495
FXUS63 KMQT 182115
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
BEFORE IT DOES THOUGH, ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACROSS THE UP THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN MENOMINEE COUNTY WHERE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE UPWARDS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ON MONDAY WITH LIKELY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD TO THE
GULF COAST HAS SUPPORTED A COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -16 AND -11C WHILE LAKE
SUPERIOR IS RUNNING BETWEEN +5 AND 7C, PER GLERL. THIS DIFFERENCE
HAS BEEN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AND KMQT RADAR HAS BEEN ABLE TO OBSERVE THESE SHOWERS
PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. WHERE
RADAR COVERAGE IS LACKING, WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THE
SHOWER COVERAGE IS WIDESPREAD DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLING SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF WHILE THE EAST HAS REMAINED STABLE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA, WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO THIS EVENING,
THEN CONTINUE PRESSING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHILE A CLIPPER EXITS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT TAPERING OFF
THANKS TO INCREASING DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE WEST HALF SHOULD SEE THIS CHANGE SOON AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE
EAST WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO SEE THESE EFFECTS AND CAN EXPECT
CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE WEST. IN THE EAST,
THE LONGER DURATION OF THE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN
THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS. WITH THIS IN MIND, OPTED TO
CANCEL THE INHERITED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN THE WEST AND
MAINTAIN THE ONES IN THE EAST, FOR THE TIME BEING. THESE ARE
CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT 6Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST
HALF. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS TO NEAR
+10F.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTING OFF
WITH A CLIPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
NEARS UPPER MICHIGAN TOMORROW MORNING, WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
FORCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE UP. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
HI-RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUING A MORE NORTHERN TRACK
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN, WHILE GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT ON A SOUTHERN TRACK ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER, OR
FURTHER SOUTH. THE IMPLICATIONS COULD MEAN AN INCREASE OR
DECREASE IN SYSTEM SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH FORCING BEING DISPLACED
CLOSER OR FURTHER AWAY FROM HOME. REGARDLESS, MENOMINEE COUNTY
WILL LIKELY BE THE WINNER OF WHO SEES THE MOST SNOW SINCE BOTH
TRACKS ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT VIA LAKE MICHIGAN.
NORTH LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING IN THE 5-10C
RANGE, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LAKE INDUCED DELTA-TS NEAR
~12-14C LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME COULD REACH NEAR 0.25-0.5"/HOUR. AS A RESULT, HAVE
OPTED TO INCLUDE MENOMINEE COUNTY IN A WINTER STORM WARNING
WHERE 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 6-8 ARE POSSIBLE WHERE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. NEARBY LAKE MICHIGAN ADJACENT COUNTIES DELTA
AND SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COULD SEE A SLIGHT BOOST IN SNOWFALL
AS WELL, THOUGH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH IN
MENOMINEE COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY, HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A SW/NE
LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT BAND TRANSLATING FROM NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR DROPPING INTO THE KEWEENAW AND WEST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD PROVIDE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN
SUFFICIENT LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE. THIS BAND
WOBBLES INTO THE CENTRAL UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER,
SHOULD SEE A WEAKENING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL WORK TO LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE
FAIRLY QUIET WITH COLD NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND FOR CHRISTMAS WEEK AS WARM AIR FROM
MORE TROPICAL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DOWNSLOPES INTO THE CANADIAN AND U.S. PLAINS. THAT BEING SAID, IT
DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL HOLD ON TO COOLER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
LONGER EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION
SNOWFALL EVENT TO POTENTIALLY OCCUR ON MONDAY AS A WAVE MOVING OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS SHOWING REMARKABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FIVE DAYS OUT, AND IF MODEL
CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE U.P. ON MONDAY, INCREASING CHANCES FOR
A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
AFTER MONDAY'S SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST, MODELS INDICATE DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA AND HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLY REACH AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING BOTH DAYS. CPC'S EXTENDED OUTLOOK PAINTS A BLEAK
PICTURE FOR WINTER LOVERS IN THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH VERY HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FINISH OUT THE
REST OF 2024.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE IN THIS
PERIOD, BRINGING WITH IT TAPERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX/KIWD/KSAW, AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AT KSAW AND OVERNIGHT AT KIWD. THURSDAY, A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SNOW
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY AND A TREND TOWARD MVFR CEILINGS AND
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN LAKE
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
A CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO FRIDAY.
WITH ITS PASSAGE, SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP TO NEAR 20 KNOTS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING, THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WHERE GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. AS OF RIGHT NOW, NOT EXPECTING ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS,
HOWEVER AN ISOLATED GUST TO 35 KNOTS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
FRIDAY MORNING (<20% CHANCE). WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 3-6 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF, WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES EAST OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS
FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES PULLING
FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS, WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING, GUSTING UPWARDS OF 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL
LAKE. NOT EXPECTING ANY GALES WITH THIS SLIGHT WIND SHIFT BUT A
STRAY 35 KNOT GUST IS POSSIBLE (<20% CHANCE) NORTH OF PICTURED ROCKS
NAT'L LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN CALM THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST COULD BRING SOUTHERLY GALES EARLY NEXT
WEEK, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE REMAINS LOW (<30%).
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY TO
10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ002-009>011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
085.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
MIZ012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR MIZ013-014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...BW
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