669  
FXUS63 KMQT 190510  
AFDMQT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
1210 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. BEFORE IT DOES  
THOUGH, ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE  
NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS OF THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.  
 
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW  
ACROSS THE UP THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHEST  
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN MENOMINEE COUNTY WHERE LAKE  
ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE UPWARDS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES.  
 
- ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW  
ON MONDAY WITH LIKELY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE  
SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024  
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE  
OVER EASTERN MT. AS THIS WAVE HEADS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
ON THU, IT WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO UPPER MI. TRENDS FROM 18Z AND 00Z  
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE NOTABLY SLOWER IN BRINGING THE SNOW INTO THE  
AREA. FCST UPDATES THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN TO REFINE THE ONSET TIMING  
OF THE SNOW, AND THIS RESULTS IN HEADLINE START TIMES BEING PUSHED  
BACK 3-6HRS. MENOMINEE COUNTY STILL HAS THE BEST SHOT AT REACHING 6  
INCHES OR SO WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKE MI. LOOKS LIKE THERE  
MAY BE A PERIOD OF DECENT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO  
BARAGA/MARQUETTE/WESTERN ALGER COUNTIES LATER THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING  
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARP SFC TROF PASSAGE. AT THE MOMENT, MODELS  
INDICATE TIMING OF THIS HEAVIER SNOW WILL PROBABLY COINCIDE WITH THE  
FRI MORNING COMMUTE IN THE MARQUETTE AREA. WILL BE SOMETHING FOR  
FUTURE SHIFTS TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024  
 
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD TO THE  
GULF COAST HAS SUPPORTED A COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. SPC  
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -16 AND -11C WHILE LAKE  
SUPERIOR IS RUNNING BETWEEN +5 AND 7C, PER GLERL. THIS DIFFERENCE  
HAS BEEN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER  
DEVELOPMENT AND KMQT RADAR HAS BEEN ABLE TO OBSERVE THESE SHOWERS  
PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. WHERE  
RADAR COVERAGE IS LACKING, WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THE  
SHOWER COVERAGE IS WIDESPREAD DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO  
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLING SLIGHTLY THROUGH  
THE DAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF WHILE THE EAST HAS REMAINED STABLE IN  
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.  
 
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND  
NORTHERN MINNESOTA, WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO THIS EVENING,  
THEN CONTINUE PRESSING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHILE A CLIPPER EXITS THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT TAPERING OFF  
THANKS TO INCREASING DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING  
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE WEST HALF SHOULD SEE THIS CHANGE SOON AND  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE  
EAST WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO SEE THESE EFFECTS AND CAN EXPECT  
CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW CAN BE  
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE WEST. IN THE EAST,  
THE LONGER DURATION OF THE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN  
THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS. WITH THIS IN MIND, OPTED TO  
CANCEL THE INHERITED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN THE WEST AND  
MAINTAIN THE ONES IN THE EAST, FOR THE TIME BEING. THESE ARE  
CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT 6Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP  
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST  
HALF. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS TO NEAR  
+10F.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024  
 
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTING OFF  
WITH A CLIPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES  
EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE  
NEARS UPPER MICHIGAN TOMORROW MORNING, WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL  
FORCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE UP. THERE IS STILL SOME  
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH THE DAY, WITH  
HI-RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUING A MORE NORTHERN TRACK  
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN, WHILE GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN  
CONSISTENT ON A SOUTHERN TRACK ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER, OR  
FURTHER SOUTH. THE IMPLICATIONS COULD MEAN AN INCREASE OR  
DECREASE IN SYSTEM SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH FORCING BEING DISPLACED  
CLOSER OR FURTHER AWAY FROM HOME. REGARDLESS, MENOMINEE COUNTY  
WILL LIKELY BE THE WINNER OF WHO SEES THE MOST SNOW SINCE BOTH  
TRACKS ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT VIA LAKE MICHIGAN.  
NORTH LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING IN THE 5-10C  
RANGE, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LAKE INDUCED DELTA-TS NEAR  
~12-14C LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS  
TIMEFRAME COULD REACH NEAR 0.25-0.5"/HOUR. AS A RESULT, HAVE  
OPTED TO INCLUDE MENOMINEE COUNTY IN A WINTER STORM WARNING  
WHERE 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND LOCALLY  
HIGHER AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 6-8 ARE POSSIBLE WHERE LAKE  
ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. NEARBY LAKE MICHIGAN ADJACENT COUNTIES DELTA  
AND SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COULD SEE A SLIGHT BOOST IN SNOWFALL  
AS WELL, THOUGH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH IN  
MENOMINEE COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  
 
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER  
VALLEY, HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A SW/NE  
LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT BAND TRANSLATING FROM NORTHERN LAKE  
SUPERIOR DROPPING INTO THE KEWEENAW AND WEST EARLY FRIDAY  
MORNING. THIS COULD PROVIDE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN  
SUFFICIENT LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE. THIS BAND  
WOBBLES INTO THE CENTRAL UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER,  
SHOULD SEE A WEAKENING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL WORK TO LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS FROM  
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE  
FAIRLY QUIET WITH COLD NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING ENOUGH  
SUPPORT FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.  
 
EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND FOR CHRISTMAS WEEK AS WARM AIR FROM  
MORE TROPICAL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND  
DOWNSLOPES INTO THE CANADIAN AND U.S. PLAINS. THAT BEING SAID, IT  
DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL HOLD ON TO COOLER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE  
LONGER EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION  
SNOWFALL EVENT TO POTENTIALLY OCCUR ON MONDAY AS A WAVE MOVING OVER  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS SHOWING REMARKABLY GOOD  
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FIVE DAYS OUT, AND IF MODEL  
CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS  
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD  
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE U.P. ON MONDAY, INCREASING CHANCES FOR  
A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  
 
AFTER MONDAY'S SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST, MODELS INDICATE DRIER  
AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS WEAK  
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA AND HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLY REACH AT OR  
ABOVE FREEZING BOTH DAYS. CPC'S EXTENDED OUTLOOK PAINTS A BLEAK  
PICTURE FOR WINTER LOVERS IN THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH VERY HIGH  
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FINISH OUT THE  
REST OF 2024.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024  
 
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THRU EARLY  
THIS MORNING, BRINGING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT -SHSN/FLURRIES. AN  
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING -SN INTO UPPER MI THIS AFTN  
AND TONIGHT. AT IWD, MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT TO VFR IN THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF HRS AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN  
RETURN TO IWD EARLY THIS AFTN AS -SN DEVELOPS. VIS SHOULD DROP TO  
IFR FOR SEVERAL HRS BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO MVFR EARLY THIS  
EVENING. AT CMX, A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.  
OTHERWISE, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR IN THE MID MORNING  
HRS AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO CMX IN  
THE MID TO LATE AFTN AS -SN DEVELOPS. FURTHER VIS REDUCTION TO IFR  
SHOULD OCCUR LATE EVENING. AT SAW, SOME FLURRIES WILL LINGER FOR THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. OTHERWISE, MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT TO VFR  
EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN EARLY THIS AFTN WITH -SN  
DEVELOPING SOON AFTERWARDS. VIS AT SAW WILL FALL TO IFR IN -SN THIS  
EVENING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024  
 
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN LAKE  
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  
A CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO FRIDAY.  
WITH ITS PASSAGE, SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP TO NEAR 20 KNOTS LATE  
THURSDAY EVENING, THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING  
WHERE GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN  
LAKE SUPERIOR. AS OF RIGHT NOW, NOT EXPECTING ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS,  
HOWEVER AN ISOLATED GUST TO 35 KNOTS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT  
FRIDAY MORNING (<20% CHANCE). WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 3-6 FEET IN  
THE WEST HALF, WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES EAST OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS  
FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES PULLING  
FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE HIGH  
PLAINS, WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY  
EVENING, GUSTING UPWARDS OF 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL  
LAKE. NOT EXPECTING ANY GALES WITH THIS SLIGHT WIND SHIFT BUT A  
STRAY 35 KNOT GUST IS POSSIBLE (<20% CHANCE) NORTH OF PICTURED ROCKS  
NAT'L LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN CALM THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING  
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST COULD BRING SOUTHERLY GALES EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE REMAINS LOW (<30%).  
 

 
   
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UPPER MICHIGAN...  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST  
FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-003.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS  
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ002-009.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR  
MIZ006-007-085.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 3 AM CST FRIDAY  
FOR MIZ010-011.  
 
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR  
MIZ012.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST  
FRIDAY FOR MIZ013-014.  
 
LAKE SUPERIOR...  
NONE.  
LAKE MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...ROLFSON  
SHORT TERM...JTP  
LONG TERM...BW  
AVIATION...ROLFSON  
MARINE...BW  
 
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