573
FXUS63 KMQT 190857
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACROSS THE UP THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN MENOMINEE COUNTY WHERE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE UPWARDS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ON MONDAY WITH LIKELY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
OVER EASTERN MT. AS THIS WAVE HEADS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON THU, IT WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO UPPER MI. TRENDS FROM 18Z AND 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE NOTABLY SLOWER IN BRINGING THE SNOW INTO THE
AREA. FCST UPDATES THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN TO REFINE THE ONSET TIMING
OF THE SNOW, AND THIS RESULTS IN HEADLINE START TIMES BEING PUSHED
BACK 3-6HRS. MENOMINEE COUNTY STILL HAS THE BEST SHOT AT REACHING 6
INCHES OR SO WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKE MI. LOOKS LIKE THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD OF DECENT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
BARAGA/MARQUETTE/WESTERN ALGER COUNTIES LATER THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARP SFC TROF PASSAGE. AT THE MOMENT, MODELS
INDICATE TIMING OF THIS HEAVIER SNOW WILL PROBABLY COINCIDE WITH THE
FRI MORNING COMMUTE IN THE MARQUETTE AREA. WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
FUTURE SHIFTS TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
NWERLY WIND LES IS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN UP AS EVIDENT ON KMQT
AND CASMR RADAR REFLECTIVITY. REFLECTIVITY VALUES ARE INDICATING
OCCASIONAL SPIKES UP TO 1"/HR SNOWFALL RATES BUT ONLY FOR A FEW
MINUTES AT A TIME. HREF PROBABILITIES OF 0.1" ACCUMULATED QPF BY
NOON EST ARE AROUND 40-60% RIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR DEERTON AND
EAST. WITH FLUFFY SLRS OF AT LEAST 17:1 OBSERVED WITH THESE BANDS,
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
MORNING FOR THE EASTERN THIRD NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. INLAND PENETRATION
AND INTENSITY OF LES BANDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS
WIND SPEEDS DECREASE AND SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 1030MB OVER THE
NORTHERN SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS MORNING. MORNING LOWS
HAVE BEEN A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE LOWER LEVEL LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS
DISSIPATING IN THE WEST HAVE QUICKLY BEEN REPLACED BY A STREAM OF
HIGHER CLOUDS, PREVENTING A COMPLETE CLEARING FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT EVEN STILL, LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST HALF ARE STILL EXPECTED, THOUGH
WIND CHILLS ARE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER AS WINDS ARE
CALMING DOWN, EVEN TO 00000KT AT THE 08Z OB AT KIWD.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CLIPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ND AT
1006MB PER RAP ANALYSIS. ENSEMBLES HAVE FINALLY COALESCED AROUND THE
CHICAGO TRACK, WITH A TIGHT GROUPING OF LOW CENTERS IN THE GEFS AT
AROUND 1015MB BY 06Z FRIDAY. MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
HAVE SERVED TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION, WITH THE
GENERAL ONSET OF SNOWFALL OVER IRONWOOD NOW EXPECTED AROUND 15Z
TODAY, MENOMINEE AROUND 18Z TODAY, AND MUCH OF THE REST OF THE UP BY
21Z. EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE LAKE-
ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY IN PARTICULAR WITH THE
HREF 25TH PERCENTILE PROVIDING A QPF FLOOR OF AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH WITH 75TH PERCENTILE QPF OF AROUND A HALF INCH PROVIDING A
REASONABLE HIGHER-END SOLUTION. WITH SLRS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15 AND 20
TO 1, 8+ INCHES OF SNOW FOR INLAND MENOMINEE COUNTY IS WELL WITHIN
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY (20-40%). ELSEWHERE, MORE WIDESPREAD
PROBABILITIES OF 4+ INCHES OF SNOW ARE IN THE 20-60% RANGE FOR THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF THE UP. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN ON-
TRACK, SO NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE TIMING OR LEVEL OF THE HEADLINE
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTING OFF
WITH A CLIPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
NEARS UPPER MICHIGAN TOMORROW MORNING, WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
FORCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE UP. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
HI-RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUING A MORE NORTHERN TRACK
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN, WHILE GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT ON A SOUTHERN TRACK ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER, OR
FURTHER SOUTH. THE IMPLICATIONS COULD MEAN AN INCREASE OR
DECREASE IN SYSTEM SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH FORCING BEING DISPLACED
CLOSER OR FURTHER AWAY FROM HOME. REGARDLESS, MENOMINEE COUNTY
WILL LIKELY BE THE WINNER OF WHO SEES THE MOST SNOW SINCE BOTH
TRACKS ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT VIA LAKE MICHIGAN.
NORTH LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING IN THE 5-10C
RANGE, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LAKE INDUCED DELTA-TS NEAR
~12-14C LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME COULD REACH NEAR 0.25-0.5"/HOUR. AS A RESULT, HAVE
OPTED TO INCLUDE MENOMINEE COUNTY IN A WINTER STORM WARNING
WHERE 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 6-8 ARE POSSIBLE WHERE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. NEARBY LAKE MICHIGAN ADJACENT COUNTIES DELTA
AND SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COULD SEE A SLIGHT BOOST IN SNOWFALL
AS WELL, THOUGH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH IN
MENOMINEE COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY, HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A SW/NE
LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT BAND TRANSLATING FROM NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR DROPPING INTO THE KEWEENAW AND WEST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD PROVIDE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN
SUFFICIENT LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE. THIS BAND
WOBBLES INTO THE CENTRAL UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER,
SHOULD SEE A WEAKENING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL WORK TO LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE
FAIRLY QUIET WITH COLD NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND FOR CHRISTMAS WEEK AS WARM AIR FROM
MORE TROPICAL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DOWNSLOPES INTO THE CANADIAN AND U.S. PLAINS. THAT BEING SAID, IT
DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL HOLD ON TO COOLER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
LONGER EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION
SNOWFALL EVENT TO POTENTIALLY OCCUR ON MONDAY AS A WAVE MOVING OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS SHOWING REMARKABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FIVE DAYS OUT, AND IF MODEL
CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE U.P. ON MONDAY, INCREASING CHANCES FOR
A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
AFTER MONDAY'S SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST, MODELS INDICATE DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA AND HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLY REACH AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING BOTH DAYS. CPC'S EXTENDED OUTLOOK PAINTS A BLEAK
PICTURE FOR WINTER LOVERS IN THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH VERY HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FINISH OUT THE
REST OF 2024.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THRU EARLY
THIS MORNING, BRINGING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT -SHSN/FLURRIES. AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING -SN INTO UPPER MI THIS AFTN
AND TONIGHT. AT IWD, MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT TO VFR IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN
RETURN TO IWD EARLY THIS AFTN AS -SN DEVELOPS. VIS SHOULD DROP TO
IFR FOR SEVERAL HRS BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO MVFR EARLY THIS
EVENING. AT CMX, A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR IN THE MID MORNING
HRS AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO CMX IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTN AS -SN DEVELOPS. FURTHER VIS REDUCTION TO IFR
SHOULD OCCUR LATE EVENING. AT SAW, SOME FLURRIES WILL LINGER FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. OTHERWISE, MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT TO VFR
EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN EARLY THIS AFTN WITH -SN
DEVELOPING SOON AFTERWARDS. VIS AT SAW WILL FALL TO IFR IN -SN THIS
EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN LAKE
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
A CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO FRIDAY.
WITH ITS PASSAGE, SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP TO NEAR 20 KNOTS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING, THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WHERE GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. AS OF RIGHT NOW, NOT EXPECTING ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS,
HOWEVER AN ISOLATED GUST TO 35 KNOTS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
FRIDAY MORNING (<20% CHANCE). WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 3-6 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF, WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES EAST OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS
FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES PULLING
FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS, WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING, GUSTING UPWARDS OF 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL
LAKE. NOT EXPECTING ANY GALES WITH THIS SLIGHT WIND SHIFT BUT A
STRAY 35 KNOT GUST IS POSSIBLE (<20% CHANCE) NORTH OF PICTURED ROCKS
NAT'L LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN CALM THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST COULD BRING SOUTHERLY GALES EARLY NEXT
WEEK, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE REMAINS LOW (<30%).
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
MIZ010-011.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
MIZ012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR MIZ013-014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...BW
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