481
FXUS63 KMQT 200835
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
335 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER THE UP
WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST AS SYSTEM SNOW COMES TO AN END IN
FAVOR OF LAKE ENHANCED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ON MONDAY WITH LIKELY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1015MB LOW OVER THE CHICAGO AREA WITH 500MB
TROUGHING PUSHING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE UP, WITH KMQT RADAR RETURNS SHOWING A
STRONGER BAND NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE MARQUETTE COUNTY SHORELINE
WITH AN EMBEDDED MESOLOW ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF PICTURED ROCKS
NATIONAL LAKESHORE. KDLH RADAR ALSO SHOWS A DOMINANT BAND THAT JUST
PASSED OVER THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA HEADED FOR THE IRONWOOD AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, WITH REDUCTION IN
SNOW SHOWER STRENGTH OUTSIDE OF THOSE BANDS, WILL ELECT TO END
ALL REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT 12Z. WHILE SNOWFALL
RATES OF NEAR AN INCH/HR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BAND OVER
BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTY THIS MORNING, THE BAND WILL NOT
BE STAYING IN ONE SPOT TO ACCUMULATE SNOWFALL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES, THOUGH AN SPS TO LOOKOUT FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE HAS
BEEN ISSUED.
AS SNOW SHOWERS BECOME LIMITED TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE
EAST OF US-41 FROM MARQUETTE TO ESCANABA THROUGHOUT TODAY BEHIND THE
TROUGH ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM THE MORNING,
WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S AFTER MORNING LOWS NEAR
20. THE NAM SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FALLING
TO NEGATIVE 20 C BY 00Z SATURDAY, PLENTY SUPPORTIVE FOR POST-
TROUGH LAKE EFFECT BANDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD FOCUS BANDS
AROUND THE MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING
WITH A LAKE NIPIGON CONNECTION, PROMPTING THE HREF TO SHOW
6-HOURLY PROBABILITIES OF 0.05"+ OF QPF OF 50+ OVER ALGER
COUNTY, AND WITH A SATURATED DGZ, SLRS OF NEAR 20:1 SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TO FALL OVER ALGER COUNTY WITH
SOME POTENTIAL (20-40%) FOR SOME SIMILAR SNOWFALL FOR NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND LUCE COUNTY AS WELL.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST, A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS A DEEP
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z SAT. THE TROUGH ON
THE WEST COAST WILL HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NW 00Z SUN AND
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z SUN AND NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z MON. THIS
TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRY WEATHER OCCURS SAT NIGHT. COULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT
SUNDAY INTO SUN EVENING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SOUTH WINDS, OTHERWISE CLIPPER SYSTEM POPS ARRIVE
FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IN THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON WITH A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WHICH MOVES
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE
WEST COAST 12Z TUE AND INTO THE ROCKIES 12Z WED. A SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 12Z WED AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z THU. THIS TROUGH MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 12Z FRI. TEMPERATURES
STAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND IT REMAINS RELATIVELY
QUIET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
LOW PRES TROUGH WILL DROP S ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, INITIATING
LAKE EFFECT -SHSN. AT IWD, EXPECT MOSTLY IFR OVERNIGHT, BUT PASSAGE
OF TROF LATER IN THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVIER
SHSN WITH LIFR POSSIBLE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD, MVFR
WILL LIKELY BE THE RULE AT IWD WITH OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND SHALLOW
MOISTURE SUPPORTING STRATOCU AND OCNL FLURRIES. AT CMX, WITH TROF IN
THE PROCESS OF CURRENTLY PASSING, EXPECT FLUCTUATION BTWN MVFR AND
IFR FOR ABOUT THE NEXT HR. MVFR WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH FLURRIES AT TIMES. AT SAW, EXPECT CONDITIONS
VARYING BTWN MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING IFR BECOMING
MORE LIKELY AFTER 10Z AS TROF APPROACHES AND PASSES. LIFR IS A
POSSIBILITY WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE TROF.
MVFR AND OCNL FLURRIES WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PERIOD. AFTER THE TROF PASSAGE, NORTHERLY WINDS AT CMX/SAW WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
WINDS STAY 20 TO 30 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 20 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS THEN
STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO WEDNESDAY. FAIRLY QUIET FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR MIZ001>003-009-012>014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07
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