080
FXUS63 KMQT 220755
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
255 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A SOUTHERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND WILL IMPACT EASTERN
UPPER MI ON SUNDAY, BRINGING UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A
NARROW BAND NEAR MANISTIQUE.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS ANTICIPATED
TO BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE UP. SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE FAR EAST MAY LOCALLY BOOST TOTALS UP TO
3-4 INCHES, RESULTING IN MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 103 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
GOES WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS POSITIONS UPPER MICHIGAN WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR EAST
AND BROAD RIDGING TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
UPPER MICHIGAN TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HAS KEPT
WINDS LIGHT AND MOSTLY NORTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH 850MB TEMPS
ANALYZED BETWEEN -18 AND -15C AND LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR +4-6C (PER
SPC MESOANALYSIS AND GLERL RESPECTIVELY), IN ADDITION TO THE MIXED
LAYER EXTENDING TO NEAR 5K FEET THROUGH THE DGZ, THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
SUPPORTED HIGH SNOW RATIO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRESSING SOUTH
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. KMQT AND CASMR RADARS LIMIT ACTIVITY MAINLY TO
MARQUETTE COUNTY AND POINTS EASTWARD, BUT WEBCAMS HAVE SHOWN SOME
LIGHT OFF AND ON SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
STRONGEST BANDS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED ALONG THE LAKESHORE OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY DOWN TO NEAR GWINN WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE HAS SUPPORTED
PERIODIC RADAR REFLECTIVITIES BETWEEN 30 AND 35 DBZ. THESE HIGHER
SIGNATURES HAVE BEEN MAINLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE RADAR IN A
NARROW CORRIDOR APPROXIMATELY FROM HARVEY SOUTH TO LITTLE
LAKE/GWINN BETWEEN SANDS/KSAW/GWINN AND SKANDIA/CARLSHEND. I SUSPECT
THESE LOCATIONS COULD HAVE OBSERVED A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THIS
MORNING, PARTICULARLY WHERE TERRAIN HAS SUPPORTED ADDITIONAL LIFT,
AND THE MOST RESTRICTIVE VISIBILITIES.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE THROUGH THE REGION, ENABLING FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY.
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE DELAYED THIS WIND SHIFT A LITTLE, SO SNOW
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN WIND SNOW BELTS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AT THAT POINT, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP LIFT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IF THE SHOWERS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO DIMINISH, ADDITIONAL SNOW OF AN INCH IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES NOT
BEING RULED OUT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CAM, RADAR, AND SATELLITE
TRENDS THOUGH AFTER PUBLISHING THIS TO DETERMINE IF ANOTHER SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT IS NEEDED FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY.
AFTER ACTIVITY ENDS, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR
WEST MAY DIP CLOSE OR JUST BELOW ZERO. JUST PRIOR TO 12Z, SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL HELP TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN/BAY
OF GREEN BAY BY MORNING. RECENT CAMS ARE SUPPORTING A WIDER RANGE OF
WHERE SHOWERS MAY BE EXPERIENCED. AT THIS POINT, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
STREAMING NORTH MAY END UP AS FAR WEST AS ESCANABA BEFORE SUNRISE.
IF THIS DOES OCCUR, THE THOUGHT IS FOR THESE TO MIGRATE EAST INTO
SCHOOLCRAFT/MACKINAC COUNTIES. ANY SNOW EXPERIENCED PRIOR TO SUNRISE
WOULD LIKELY AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR TWO OF FLUFFY SNOW.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS 00Z MON WHICH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND 12Z TUE. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS 12Z
TUE AND THIS AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z WED. CLIPPER SYSTEM
TONIGHT WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF IT AND COMBINED WITH SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS THE EAST. COULD SEE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA OUT OF THIS EVENT. WENT DRY FOR
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY 12Z
WED. THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z
THU. DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP WITH THIS AS CANADIAN AND ECMWF TAKES
IT EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE OZARK AREA WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 12Z FRI. MODELS
GET BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT 12Z SAT WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL U.S. THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 12Z SUN.
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WENT DRIER INTO THU. NBM WAS WAY TOO
HIGH WITH POPS AS WARM FRONT WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH. WARM FRONT
HEADS NORTH FOR FRIDAY AND DID KEEP SOME POPS IN THU NIGHT ONWARD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL AT IWD/CMX INTO THIS EVENING. APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN AID DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CLOUDS, MVFR CIGS,
TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. AT SAW, ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE HAS PASSED, RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INSTEAD OF SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DELAYED CLEARING. EXPECT LINGERING MVFR CIGS TO
SCATTER OUT TO VFR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY
TRENDS. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL AT SAW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PERIOD. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TODAY BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES
RIDGE AND APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO AROUND 20KT AT ALL TERMINALS BY AFTN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
SOUTH WINDS GET UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS TODAY OUT HEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE WIND GETS BACK UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MON AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTH BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW 20 KNOTS BY MONDAY EVENING
WHERE IT STAYS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THU.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07
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