359
FXUS63 KMQT 210757
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
257 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF US-41 AND SOUTH OF THE KEWEENAW.
- NORTHERLY GALES 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
- WIDESPREAD 25 TO 35 MPH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY. HIGHER WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER MN
AND WI WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND
THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MI, A SFC
LOW DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE WEAKENING SFC LOW PHASES
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW AS IT ROTATES FROM LAKE HURON TO EASTERN
UPPER MI. STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE EAST HAS ALLOWED FOR
SHOWERS TO EXPAND OVER THE EASTERN UP AS VISIBLE ON RADAR IMAGERY
AND AVAILABLE WEBCAMS. REFLECTIVITY RETURNS HAVE PERIODICALLY LIFTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL UPPER MI AND THE KEWEENAW ALREADY
TODAY, BUT AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS HIGHLIGHTED BY DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF UP TO 10-15F HAS REALLY WORKED AGAINST PRECIP
EXPANDING WESTWARD. WHILE SOME ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST HALF AHEAD OF 7 PM EST, BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THAT POINT, A COLDER
AIRMASS WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE WEST, AIDING IN A TRANSITION OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS. MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S ARE
EXPECTED EARLY ON TONIGHT AS WAA STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT
SAID, SOME LIGHT WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY
WEST OF US-41 AND SOUTH OF THE KEWEENAW. HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS UP TO
1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF BARAGA COUNTY. OPTED
TO COVER POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH A SPS
AS A TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY WORK AGAINST ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
OTHERWISE, THE STRENGTHENING LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 20-30 MPH (UP TO 35 MPH IN THE KEWEENAW) BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN PA
00Z FRI WITH RIDGING IN THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO
MANITOBA 00Z SAT AND INTO WESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z SAT. THIS LOW HEADS
SOUTHEAST INTO QUEBEC SAT NIGHT. SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE PCPN CONTINUING
TO BE RAIN, BUT SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WEST. SNOW IS POSSIBLE SAT AND SAT NIGHT IN THE EAST.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THOUGH. DID LOOKS AT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND THEY STAY JUST BELOW BORDERLINE LAKE EFFECT FOR
THIS PERIOD, EVEN LAKE ENHANCEMENT. PCPN WILL MOSTLY COME FROM
SYSTEM SNOW OR WRAPAROUND FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH NEAR
THE AREA.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST, A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. 12Z SUN. TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
12Z MON AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. TROUGHING MOVES INTO
THE ROCKIES 12Z WED AND INTO THE PLAINS 12Z THU. TEMPERATURES COOL
FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUE THROUGH THU. WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WET FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER
AIR MOVING IN AND CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE UP, BRINGING WITH IT A MESSY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW
WILL FALL EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW AND FINALLY ALL RAIN. THE TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WITH HAPPEN AT SAW BY 08Z AND IWD BY 09Z. THE TRANSITION TO RAIN
WILL HAPPEN AT SAW BY 10Z AND AT IWD BY 12Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AT CMX FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY 09Z ACROSS THE AREA AND PERSIST ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT SAW DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING, GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KTS AT IWD AND UP TO ~35 KT AT SAW/CMX.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WILL DESCEND DOWN THE
AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND
BRING MARINE HAZARDS TO LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTH
GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE WIND STARTS TO DECREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT WHEN THEY FALL TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WHERE THEY REMAIN INTO
SATURDAY WHILE BACKING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS REMAIN BELOW
20 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING 15 TO 25 KNOTS
LATER ON MONDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EST /5 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
/2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>243-246-247.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ244-245-
248>250-265-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
SHORT TERM...JABLONSKI
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...07
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