685
FXUS63 KMQT 200714
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
214 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM AS WELL AS LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
- A QUICK 1-2" OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS MARQUETTE COUNTY, OTHERWISE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE EAST-CENTRAL U.P. THROUGH SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ON MONDAY WITH LIKELY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE ON A CLIPPER
LOW PROGAGATING THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM POSITIONED ALONG THE
MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHEAST WI. DESPITE DWINDLING SNOW CHANCES
ACROSS MENOMINEE COUNTY WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM, WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARD POSSIBLE LAKE-ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW INTO TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, THE WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO ADVISORY LEVEL FOR
MENOMINEE COUNTY TO BEST CAPTURE THIS TREND. MEANWHILE, ALSO
IMPACTED BY THE N-S LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BAND WILL BE DELTA AND
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. SO, THOSE WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORIES AS
WELL. ELSEWHERE, SOME CAMS CONTINUE TO HINT AT LAKE ENHANCED
BANDING, SOME WITH HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES, ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA TONIGHT. SO, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THE PENSINSULA, TOO. SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS
ADVISORY LEVELS WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARD AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3-5".
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST, A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS A DEEP
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z SAT. THE TROUGH ON
THE WEST COAST WILL HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NW 00Z SUN AND
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z SUN AND NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z MON. THIS
TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRY WEATHER OCCURS SAT NIGHT. COULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT
SUNDAY INTO SUN EVENING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SOUTH WINDS, OTHERWISE CLIPPER SYSTEM POPS ARRIVE
FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IN THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON WITH A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WHICH MOVES
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE
WEST COAST 12Z TUE AND INTO THE ROCKIES 12Z WED. A SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 12Z WED AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z THU. THIS TROUGH MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 12Z FRI. TEMPERATURES
STAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND IT REMAINS RELATIVELY
QUIET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
LOW PRES TROUGH WILL DROP S ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, INITIATING
LAKE EFFECT -SHSN. AT IWD, EXPECT MOSTLY IFR OVERNIGHT, BUT PASSAGE
OF TROF LATER IN THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVIER
SHSN WITH LIFR POSSIBLE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD, MVFR
WILL LIKELY BE THE RULE AT IWD WITH OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND SHALLOW
MOISTURE SUPPORTING STRATOCU AND OCNL FLURRIES. AT CMX, WITH TROF IN
THE PROCESS OF CURRENTLY PASSING, EXPECT FLUCTUATION BTWN MVFR AND
IFR FOR ABOUT THE NEXT HR. MVFR WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH FLURRIES AT TIMES. AT SAW, EXPECT CONDITIONS
VARYING BTWN MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING IFR BECOMING
MORE LIKELY AFTER 10Z AS TROF APPROACHES AND PASSES. LIFR IS A
POSSIBILITY WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE TROF.
MVFR AND OCNL FLURRIES WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PERIOD. AFTER THE TROF PASSAGE, NORTHERLY WINDS AT CMX/SAW WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
WINDS STAY 20 TO 30 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 20 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS THEN
STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO WEDNESDAY. FAIRLY QUIET FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR MIZ001-003-012>014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING FOR MIZ002-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ010-011.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07
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