969
FXUS63 KMQT 162224
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
524 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WESTERLY GALES TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ARE
EXPECTED LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING; SOME GUSTS UP TO 45
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE (25-40% CHANCE) EAST HALF. WEST WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT.
- LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. SNOWFALL
COULD BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY.
- EYES ARE ON A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING SOME
FLUFFY SNOWFALL OVER THE U.P. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, WE MAY MISS OUT ON THE SYSTEM SNOWFALL ENTIRELY
SHOULD IT GO TOO FAR SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS ON THIS GLOOMY AND MILD DAY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO PROVINCE LINE, EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST. THE SFC LOW IS STACKED FAIRLY WELL BELOW IT,
OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AT ~998MB. AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
MOVED OVER THE WESTERN UP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE UP THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SOUTHERLY FLOW
KEEPS THE HUMID WARM AIR IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S OVER THE EAST
WHERE SOME FOG REMAINS, SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG (BELOW 1 MILE VIS)
SUPPORTED BY UPSLOPE FLOW STILL IS HOLDING ON IN SCHOOLCRAFT AND
LUCE COUNTIES. AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH, WINDS SHIFT MORE
WESTERLY AND UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHES, SO FOG SHOULD DIMINISH INTO
THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS OVER THE UP
AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS RESULTS IN AN UPTICK IN POPS
OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER THE NORTHEAST A BIT LATER
TONIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -6C TO -7C BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
WITH LAKE SUPERIOR SFC TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 4.8C, THIS WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. ALSO, THE DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED
MIXING FROM CAA WILL LEAD TO BLUSTERY WEST WINDS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY IN THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30-
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED; GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 20-30 MPH ELSEWHERE.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH IN THE KEWEENAW AND 35-40 MPH ALONG THE SUPERIOR
LAKESHORES, HREF AND ECMWF GUST PROBABILITIES HAVE EITHER REMAINED
THE SAME OR DIMINISHED 10-20% OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. OPTED TO NOT
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. LOWS SETTLE INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES
TO DEPART AND A SFC RIDGE MOVES TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY,
RESULTING IN A GRADUALLY RELAX IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN WILL ALSO WORK AGAINST THE ALREADY MARGINAL LAKE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL, DIMINISHING COVERAGE AND LIKELY PROVIDING A DRY PERIOD FOR
THE WEST. SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LONGER FETCH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR COULD BRING BETTER, ALBEIT STILL MARGINAL, SNOW TO AREAS
ALONG THE LAKESHORES IN THE EAST. FOR THE MOST PART, SNOW TOTALS
THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY HOLD BELOW 1". OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL
BE COLDER ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS
REINFORCING COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE U.P.
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITH WINDS PICKING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WE
COULD SEE A RETURN OF SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, MAINLY IN THE EAST NEAR MUNISING.
OVERALL, WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL AT LEAST SEE A DUSTING OR SOME
SNOWFLAKES, THE NORTHWEST SNOW BELTS COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW
FLUFFY SNOW, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE EAST NEAR
MUNISING.
THE MAIN EVENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY. CURRENTLY, GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW'S TRACK GOING AS FAR NORTH
AS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MIDDLE OF ILLINOIS.
SHOULD THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS PLAY OUT, WE SHOULDN'T SEE MUCH
OF ANYTHING SAVE FOR MAYBE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST SNOW BELTS, MAINLY AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY AS WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, SHOULD THE MORE
NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS BE CORRECT, WE COULD SEE SOME SYSTEM SNOWFALL
FROM THE CLIPPER AS WELL AS UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND IT TOO; THE LARGEST SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL
U.P. IN THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE UPSLOPE AND POSSIBLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE LOW, AND THEN
UPSLOPE FLOW/LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR NOW IN THE FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES, AS THE MORE NORTH SOLUTIONS COULD HAVE US ISSUING
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
GUIDANCE TRENDING THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH WITH TIME, I'M RATHER
UNSURE IF THIS WILL OCCUR OR NOT.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE IT FRIDAY AS WINDS VEER MORE TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST WITH TIME. THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT THEN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE ENDING LATE THIS WEEKEND AS A
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODEL SPREAD BECOMES HIGH. HOWEVER, CHANCES DO SEEM
BE TO INCREASING FOR POSSIBLE SNOWFALL EVENT COME THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. REGARDLESS, WITH TEMPERATURES
LOOKING TO BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THE REST OF THIS WEEK
TO CHRISTMAS, CHANCES ARE HIGH (I'M THINKING AROUND 70%+) THAT MOST,
IF NOT ALL, OF THE U.P. WILL SEE A 'WHITE CHRISTMAS' THIS YEAR GIVEN
THE POSSIBLE CLIPPER SNOWFALL, LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL, POSSIBLE
SNOWFALL EVENT NEAR CHRISTMAS DAY, AND TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
SITES. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER
THE UP. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE AT IWD AND CMX WITH SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN INITIALLY AT IWD. SHOWER COVERAGE DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE, GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN AT ALL SITES,
ESPECIALLY AT CMX WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IWD SHOULD OBSERVE GUSTS BETWEEN 20-
30 KTS AND A BIT LOWER AT SAW BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
WINDS ARE INCREASING TO WESTERLY GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE LAKE.
THE WINDS WEAKEN TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WEAKENS,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING 20 KNOTS OR LESS BY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. HOWEVER, EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS TO ONLY LAST FOR A
SHORT WHILE, AS NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS RETURNS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AS AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THIS, WINDS DO LOOK TO
WEAKEN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND A CLIPPER DIVES TOWARDS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOULD THIS MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION
PROVE TRUE, WE MAY SEE SOME HIGHER WINDS OF 20+ KNOTS BACK ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT; IF NOT, THEN WE MAY HAVE
THE LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS REMAIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
EVEN IF THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION FOR THE CLIPPER IS TRUE, WINDS
LOOK TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE CLIPPER. THE LIGHT WINDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE UNTIL POSSIBLY NEXT WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-
240>242-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ243-244-264.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ245>250-265-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JABLONSKI
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TAP
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