655
FXUS63 KMQT 151136
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
636 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN THE NW WIND BELTS THIS
MORNING, WITH ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES BEFORE SNOW LIFTS OFFSHORE INTO THE
LATE MORNING.
- A CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING A QUICK BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST
OF THE UP THIS EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LINGERS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND BELTS
THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER 1-3IN OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED IN THOSE WIND BELTS, WITH LIGHTER TOTALS MAINLY OF
AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REST OF THE UP.
- SW GALES OF 35-40KTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON, ENDING BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.
- GALES TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BECOMING NORTHWEST
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR.
- BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBZERO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING OVER INTERIOR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
ARE POSSIBLE (75%). SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO HIGHS AND SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
- SNOW SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CAUSE MINI WHITEOUTS
AND VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND
SNOW BELTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SKIES CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH LINGERING LES FINALLY LIFTING OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. A BRIEF DRY, SUNNY PERIOD THIS MORNING STILL LOOKS
TO BE FOLLOWED UP BY ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH OUR APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALREADY MOVING INTO NW
MN. APART FROM SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR-
WESTERN UP (WHICH HAS REMAINED JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
EXPECTED), THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 223 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WNW WIND BELTS OF THE WESTERN
AND EASTERN UP EARLY THIS MORNING - STEADIER INTO ALGER AND LUCE
COUNTIES WITH A GREATER FETCH OFF OF SUPERIOR. ELSEWHERE, DRY
MIDLEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN ARE KEEPING
SNOWFALL RATES LOW. ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN UP EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE, THE UP REMAINS UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW LAKE
CLOUDS, BUT CLOUD COVER IS ALREADY STARTING TO ERODE IN SOUTHERN
GOGEBIC COUNTY WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO BACK SOUTHWESTERLY THERE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE UP, BUT MAY BE ABLE TO DROP CLOSER TO ZERO NEAR
THE WI BORDER IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR A LITTLE MORE RAPIDLY THAN HAS BEEN
THE TREND SO FAR TONIGHT. ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND THE EASTERN UP,
LOOK FOR LOWS NEARER TO 10F.
AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH WINDS BACKING MORE TO THE SW DUE TO RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST, EXPECT LES TO
LIFT OFFSHORE. MOST OF THE UP SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TRACKS THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING, WITH MOST OF THE UP PICKING UP ON SOME LIGHT SNOW TOTALS.
WITH SW FLOW, SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED OFF OF BOTH LAKE
MICHIGAN IN THE EASTERN UP AND OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
KEWEENAW THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO A QUICK 1-2IN
WITH THIS FIRST BATCH, WHILE ELSEWHERE TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY
BELOW AN INCH. HOWEVER, AS WINDS VEER WESTERLY, THEN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD, LOOK FOR ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WIND BELTS IN THE WESTERN UP BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
WINDS, MEANWHILE, WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE PASSING
CLIPPER SETS UP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SW
GALES UP TO 35-40KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-30MPH ALONG THE SHORELINES OF THE WESTERN UP AND
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. 20-30MPH GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES IN THE EASTERN UP. INLAND, EXPECT GUSTS TO
AROUND 20MPH TODAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND FURTHER
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL INCLUDE RIDGING MOVING UP THE WEST COAST
WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF TO 2/3 OF
CANADA/CONUS. WITHIN THIS REGIME, UPPER MICHIGAN WILL BE EXPOSED TO
A SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A VERY COLD AIRMASS
WILL STRETCH SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK. HOMEOWNERS AND PROPERTY MANAGERS WHO'VE HAD ISSUES WITH WATER
PIPES FREEZING DURING PERIODS OF VERY COLD CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONSIDER MAKING PREPARATIONS NOW. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DAILY SUBZERO TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR WEST AND NEAR
ZERO HIGHS IN THE EAST. THESE TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF DAYTIME
HEATING COULD RESULT IN WATER SUPPLY PIPES FREEZING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH VERY LITTLE SNOW COVER. ADDITIONALLY, THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
WORK AGAINST LARGE SNOW FLAKE GROWTH. INSTEAD OF BIG FAT DENDRITES,
FINER/POWDERY TYPE SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THIS KIND OF SNOW
IS VERY EFFECTIVE AT BLOWING AROUND AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES. MINI
WHITEOUTS AND VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SHOULD BE EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS,
PARTICULARLY AS VEHICLES PASS EACH OTHER.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR;
BUT INCOMING SURFACE RIDGE AND DRY AIR WILL WORK AGAINST SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AND SUPPORTING A DIMINISHING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. I WOULD ALSO EXPECT A BLUSTERY DAY IN THE KEWEENAW,
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS POTENTIALLY ABOVE 30 MPH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THOUGH, WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RELAX DURING THE AFTERNOON. MILD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY, WITH MANY ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY CLIMBING TO NEAR 30
OR BREAKING INTO THE LOW 30S.
ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER CLIPPER AND COLD FRONT WILL PRESS OUT OF CANADA
TOWARD THE REGION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE CLIPPER'S
PASSAGE WELL, PRESENTING A CONSENSUS OF THE LOW PRESSING THROUGH
ONTARIO, WHICH SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT ITSELF APPEARS TO STRUGGLE
OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR BUILDING IN THURSDAY, SO IMPACTFUL SNOW ISN'T
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WELL UPSTREAM, RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
BUILD UP THE WEST COAST INTO THE ARCTIC, WHICH WILL ENABLE ARCTIC
AIR TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH CANADA AND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE VERSION OF THE LREF SUGGESTS 30-80%
CHANCE OF 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AT LEAST -30C ACROSS THE WEST HALF
AND NEAR 100% CHANCE OF 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AT LEAST -25C ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF SUBZERO HIGHS AND LOWS FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHILE ELSEWHERE, SINGLE DIGIT
HIGHS ABOVE ZERO AND NEAR ZERO OR SINGLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO LOWS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. COLDEST CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FALLING BELOW
ZERO AND MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS BETWEEN -10 AND -20F. DURING THIS
COLD SNAP, EVEN MINOR WINDS COULD RESULT IN CONDITIONS FEELING LIKE -
15 TO -35F. IF WE END UP EXPERIENCING MULTIPLE SUBZERO OR NEAR ZERO
DAYS, INCREASING FROST DEPTH OR SUB-OPTIMAL INSULATION MAY RESULT IN
PIPES FREEZING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITH LITTLE SNOW PACK.
THE COLD AIR WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LAKES AND LAND, WHICH WILL
HELP SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND MARQUETTE
COUNTIES AND NORTHEAST FLOW OFF ONTARIO. EXPECTING THESE TO ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND STRONG SNOW BANDING INTO ONTONAGON/HOUGHTON
COUNTIES, EASTERN MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES, AND LUCE COUNTY. THE
COLD AIR WILL ALSO POSITION THE DGZ AT OR BELOW THE GROUND, WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN FINE, COLUMNAR AND PLATE-LIKE SNOW CRYSTALS THAT ARE
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING IN THE WIND. THIS WILL SUPPORT HAZARDOUS
TO VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
FOLLOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CEILINGS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, MVFR CEILINGS RETURN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM WEST TO
EAST. SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY TO IWD AND CMX, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS AT SAW IS LOWER, SO HAVE ONLY CARRIED A
PROB30 THERE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER FROM 00Z ONWARD AT IWD
AND CMX, WITH MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE ELEVATED TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30KTS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
MULTIPLE PASSING CLIPPERS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AT OVER THE LAKE AT TIMES IN THIS PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED AND
DEEPENING COLD AIR BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK.
TODAY, A CLIPPER WILL ROLL SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST OF HUDSON BAY,
WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF
ITS FRONT. ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST HIGH PROBABILITIES
(>75%) FOR SOUTHWEST GALES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
WHILE THE ENTIRE SPECTRUM OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS WITHIN OR
NEAR THE GALE RANGE, EXACTLY HOW HIGH IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE. THERE
HAS BEEN A SLIGHT DECREASING TREND BETWEEN LAST NIGHT AND TONIGHT'S
GUIDANCE, BUT THE WARM NATURE OF THE LAKE AND ANTICIPATED PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 40-45KTS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE INHERITED GALE WARNING FOR TODAY. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY
TONIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY.
WINDS SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR WINDS TO INCREASE
TO NEAR 30 KNOTS LAKE-WIDE. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING ON A SOUTHERLY
GALE EVENT LAKE-WIDE, PERHAPS A HIGH END GALE EVENT IN THE EAST HALF
PRIOR TO THE FRONT PRESSING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LAKE DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT, PROBABILITY FOR THIS IS ABOUT 50%. AFTER
THE FRONT, CONTINUED PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES AND COLD AIR WILL
SUPPORTED THE CONTINUED RISK FOR GALES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. VERY
COLD AIR WILL POUR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AFTERWARDS AND LINGER
INTO NEXT WEEK, LIKELY SUPPORTING WINDS 25-30KTS IN MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE LAKE.
THESE STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASING COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT PERIODS WHERE ICE GROWTH FROM FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. EXPECTING LOW TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY RATES PRIMARILY,
BUT THE INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND MAY SUPPORT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 1 AM
EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ241>244-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
UPDATE...LC
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...JTP
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