740  
FXUS63 KMQT 200837  
AFDMQT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
337 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.  
PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE RAIN, BUT SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE  
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST HALF.  
 
- NORTHERLY GALES 35 TO 40 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GALE  
WARNING ISSUED FOR MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR, BUT FAR WEST.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024  
 
AT THE MID LEVELS, A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE SFC  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY  
DECORATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RADAR MOSAIC IS CENTERED OVER  
NORTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON AT 985 MB PER THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS; AN  
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT IS APPROACHING THE MI/WI STATE LINE. THIS  
SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD, SLIGHTLY RETROGRADING TO  
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA AT 994 MB AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS  
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HELPS THE OCCLUDED  
FRONT PUSH NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS (OBSERVED UP TO 30-50 MPH EARLIER IN THE DAY)  
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUSED PLENTY OF POWER OUTAGES IN THE  
KEWEENAW AS WELL SCATTERED AREAS OF POWER OUTAGE IMPACTS ACROSS THE  
UP. THESE WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED WEAKENING, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO  
THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS  
EVENING, THE LULL IN WINDS WILL MOVE NORTH WITH IT, SHIFTING WINDS  
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT. 11/19 12Z HREF INDICATES A 30-60%  
CHANCE FOR SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AGAIN THIS EVENING AS A 35-40 KT  
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN  
SHORES. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS MIXING DOWN EARLY ON THIS  
EVENING BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN TO 5 TO 15 MPH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING  
CALMER WINDS IN THE EAST. WITH WINDS AND RESULTING WAVES  
DIMINISHING, OPTED TO ALLOW WIND AND LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORIES TO  
FALL OFF AS SCHEDULED.  
 
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A  
DRY SLOW BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER RETURNING LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 0.25 INCHES. OTHERWISE,  
LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S, WARMER IN THE EAST  
WHERE SHOWERS HOLD ON THE LONGEST.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024  
 
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW NEAR GRB 00Z THU  
WHICH MOVES TO NEAR HARRISBURG, PA BY 00Z FRI. THIS LOW THEN ROTATES  
AND SPINS INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SAT. MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH  
TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRI. DEEPER MOISTURE  
AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST 00Z THU  
AND REMAINS INTO THU AND THEN THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WEAKENS BY  
00Z FRI. COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT AND COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF  
SNOW IN A FEW PLACES IN THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P. MODIFICATION OF  
THE AIRMASS WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL SWITCH ANY  
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER TO ALL RAIN ON THU. DRIER AIR COMES IN FROM THE  
EAST WITH A SECONDARY DRY SLOT IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. LAKE  
EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT MOVES BACK IN FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.  
 
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST  
COAST, A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND A TROUGH ON THE EAST  
COAST 12Z SAT. TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND  
NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN U.S. A SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z  
MON WITH MORE TROUGHING ENTERING INTO THE AREA 12Z TUE AND 12Z WED.  
TEMPERATURES STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD  
WITH COOLING STARTING ON TUE INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 113 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024  
 
A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS REMAINS OVER THE UP TONIGHT, WITH MVFR  
RESTRICTIONS PERSISTING INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT IWD AND CMX AND  
LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT SAW. AFTER A  
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT IWD AND CMX WEDNESDAY MORNING, CEILINGS  
LOWER TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS RAIN (EVENTUALLY  
MIXING WITH SNOW) SPREADS IN FROM THE EAST. THIS MAY LEAD TO DROPS  
IN VISIBILITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS, MAINLY AT CMX AND SAW WHERE  
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE LIKELY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS OUT OF  
THE SW TONIGHT TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AT AROUND 5-10KTS FOR  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024  
 
ATTENTION TURNS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE HURON THAT  
WILL LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT WEST AND SOUTH OVER LOWER  
MICHIGAN INTO THURSDAY. NEXT STRONG GALE EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE LATE  
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A GALE WARNING POSTED FOR ALL BUT THE FAR  
WEST. IN THE MEANTIME, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW 20 KNOTS  
TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO NORTH GALES TO 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT  
ACROSS MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE NORTH GALE WILL CONTINUE INTO  
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS  
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE WIND THEN  
STAYS 20 TO 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE FALLING OFF TO BELOW  
20 KNOTS SAT NIGHT.  
 
 
   
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
UPPER MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
LAKE SUPERIOR...  
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ242>245-263-  
264.  
 
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ248>250.  
 
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ265-266.  
 
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ267.  
 
LAKE MICHIGAN...  
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...JABLONSKI  
LONG TERM...07  
AVIATION...LC  
MARINE...07  
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