036
FXUS63 KMQT 221210
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
710 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A SOUTHERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND WILL IMPACT EASTERN
UPPER MI TODAY, BRINGING UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A
NARROW BAND NEAR MANISTIQUE.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS ANTICIPATED
TO BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE UP. SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE FAR EAST MAY LOCALLY BOOST TOTALS UP TO
3-4 INCHES, RESULTING IN MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS THROUGH MONDAY.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 444 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
RAP/SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WIND SNOW BELTS FOR NOW. FOCUS, HOWEVER, TURNS
TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, IMPACTING BOTH DELTA AND SOUTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. DUE TO UNDERPERFORMANCE OF SNOW BANDS SO FAR
THOUGH, WILL OPT TO CONTINUE WITH ONLY AN SPS FOR BOTH DELTA AND
SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES WITH TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN, BUT WINDY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. WIDESPREAD SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S WILL CREATE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY, GROUND-BASED OBS ACROSS THE AREA
ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS 00Z MON WHICH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND 12Z TUE. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS 12Z
TUE AND THIS AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z WED. CLIPPER SYSTEM
TONIGHT WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF IT AND COMBINED WITH SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS THE EAST. COULD SEE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA OUT OF THIS EVENT. WENT DRY FOR
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY 12Z
WED. THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z
THU. DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP WITH THIS AS CANADIAN AND ECMWF TAKES
IT EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE OZARK AREA WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 12Z FRI. MODELS
GET BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT 12Z SAT WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL U.S. THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 12Z SUN.
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WENT DRIER INTO THU. NBM WAS WAY TOO
HIGH WITH POPS AS WARM FRONT WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH. WARM FRONT
HEADS NORTH FOR FRIDAY AND DID KEEP SOME POPS IN THU NIGHT ONWARD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 710 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE
AREA STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER, MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EARLY TONIGHT WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION TO
IFR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE AREA. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
SOUTH WINDS GET UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS TODAY OUT HEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE WIND GETS BACK UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MON AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTH BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW 20 KNOTS BY MONDAY EVENING
WHERE IT STAYS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THU.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...07
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