487
FXUS63 KMQT 171957
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
257 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW PICKS UP AND COULD BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST-NORTHWEST, THEN
NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND EASTERN U.P. FOR THIS.
- EYES ARE ON A FAST-HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING
SOME FLUFFY LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVER THE U.P. LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSES SHOW MIDLEVEL
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND A CLIPPER OVER
MANITOBA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR
EAST, 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING TO AROUND -10C ALREADY. THIS
HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO KICK UP SOME WNW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS -
PROMINENT ON RADAR ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP AND
SOMEWHAT OBSCURED ON SATELLITE AS HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PLAINS SYSTEM STREAMS INTO THE AREA. STILL, AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY
LES CAN BE EXPECTED TO THE WEST, WITH OCCASIONAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND GLIMPSES OF SNOW SHOWERS ON WEBCAMS. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY BELOW AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE BY 00Z IN THE
EASTERN UP, WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO THE WEST.
OTHERWISE, WNW WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE KEWEENAW, GUSTING
TO 20-30MPH. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL BACK THE REST OF THE DAY,
HOWEVER, WHILE TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE 20S (WEST) TO LOWER 30S)
EAST) UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.
WEST-NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RAMP UP LATER TONIGHT AS THE
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA PROVIDES DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT FOR ENHANCEMENT. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK
LIFT, DEEPER MOISTURE AND CAA WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -12C TO -
13C BY 12Z WED SHOULD LEAD TO 1-3 INCHES OF LES ACCUMULATION TONIGHT
OVER THE WNW SNOW BELTS, GREATEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
COPPER COUNTRY, PARTICULARLY FROM IRONWOOD NORTHEAST TO PAINESDALE.
LES CONTINUES THE REST OF WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES AROUND/IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER
HOUR. WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND EASTERN UP.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, COOLEST
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE LIGHT TO MODERATE AT TIMES LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH MARGINAL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BASIN AS A SHORTWAVE LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER IT.
WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING, EXPECT THE STRONGEST SNOWFALL RATES TO BE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY, WITH THE TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM OUR WEST. WITH DELTA-TS INCREASING
TO AROUND 20 C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL, WITH PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE NIPIGON
ALSO LENDING A HAND IN ADDING MOISTURE FLUX TO THE EASTERN LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TOO. OVERALL, EXPECT SLICK ROADS AND QUICKLY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT TIMES; SLOW DOWN AND BE SURE TO TAKE YOUR
TIME. BY THE TIME THE LAKE EFFECT DIES OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
EXPECT TO SEE AROUND 3 TO 7 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS, WITH SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPING FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG THE LAKESHORES AS
WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 35 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE
WESTERN NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS, THE AREA CAN EXPECT TO SEE AROUND
3 TO 6 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 8
INCHES NEAR THE PORKIES. THEREFORE, GIVEN THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 1 AM EST TONIGHT TO 7
PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GOGEBIC, ONTONAGON, AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTIES, AND FROM 1 AM EST TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ALGER,
NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTIES.
OUR ATTENTION THEN GOES TO A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT DROPS
TOWARDS THE CHICAGO AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE WE
LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUICK REPRIEVE FROM SNOWFALL THURSDAY MORNING, THE
APPROACHING CLIPPER LOOKS TO HELP DEVELOP INVERTED SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER BOTH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WHILE TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL LIKELY KEEP SYSTEM SNOWFALL OUT OF OUR
AREA TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH, WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT DEVELOPING OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR, WE COULD SEE SOME MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL OFF OF GREEN BAY IN
MENOMINEE AND SOUTHWESTERN DELTA COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING, AND LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL OVER THE EAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND SNOW BELTS OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENT, WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MENOMINEE AND POSSIBLY MARQUETTE
COUNTIES IN THE NEAR FUTURE FOR THIS EVENT AS SLICK ROADS AND
QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT TIMES COULD BE SEEN. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY, EXPECT THE
INCOMING SUBSIDENCE TO GREATLY DIMINISH THE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER, REMNANT TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES BASIN MAY BE
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTH WIND SNOW BELTS INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
DESPITE THE RIDGING PUSHING INTO THE AREA (DELTA-TS INCREASING TO
THE LOWER TO MID 20S C). THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO EVENTUALLY
END THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FINALLY FIGHTS ITS WAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BASIN.
EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND FOR CHRISTMAS WEEK AS WARM AIR FROM
MORE TROPICAL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DOWNSLOPES INTO THE CANADIAN AND U.S. PLAINS. THAT BEING SAID, IT
DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL HOLD ON TO COOLER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
LONGER EARLY NEXT WEEK, AT LEAST ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY GIVE US ANOTHER
SNOWFALL EVENT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER DIPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEFORE BRINGING WARM FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE U.P. AROUND NEXT MONDAY.
WHILE THERE IS SURPRISINGLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
CONVERGENCE ON THIS CLIPPER LOW'S TRACK EARLY NEXT WEEK, UNCERTAINTY
ON THE SNOW CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH AS THE
FORECAST COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THAT FAR OUT (SYSTEM ENERGY HAS
NOT BEEN PICKED UP BY RADIOSONDES OVER THE CONUS YET). THAT BEING
SAID, IT DOES SEEM TO IMPROVE CONFIDENCE A LITTLE FOR A 'WHITE
CHRISTMAS' OVER THE U.P., BEFORE WE LIKELY SEE MORE SNOW MELT
CHRISTMAS DAY AND BEYOND AS SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE UP, THEN IFR SETTLES IN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT IWD AND CMX IN LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, WEST WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
THIS AFTERNOON WEAKEN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS THIS EVENING AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BUILDS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BASIN WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST, EXPECT
WINDS TO BUILD BACK TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE WEST HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON; SOME FREEZING SPRAY
COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR DROPS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THE FREEZING SPRAY ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WEAKEN
TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS A CLIPPER DROPS DOWN TOWARDS THE
CHICAGO AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, SECONDARY INVERTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE
NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN BY FRIDAY. THE WEAK
WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
FIGHTS ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES BASIN.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-003-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...TAP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page