611
FXUS63 KMQT 212023
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
323 PM EST THU NOV 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WET SNOW FALLING OVER PORTIONS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MI
CHANGES TO RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. A RAINY DAY FOLLOWS,
ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL UPPER MI.
- A WINDY DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH (STRONGEST KEWEENAW
AND NEAR THE LAKE BARAGA/MARQUETTE COUNTIES TO WESTERN ALGER
COUNTY). ON LAKE SUPERIOR, NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 40
KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST THU NOV 21 2024
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE SFC LOW HAS
MADE IT JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL LAKE MI. ALOFT, THE MID LEVEL LOW IS
ANALYZED OVER LAKE ERIE AND OH WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE
PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO HIGHLIGHTED SOME WELL DEFINED
GRAVITY WAVES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW CLOUD DECK NEAR THE
MN ARROWHEAD SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS WHERE SOME WEAK SFC TO
850 MB CAA, LOW LEVEL FGEN, AND PRESSURE RISES RESULTED IN NORTHWEST
KATABATIC WINDS. A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS CAME IN WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50 KT RANGE! SAR WIND DATA ALSO
SHOWS THAT THESE WINDS EXTENDED INTO THE NORTHERN OPEN WATERS OF
LSZ162. OUTSIDE THE MARINE IMPACTS, PRESSURE FALLS THIS MORNING AND
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTED IN NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO
35 TO 45 MPH IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE UP WITH 58 MPH RECORDED AT
HOUGHTON COUNTY MEMORIAL AIRPORT. THIS ENDED UP CAUSING SOME POWER
OUTAGES THIS MORNING, BUT WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 15 MPH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UP WITH GUSTS STILL IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE OVER THE
WEST. NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL UP WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WEST AND ISOLATED SHOWER TO DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE EAST. SOME CLEARING IS EVEN OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE OVER THE LAKE MI SHORES OF UPPER MI AND NORTHERN LOWER MI.
THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DESCEND OVER THE REST OF LAKE MI INTO THIS
EVENING, DISSIPATING TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SPINS TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS YIELDS A EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE DOMINATING BAND
OF SHOWERS BEFORE SOME DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRIER AIRMASS INTRUDING ABOVE THE THE 5-7 KFT
LEVEL, DIMINISHING SHOWER COVERAGE AND OVERALL QPF. THAT SAID,
SCATTERED UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTH. AN ADDITIONAL FEW HUNDRETHS TO 0.15 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. UP TO 0.6" OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS FORECASTED OVER PORTIONS
OF BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES AIDED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW; MOST OF
THE QPF IS EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS. OVERALL, WET
SNOW AND RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BROUGHT AROUND 0.5 TO 2
INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIP WHICH SHOULD HELP IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE UP.
OTHERWISE, TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ARE EXPECTED
TO SETTLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN PA
00Z FRI WITH RIDGING IN THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO
MANITOBA 00Z SAT AND INTO WESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z SAT. THIS LOW HEADS
SOUTHEAST INTO QUEBEC SAT NIGHT. SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE PCPN CONTINUING
TO BE RAIN, BUT SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WEST. SNOW IS POSSIBLE SAT AND SAT NIGHT IN THE EAST.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THOUGH. DID LOOKS AT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND THEY STAY JUST BELOW BORDERLINE LAKE EFFECT FOR
THIS PERIOD, EVEN LAKE ENHANCEMENT. PCPN WILL MOSTLY COME FROM
SYSTEM SNOW OR WRAPAROUND FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH NEAR
THE AREA.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST, A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. 12Z SUN. TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
12Z MON AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. TROUGHING MOVES INTO
THE ROCKIES 12Z WED AND INTO THE PLAINS 12Z THU. TEMPERATURES COOL
FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUE THROUGH THU. WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WET FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER
AIR MOVING IN AND CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 PM EST THU NOV 21 2024
WHILE THE SFC LOW OVER LAKE MI CONTINUES SOUTH, WEAKENING INTO THIS
EVENING, UPPER MI CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED FROM THE LARGER
CIRCULATION ALOFT AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A
RESULT, IFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT SAW INTO TONIGHT WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS AT
IWD AND CMX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS ~30%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STREAMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR, BUT BEST CONFIDENCE
IN SHOWERS IS AT SAW. OTHERWISE, NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY BETWEEN 20-25 KT. THAT SAID, CMX COULD STILL SEE
SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BECOMING MAINLY 10-20 KT FOR TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WILL DESCEND DOWN THE
AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND
BRING MARINE HAZARDS TO LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTH
GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE WIND STARTS TO DECREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT WHEN THEY FALL TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WHERE THEY REMAIN INTO
SATURDAY WHILE BACKING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS REMAIN BELOW
20 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING 15 TO 25 KNOTS
LATER ON MONDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JABLONSKI
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JABLONSKI
MARINE...07
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