 05Z AT IWD AND BY 09Z AT SAW AND CMX, WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z. LLWS HAS BEEN ADDED AT
ALL SITES AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVER THE UP OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF A MID-LEVEL LOW INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK.
THE FIRST SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS PRECEEDING. A VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SOUTHEAST GALES LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. INTERAL PROBABLISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A ~25% CHANCE STORM
FORCE WINDS MAY BE REALIZED EAST AND NORTH OF THE KEWEENAW. THESE
STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH A LONG FETCH, COULD SUPPORT WAVES ABOVE 15
FEET ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE LAKE TUESDAY. A
QUICK WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
TUESDAY EVENING. RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF SOUTHWEST
GALES TO 35KTS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE.
THIS LOW WILL DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW NEAR LAKE HURON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH TO NEAR THE ST. MARYS WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE FALLING BACK SOUTH OVER MAINLAND MICHIGAN THURSDAY.
THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW DEEP THIS SECONDARY LOW WILL END
UP AND EXACTLY WHERE IT'LL PRESS, BUT AT THE VERY LEAST, NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING TO NEAR 30KTS. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DEEPER SURFACE LOW, SUGGESTING
GALES MAY OCCUR. THIS WILL WARRENT CLOSER. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS LOW DIMINISHES AND A THIRD DEVELOPS OFF THE
EAST COAST. OVERALL THOUGH, THE COOLER AIRMASS AND LINGERING
GRADIENT FORCES SHOULD SUPPORT 20-30KTS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
LAKE INTO THE WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ013.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/
TUESDAY FOR LSZ241>244.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ245-264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ246>248.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ249-250.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ263.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
UPDATE...LC
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...JTP
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