660
FXUS63 KMQT 190805
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
305 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE RAIN, BUT SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST HALF.
- WIDESPREAD STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL POSE SOME RISK FOR
POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
KEWEENAW AND ALGER COUNTY, WHICH MAY APPROACH 50 MPH. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THERE.
- STRONG WINDS WILL BUILD LARGE WAVES ON THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS
MAY RESULT IN MINOR BEACH EROSION OR LAKESHORE FLOODING ON THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN LAKESHORES OF KEWEENAW COUNTY AND IN DELTA COUNTY,
SOUTH OF ESCANABA AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GARDEN PENINSULA.
- EAST TO SOUTHEAST GALES TO 45 KNOTS, WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS,
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
GOES-16 DAY CLOUD PHASE RGB IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
UP EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW WHICH THE
RAP ANALYSIS HAS AT 990MB OVER KANSAS AT 18Z. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT RACES NORTHEAST, REACHING
THE MINNEAPOLIS VICINITY AT AROUND 983 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING PER
THE 12Z GEFS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES ALONG
THE MI/WI STATE LINE AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS BY
12Z TUESDAY LOOK TO BE A WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF
RAIN, THOUGH THE UPSLOPING AREAS OF MENOMINEE COUNTY AND THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD SEE NEAR 3/4 INCH AS EASTERLY WINDS
RAMP UP AND PROVIDE AN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION.
THE WINDS WILL PRESENT THE MORE HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS, AS
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, PRESSURE FALLS, AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION HELPING MIX INTO A 30-40 KT 925 MB LAYER WILL ALL
CONTRIBUTE TOWARDS GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE HREF SUGGESTS 40-80% CHANCES OF 45 MPH WIND GUST POTENTIAL
OVER THE WEST HALF OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THE HREF TENDS TO
OVERESTIMATE WIND GUST POTENTIAL. STILL, LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HIGHEST GUST POTENTIAL TO BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA,
SO A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY AND
NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY, THOUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
ONTONAGON, GOGEBIC, AND BARAGA COUNTIES MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A
RARE (>20% CHANCE) GUST UP TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 304 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC NW, ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z WED. THE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN MN 00Z THU AND THEN
TO NEAR LAKE ERIE 12Z THU AND TO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRI. LOOKS A BIT
DRIER FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NOW WITH A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE
AREA AND THEN PCPN MOVING BACK IN FROM THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR WILL START TO COME IN LATE TONIGHT, BUT WILL BE
DRY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH UPSLOPE FLOW GOING FROM NW TO NNE AND
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVING IN, SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE U.P. AND COULD SEE UP TO 5 INCHES IN A FEW PLACES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WITH THE HEAVIEST OCCURING LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE OUT TO THE EAST ON THU, IT STARTS TO
WARM UP A BIT AND PCPN WILL SWITCH BACK TO RAIN MOSTLY.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST, A RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES AND A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A TROUGH IN THE ERN U.S. 12Z FRI. PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE 12Z
SAT AND THEN BY 12Z SUN, PATTERN BECOMES FLATTER AND MORE ZONAL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH BROAD TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN U.S.
AND TROUGHING ON THE EAST COAST. A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z MON WITH MORE TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z
TUE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND LAKE EFFECT PCPN WILL OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS, GUSTY WINDS, LLWS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBLITY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07Z AT IWD AND BY 09Z AT SAW AND
CMX, WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z. THERE IS
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT SAW AFTER
15Z; HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT
THIS IN THE TAF. LLWS HAS BEEN ADDED AT ALL SITES AS A LOW LEVEL JET
PASSES OVER THE UP EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
CEILINGS AND VISIBLITY WILL IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 304 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF A MID-LEVEL LOW INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK.
A STRONG GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST GALES
TO 45 KNOTS WITH A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS EXPECTED WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE. THE CORE
OF THE STRONG WINDS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO CANADA BY THIS EVENING
THESE STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH A LONG FETCH, WILL SUPPORT WAVES ABOVE
15 FEET ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE
TODAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND WINDS
DIMINISH QUICKLY DOWN TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATE WHERE THEY STAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE WIND INCREASES BACK TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AND BECOMES
NORTH BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW FORMS NEAR LAKE
HURON AND THEN REMAINS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE INTO SATURDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ013.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ241>244.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ245-264-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ246>248.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ249-250.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...07
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