560
FXUS63 KMQT 170859
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
359 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WESTERLY GALES TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ARE
EXPECTED INTO THIS MORNING. WEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED IN THE KEWEENAW EARLY THIS MORNING.
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
SNOW BELTS TODAY.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW PICKS UP AND COULD BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
- EYES ARE ON A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING SOME
FLUFFY SNOWFALL OVER THE U.P. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, WE MAY MISS OUT ON THE SYSTEM SNOWFALL ENTIRELY
SHOULD IT GO TOO FAR SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTHWEST OF A SFC LOW NOW OVER JAMES BAY
ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
HAS LED TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND
THE FAR EASTERN SHORELINE OF THE U.P. WHERE GUSTS HAVE REACHED 40
MPH. THE COLD ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -8C TO -
9C ARE ALSO JUST COLD ENOUGH TO ALSO GENERATE SOME LIGHT LES
ACROSS THE WEST TO NORTHWEST SNOW BELTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE DAY, THE LIGHT LES WILL CONTINUE BUT ONLY A DUSTING
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WEST-NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RAMP UP LATER TONIGHT AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA PROVIDES DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT FOR ENHANCEMENT. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK
LIFT, DEEPER MOISTURE AND CAA WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -12C TO -
13C BY 12Z WED SHOULD LEAD TO 1-2 INCHES OF LES ACCUMULATION TONIGHT
OVER THE WNW SNOW BELTS, GREATEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
COPPER COUNTRY, PARTICULARLY FROM IRONWOOD NORTHEAST TO PAINESDALE.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, COOLEST
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS
REINFORCING COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE U.P.
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITH WINDS PICKING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WE
COULD SEE A RETURN OF SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, MAINLY IN THE EAST NEAR MUNISING.
OVERALL, WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL AT LEAST SEE A DUSTING OR SOME
SNOWFLAKES, THE NORTHWEST SNOW BELTS COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW
FLUFFY SNOW, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE EAST NEAR
MUNISING.
THE MAIN EVENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY. CURRENTLY, GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW'S TRACK GOING AS FAR NORTH
AS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MIDDLE OF ILLINOIS.
SHOULD THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS PLAY OUT, WE SHOULDN'T SEE MUCH
OF ANYTHING SAVE FOR MAYBE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST SNOW BELTS, MAINLY AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY AS WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, SHOULD THE MORE
NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS BE CORRECT, WE COULD SEE SOME SYSTEM SNOWFALL
FROM THE CLIPPER AS WELL AS UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND IT TOO; THE LARGEST SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL
U.P. IN THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE UPSLOPE AND POSSIBLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE LOW, AND THEN
UPSLOPE FLOW/LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR NOW IN THE FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES, AS THE MORE NORTH SOLUTIONS COULD HAVE US ISSUING
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
GUIDANCE TRENDING THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH WITH TIME, I'M RATHER
UNSURE IF THIS WILL OCCUR OR NOT.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE IT FRIDAY AS WINDS VEER MORE TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST WITH TIME. THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT THEN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE ENDING LATE THIS WEEKEND AS A
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODEL SPREAD BECOMES HIGH. HOWEVER, CHANCES DO SEEM
BE TO INCREASING FOR POSSIBLE SNOWFALL EVENT COME THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. REGARDLESS, WITH TEMPERATURES
LOOKING TO BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THE REST OF THIS WEEK
TO CHRISTMAS, CHANCES ARE HIGH (I'M THINKING AROUND 70%+) THAT MOST,
IF NOT ALL, OF THE U.P. WILL SEE A 'WHITE CHRISTMAS' THIS YEAR GIVEN
THE POSSIBLE CLIPPER SNOWFALL, LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL, POSSIBLE
SNOWFALL EVENT NEAR CHRISTMAS DAY, AND TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE UP.
OTHERWISE, GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN AT ALL SITES,
ESPECIALLY AT CMX WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IWD SHOULD OBSERVE GUSTS BETWEEN 20-
30 KTS AND A BIT LOWER AT SAW BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
WINDS ARE INCREASING TO WESTERLY GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE LAKE.
THE WINDS WEAKEN TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WEAKENS,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING 20 KNOTS OR LESS BY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. HOWEVER, EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS TO ONLY LAST FOR A
SHORT WHILE, AS NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS RETURNS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AS AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THIS, WINDS DO LOOK TO
WEAKEN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND A CLIPPER DIVES TOWARDS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOULD THIS MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION
PROVE TRUE, WE MAY SEE SOME HIGHER WINDS OF 20+ KNOTS BACK ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT; IF NOT, THEN WE MAY HAVE
THE LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS REMAIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
EVEN IF THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION FOR THE CLIPPER IS TRUE, WINDS
LOOK TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE CLIPPER. THE LIGHT WINDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE UNTIL POSSIBLY NEXT WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ162-240>244-251-263-264-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ245>250-265-
266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TAP
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