746
FXUS63 KMQT 202108
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
408 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE RAIN, BUT SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST HALF.
- NORTHERLY GALES 35 TO 40 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GALE
WARNING ISSUED FOR MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR, BUT FAR WEST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER MN
AND WI WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND
THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MI, A SFC
LOW DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE WEAKENING SFC LOW PHASES
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW AS IT ROTATES FROM LAKE HURON TO EASTERN
UPPER MI. STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE EAST HAS ALLOWED FOR
SHOWERS TO EXPAND OVER THE EASTERN UP AS VISIBLE ON RADAR IMAGERY
AND AVAILABLE WEBCAMS. REFLECTIVITY RETURNS HAVE PERIODICALLY LIFTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL UPPER MI AND THE KEWEENAW ALREADY
TODAY, BUT AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS HIGHLIGHTED BY DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF UP TO 10-15F HAS REALLY WORKED AGAINST PRECIP
EXPANDING WESTWARD. WHILE SOME ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST HALF AHEAD OF 7 PM EST, BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THAT POINT, A COLDER
AIRMASS WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE WEST, AIDING IN A TRANSITION OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS. MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S ARE
EXPECTED EARLY ON TONIGHT AS WAA STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT
SAID, SOME LIGHT WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY
WEST OF US-41 AND SOUTH OF THE KEWEENAW. HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS UP TO
1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF BARAGA COUNTY. OPTED
TO COVER POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH A SPS
AS A TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY WORK AGAINST ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
OTHERWISE, THE STRENGTHENING LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 20-30 MPH (UP TO 35 MPH IN THE KEWEENAW) BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW NEAR GRB 00Z THU
WHICH MOVES TO NEAR HARRISBURG, PA BY 00Z FRI. THIS LOW THEN ROTATES
AND SPINS INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SAT. MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH
TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRI. DEEPER MOISTURE
AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST 00Z THU
AND REMAINS INTO THU AND THEN THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WEAKENS BY
00Z FRI. COLD AIR COMES IN TONIGHT AND COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW IN A FEW PLACES IN THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P. MODIFICATION OF
THE AIRMASS WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL SWITCH ANY
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER TO ALL RAIN ON THU. DRIER AIR COMES IN FROM THE
EAST WITH A SECONDARY DRY SLOT IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT MOVES BACK IN FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST, A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND A TROUGH ON THE EAST
COAST 12Z SAT. TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN U.S. A SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH MORE TROUGHING ENTERING INTO THE AREA 12Z TUE AND 12Z WED.
TEMPERATURES STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH COOLING STARTING ON TUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD AS RAIN SNOW MIX THIS
EVENING TO SAW FIRST THEN CMX. WHILE IWD MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING, LEFT MENTION OUT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OR EXACT PLACEMENT. THE RAIN SNOW MIX TRANSITIONS OVER TO
SNOW TONIGHT AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL SITES.
OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT, GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KTS
AT IWD AND SAW WITH UP TO ~35 KT AT CMX FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
ATTENTION TURNS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE HURON THAT
WILL LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT WEST AND SOUTH OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO THURSDAY. NEXT STRONG GALE EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A GALE WARNING POSTED FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST. IN THE MEANTIME, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW 20 KNOTS
TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO NORTH GALES TO 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE NORTH GALE WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE WIND THEN
STAYS 20 TO 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE FALLING OFF TO BELOW
20 KNOTS SAT NIGHT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ TO 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/
THURSDAY FOR LSZ162-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EST /5 AM CST/ TO 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/
THURSDAY FOR LSZ241>243-246-247.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ244-245.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ248>250-265-
266.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ264.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
SHORT TERM...JABLONSKI
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JABLONSKI
MARINE...07
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