051
FXUS63 KMQT 191221
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
721 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE RAIN, BUT SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST HALF.
- WIDESPREAD STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL POSE SOME RISK FOR
POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
KEWEENAW AND ALGER COUNTY, WHICH MAY APPROACH 50 MPH. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THERE.
- STRONG WINDS WILL BUILD LARGE WAVES ON THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS
MAY RESULT IN MINOR BEACH EROSION OR LAKESHORE FLOODING ON THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN LAKESHORES OF KEWEENAW COUNTY AND IN DELTA COUNTY,
SOUTH OF ESCANABA AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GARDEN PENINSULA.
- EAST TO SOUTHEAST GALES TO 45 KNOTS, WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS,
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A 984 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN. THIS HAS KEPT THE MQT RADAR ACTIVE
ALL NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. AND, WITH ONSET OF DRY
SLOTTING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TODAY, WIDESPREAD 0.25-0.50 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY, THOUGH,
WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. MOST IMPACTED WILL BE THE KEWEENAW/NORTHERN HOUGHTON
AND I-28 CORRIDOR WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH. UNSECURED OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND AND POWER
OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
WILL ALSO APPROACH CRITERIA LEVELS WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE UP. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL CREATE LARGE WAVES ALSO MAKING THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
LAKESHORES OF KEWEENAW AND DELTA COUNTIES SUSCEPTIBLE TO MINOR
BEACH EROSION AND LAKESHORE FLOODING. THEREFORE, LAKESHORE FLOOD
ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THOSE COUNTIES. AS THE
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD LATER TODAY/THIS
EVENING, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND FINALLY WEAKEN.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 304 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC NW, ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z WED. THE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN MN 00Z THU AND THEN
TO NEAR LAKE ERIE 12Z THU AND TO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRI. LOOKS A BIT
DRIER FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NOW WITH A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE
AREA AND THEN PCPN MOVING BACK IN FROM THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR WILL START TO COME IN LATE TONIGHT, BUT WILL BE
DRY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH UPSLOPE FLOW GOING FROM NW TO NNE AND
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVING IN, SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE U.P. AND COULD SEE UP TO 5 INCHES IN A FEW PLACES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WITH THE HEAVIEST OCCURING LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE OUT TO THE EAST ON THU, IT STARTS TO
WARM UP A BIT AND PCPN WILL SWITCH BACK TO RAIN MOSTLY.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST, A RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES AND A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A TROUGH IN THE ERN U.S. 12Z FRI. PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE 12Z
SAT AND THEN BY 12Z SUN, PATTERN BECOMES FLATTER AND MORE ZONAL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH BROAD TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN U.S.
AND TROUGHING ON THE EAST COAST. A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z MON WITH MORE TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z
TUE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND LAKE EFFECT PCPN WILL OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR/IFR WILL BE
THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR AT TIMES. SAW COULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT, BUT THAT IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE.
MEANWHILE, LLWS WILL BE A THREAT AT ALL TAF SITES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. AND, SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 TO 40
KTS, HIGHEST AT CMX. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 304 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF A MID-LEVEL LOW INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK.
A STRONG GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST GALES
TO 45 KNOTS WITH A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS EXPECTED WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE. THE CORE
OF THE STRONG WINDS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO CANADA BY THIS EVENING
THESE STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH A LONG FETCH, WILL SUPPORT WAVES ABOVE
15 FEET ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE
TODAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND WINDS
DIMINISH QUICKLY DOWN TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATE WHERE THEY STAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE WIND INCREASES BACK TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AND BECOMES
NORTH BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW FORMS NEAR LAKE
HURON AND THEN REMAINS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE INTO SATURDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ013.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ162-263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ241>244.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ245-251-
264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ246>250.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...07
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