455
FXUS63 KMQT 161804
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
104 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND SNOW BELTS LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BECOMES MODERATE AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
PASSING DISTURBANCE.
- WESTERLY GALES TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ARE EXPECTED
LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING; SOME GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE (25-50% CHANCE) EAST HALF. WEST WIND GUSTS 40-45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED IN THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS UPPER
MI'S SNOWPACK EARLY THIS MORNING IN A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW, AND
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN PATCHY FOG, VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM WHAT THEY WERE ON SUNDAY. SUSPECT
THAT MIXING FROM THE 10-20 MPH WINDS MAY HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH
THE IMPROVED VISIBILITIES. AS A RESULT, DECIDED TO CANCEL THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES
OF THE CWA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW JUST NORTH OF THE MN
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY
PROPELLING A SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHWEST TO
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY PATCHY
FOG PERSISTING TODAY SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
AND DEW POINTS ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE WEST. WEAK
FORCING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
-6 TO -7C IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT ARE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
FORM OVER THE WEST WIND SNOW BELTS OF THE WESTERN U.P. LATE INTO
TONIGHT AND OVER THE FAR EASTERN SHORELINE LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
MARGINALLY COLD TEMPS, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION, LESS THAN AN INCH.
THE DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED MIXING FROM THE COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WEST WINDS FLIRTING WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
OF 40-45 POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE U.P. WEST WIND GUSTS OF 20-
30 MPH SHOULD BE MORE COMMON TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CONTINUE THEIR
EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY, 850 MB TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY
DECREASE BEHIND THEM. WITH -10C TO -8C 850 MB TEMPS BY TUESDAY
MORNING, PURE LES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPORTED OVER THE W TO WNW
WIND SNOW BELTS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, THOUGH, ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING. NONETHELESS, STRONG WNW WINDS WILL
BE A THREAT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINES WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. FARTHER INLAND, MAX
WIND GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, FOCUS TURNS TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING
EVEN FURTHER INTO THE -20C TO -15C RANGE, THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LES ACROSS THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM,
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW AND WILL
BE THE ONE TO WATCH THROUGH LATE WEEK AS IT QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
LATEST GFS/EPS IS TRENDING THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH THAN ECMWF/EPS,
WHICH WOULD PUT THE TRACK ACROSS WI/SOUTHERN LOWER MI. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE UP WITH BEST CHANCES
COMING FROM LES IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. A MORE NORTHERLY ROUTE,
HOWEVER, COULD MEAN SOME SYSTEM SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FOR THE UP.
DESPITE THE TRACK, LES CHANCES REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM AS COLD 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S (WEST TO EAST) ON TUESDAY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW 30S ACROSS THE EAST. THIS TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNTIL GUIDANCE HINTS AT ANOTHER
WARMUP AROUND DAY 7. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN AN ACCOMPANYING PERIOD OF
FRIGID OVERNIGHT LOWS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOME BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE UP. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ARE AT IWD AND CMX WITH SOME RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING IN INITIALLY AT
IWD. SHOWER COVERAGE DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, SO OPTED TO LEAVE SNOW MENTION OUT AFTER TONIGHT, BUT
CMX AND IWD COULD STILL SEE ON AND OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN AT ALL SITES,
ESPECIALLY AT CMX WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IWD SHOULD OBSERVE GUSTS BETWEEN 20-
30 KTS AND A BIT LOWER AT SAW BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT, STRENGTHENING TO GALES
OF 35 TO 40 KTS THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR HIGH
END GALES IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE EAST PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE. SO, A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GALES BEGIN FALLING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE WEST RETURNING TO 20-30
KTS BY AROUND 9 AM EST AND AROUND 12-1 PM EST IN THE EAST. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS BY TUESDAY NIGHT, VEERING
NORTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME ISOLATED 25-30 KTS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PASSING SYSTEM
RE-INVIGORATES NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20-25 KTS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. WAVES WILL BE HIGHEST LATE IN THE GALE TUESDAY MORNING AT
AROUND 8-12 FT LAKE WIDE WITH HIGHER WAVES UP TO 15 FT IN THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-
240>242-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ243-244-264.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ245>250-265-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...JABLONSKI
MARINE...JABLONSKI
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