910
FXUS63 KMQT 201158
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
658 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE RAIN, BUT SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST HALF.
- NORTHERLY GALES 35 TO 40 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GALE
WARNING ISSUED FOR MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR, BUT FAR WEST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
FINALLY A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WIND ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING AS
UPPER MICHIGAN FALLS INTO THE DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. SURFACE/RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY HAS THAT LOW SITUATED OVER
SOUTHEAST MANITOBA WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS ONTARIO
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE RADAR
QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST WED 12Z. HOWEVER, AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MN/WI THIS MORNING, A SECOND SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER LOWER MI, PROVIDING THE FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN BY MID-
MORNING. P-TYPE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES STARTING TO MIX IN ACROSS THE
MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, THOUGH, SHOULD BE NO GREATER THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH WITH NEGLIGIBLE SNOW AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE, HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 30S (INTERIOR WEST) TO LOW/MID 40S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE UP.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW NEAR GRB 00Z THU
WHICH MOVES TO NEAR HARRISBURG, PA BY 00Z FRI. THIS LOW THEN ROTATES
AND SPINS INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SAT. MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH
TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRI. DEEPER MOISTURE
AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST 00Z THU
AND REMAINS INTO THU AND THEN THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WEAKENS BY
00Z FRI. COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT AND COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW IN A FEW PLACES IN THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P. MODIFICATION OF
THE AIRMASS WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL SWITCH ANY
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER TO ALL RAIN ON THU. DRIER AIR COMES IN FROM THE
EAST WITH A SECONDARY DRY SLOT IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT MOVES BACK IN FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST, A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND A TROUGH ON THE EAST
COAST 12Z SAT. TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN U.S. A SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH MORE TROUGHING ENTERING INTO THE AREA 12Z TUE AND 12Z WED.
TEMPERATURES STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH COOLING STARTING ON TUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL TAF SITES FOR NOW, BUT EXPECT A
RETURN TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE EAST.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD UPPER MICHIGAN FROM THE EAST WITH
SOME SNOW EVENTUALLY MIXING IN. MVFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
NIGHT WHEN FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR/LIFR COMMENCES OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME AN IMPACT AGAIN TONIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS AT IWD AND SAW AND UP TO 35 KTS AT
CMX.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
ATTENTION TURNS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE HURON THAT
WILL LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT WEST AND SOUTH OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO THURSDAY. NEXT STRONG GALE EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A GALE WARNING POSTED FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST. IN THE MEANTIME, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW 20 KNOTS
TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO NORTH GALES TO 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE NORTH GALE WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE WIND THEN
STAYS 20 TO 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE FALLING OFF TO BELOW
20 KNOTS SAT NIGHT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ242>245-263-
264.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ248>250.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...07
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