469
FXUS63 KMQT 201817
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
117 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER THE UP
WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST AS SYSTEM SNOW COMES TO AN END IN
FAVOR OF LAKE ENHANCED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ON MONDAY WITH LIKELY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1015MB LOW OVER THE CHICAGO AREA WITH 500MB
TROUGHING PUSHING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE UP, WITH KMQT RADAR RETURNS SHOWING A
STRONGER BAND NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE MARQUETTE COUNTY SHORELINE
WITH AN EMBEDDED MESOLOW ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF PICTURED ROCKS
NATIONAL LAKESHORE. KDLH RADAR ALSO SHOWS A DOMINANT BAND THAT JUST
PASSED OVER THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA HEADED FOR THE IRONWOOD AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, WITH REDUCTION IN
SNOW SHOWER STRENGTH OUTSIDE OF THOSE BANDS, WILL ELECT TO END
ALL REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT 12Z. WHILE SNOWFALL
RATES OF NEAR AN INCH/HR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BAND OVER
BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTY THIS MORNING, THE BAND WILL NOT
BE STAYING IN ONE SPOT TO ACCUMULATE SNOWFALL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES, THOUGH AN SPS TO LOOKOUT FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE HAS
BEEN ISSUED.
AS SNOW SHOWERS BECOME LIMITED TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE
EAST OF US-41 FROM MARQUETTE TO ESCANABA THROUGHOUT TODAY BEHIND THE
TROUGH ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM THE MORNING,
WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S AFTER MORNING LOWS NEAR
20. THE NAM SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FALLING
TO NEGATIVE 20 C BY 00Z SATURDAY, PLENTY SUPPORTIVE FOR POST-
TROUGH LAKE EFFECT BANDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD FOCUS BANDS
AROUND THE MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING
WITH A LAKE NIPIGON CONNECTION, PROMPTING THE HREF TO SHOW
6-HOURLY PROBABILITIES OF 0.05"+ OF QPF OF 50+ OVER ALGER
COUNTY, AND WITH A SATURATED DGZ, SLRS OF NEAR 20:1 SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TO FALL OVER ALGER COUNTY WITH
SOME POTENTIAL (20-40%) FOR SOME SIMILAR SNOWFALL FOR NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND LUCE COUNTY AS WELL.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST, A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS A DEEP
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z SAT. THE TROUGH ON
THE WEST COAST WILL HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NW 00Z SUN AND
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z SUN AND NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z MON. THIS
TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRY WEATHER OCCURS SAT NIGHT. COULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT
SUNDAY INTO SUN EVENING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SOUTH WINDS, OTHERWISE CLIPPER SYSTEM POPS ARRIVE
FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IN THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON WITH A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WHICH MOVES
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE
WEST COAST 12Z TUE AND INTO THE ROCKIES 12Z WED. A SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 12Z WED AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z THU. THIS TROUGH MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 12Z FRI. TEMPERATURES
STAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND IT REMAINS RELATIVELY
QUIET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
UP THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THEY
TURN MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT SAW DURING THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD, HOWEVER SOME SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO RETURN TO CMX THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES WILL PRIMARILY BE MVFR, BUT FEW/SCT CLOUD
DECKS ARE LIKELY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT IWD/CMX
BEFORE SKY COVERAGE INCREASES AND CIGS LOWER LATER TONIGHT.
DEPENDING ON WHERE A DOMINATING LAKE EFFECT BAND SETS UP LATE
TONIGHT, SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT SAW LATE. OPTED TO HOLD
OF ON IFR OR LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY YET
REGARDING LAKE EFFECT BAND PLACEMENT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
WINDS STAY 20 TO 30 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 20 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS THEN
STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO WEDNESDAY. FAIRLY QUIET FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JABLONSKI
MARINE...07
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