205
FXUS63 KMQT 161138
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
638 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW LINGERS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND BELTS
THIS MORNING, SLOWLY TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER 1-3
IN OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THOSE WIND BELTS, WITH LIGHTER
TOTALS MAINLY OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REST OF THE UP.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO SUBZERO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING OVER INTERIOR WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.
- HOMEOWNERS AND PROPERTY MANAGERS SHOULD TAKE ACTION NOW FOR
THIS COLD AIR, ESPECIALLY IF PAST EVENTS HAVE YIELDED
IMPACTS. ENSURE YOUR WINTER CAR SURVIVAL KIT IS UP-TO-DATE
NOW. THIS WEEKEND, LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS FOR YOU AND PETS AND
CHECK ON VULNERABLE NEIGHBORS.
- FREQUENT WHITEOUTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE FALLING SNOW
BEING A FINE, POWDERY TYPE SNOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS.
- NO WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS FOR UPPER MI THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
NEARLY ALL OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURS WILL BE LAKE EFFECT
DRIVEN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE SHIFTING
NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
THE UP. THIS WILL KICK OFF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY, WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF JAMES
BAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AT
THIS TIME. MEANWHILE, RIDGING IS APPARENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
THOUGH MOST OF THE INITIAL BATCH OF "SYSTEM" SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA, SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE
UP WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WINDS VEER TO THE NW, WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C,
EXPECT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO KICK OFF IN THE NW WIND BELTS OF
THE WESTERN UP, AND EVENTUALLY IN THE EASTERN UP AFTER SUNRISE.
ANOTHER 1-3IN OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW WIND BELTS THIS
MORNING. LES WRAPS UP IN THE WESTERN UP INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GREAT LAKES, BRINGING DRIER AIR, BACKING
WINDS, AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS. IN THE EASTERN UP, THE LONGER
FETCH OFF OF THE LAKE SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOIST ENOUGH FOR LIGHT LES
TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY LIGHT AT GENERALLY BELOW AN INCH.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY TODAY AS NW WINDS GUST UP TO
20-25MPH, AND HIGHER TO 30MPH NEARER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS MAY LEAD
TO BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY LAKESIDE. TEMPERATURES,
MEANWHILE, TURN MUCH WARMER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS IN SPITE OF OUR
CLOUD COVER; LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO START OFF GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS THIS MORNING BEFORE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT WHILE ANOTHER CLIPPER
DROPS TOWARDS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WINDS BACKING SOUTHERLY WILL
FINALLY KICK LINGERING LES OFFSHORE, AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AFTER DARK MAY HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
RISE SLIGHTLY THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH WAA INTO THE REGION. THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, BUT
THIS WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A PRETTY DRY SFC-750MB AIRMASS.
STILL, HAVE ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IF WE CAN BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP AT LOWER
LEVELS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
COLD AIR THAT WILL POUR OUT OF CANADA THIS WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON DANGEROUS COLD AIR
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD (80-100% CHANCE) THAT THE INTERIOR WEST
WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE THE EAST AND
LAKESHORES ONLY WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS MEANS
HOMEOWNERS AND PROPERTY MANAGERS WILL BE AT RISK FOR PIPES FREEZING,
PARTICULARLY THOSE WHO HAVE HAD ISSUES WITH WATER PIPES FREEZING IN
THE PAST. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW. AREAS ESPECIALLY AT RISK
WILL BE LOCATIONS WITH VERY LITTLE SNOW COVER, WHICH COULD
EXPERIENCE RAPIDLY DEEPENING FROST DEPTHS. ADDITIONALLY, THE COLD
AIR WILL MEAN SNOW SHOWERS PRESSING INTO THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS WILL DROP VERY FINE, POWDERY TYPE SNOW. THIS KIND OF SNOW IS
VERY EFFECTIVE AT BLOWING AROUND AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES. FREQUENT
WHITEOUTS AND VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SHOULD BE EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS,
PARTICULARLY AS VEHICLES PASS EACH OTHER.
BEGINNING FRIDAY, AMPLIFYING RIDGING BUILDING NORTH UP THE WEST
COAST INTO THE ARCTIC WILL FORCE A SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA AND EASTWARD OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE DAY.
AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSES EAST JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL PRESS WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AREA. SYNOPTIC SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE POSSIBLE,
BUT THE INCREASING DRY AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL
WORK AGAINST SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, SO IMPACTFUL SNOW IS
NOT EXPECTED. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING, WHICH WILL SUPPORT
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35MPH ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 45 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE EAST HALF, ESPECIALLY
IN DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FROM MARQUETTE COUNTY
EASTWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL PRESS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO THE COLD AIR POURING IN
FROM OUR NORTH. RECENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850MB TEMPS
RANGING FROM -25 TO -15C FROM WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY THE 850MB TEMPS IN THE EAST FALLING TO AROUND -20C BY
EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TEENS TO HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS WEST AND MID-TEENS EAST, BUT FALLING OR NEAR-STEADY
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AND COULD GUST
NEAR 20 MPH FOR MANY LOCATIONS. LAKESHORES AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
AND IN THE KEWEENAW MAY EXPERIENCE DAYTIME GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. THIS
WILL YIELD NEAR TO SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. POST FRONTAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO RAMP UP THROUGH THE
DAY, BUT AS NOTED EARLIER, HEAVY SNOWFALL ISN'T THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
VISIBILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALLER, PLATE AND COLUMNAR SNOW
CRYSTALS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THESE CRYSTALS ARE EASILY
LOFTED BY WIND, SO NOT ONLY WILL THE UNDERLYING WIND RESULT IN
PERIODIC LOW VISIBILITY TO WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND SNOW BELTS, BUT PASSING CARS WILL AS WELL.
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE VERSION OF
THE LREF CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS 30-80% CHANCE OF 850MB TEMPS FALLING
TO AT LEAST -30C ACROSS THE WEST HALF AND NEAR 100% CHANCE OF
FALLING TO AT LEAST -25C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST AIRMASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE
WEST, WHICH THE LREF SUGGESTS AN 80-100% CHANCE OF BEING BELOW ZERO
AT ANY GIVEN TIME. THE LREF SUGGESTS THE EAST HAS A 40-80% CHANCE OF
BEING BELOW ZERO, MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE SAME ENSEMBLE SYSTEM SUGGESTS 20-50% FOR DAYTIME TEMPS MONDAY TO
REMAIN BELOW ZERO. OVERALL, THE CONSENSUS IS FOR COLDEST CONDITIONS
TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WHEN THE COLDEST SPOTS IN THE WEST
COULD DIP BELOW -15F AND -20F RESPECTIVELY. DURING THIS COLD SNAP,
EVEN MINOR WINDS COULD RESULT IN CONDITIONS FEELING LIKE -15 TO -
35F. THESE CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE IN
LESS THAN 30 MINUTES. ANYONE WITH OUTSIDE PLANS IN THIS PERIOD
SHOULD LIMIT TIME OUTSIDE. EVERYONE IS ENCOURAGED TO ENSURE THEIR
WINTER CAR SURVIVAL KIT IS UP TO DATE. CHECK ON VULNERABLE NEIGHBORS
AND LIMIT OUTDOOR TIME FOR PETS.
THE COLD AIR WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LAKES AND LAND, WHICH WILL HELP OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP
OFF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES AND FLOW OFF ONTARIO.
EXPECTING THESE TO ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND STRONG SNOW BANDING INTO
ONTONAGON/HOUGHTON COUNTIES, EASTERN MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES, AND
LUCE COUNTY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH THE ONSET OF WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL HELP
LAKE EFFECT FOCUS MAINLY INTO THE KEWEENAW AND CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORE IN THE EAST. A CLIPPER LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT
SHOT FOR SYNOPTIC SNOW. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE
TEENS WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
MVFR RESTRICTIONS PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH LAKE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND OCCASIONAL DROPS IN
VISIBILITY THIS MORNING IN PASSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER
00Z, CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN, THOUGH CMX
MAY NOT REACH VFR UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS
TURNING TO THE NW PICK UP THIS MORNING, GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25KTS.
WINDS TURN CALMER WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, THEN
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO IMPACT IWD AND CMX AFTER 06Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
A COUPLE OF PASSING CLIPPERS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE AT TIMES IN THIS PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY
DEEPENING ARCTIC COLD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING'S CLIPPER. EXPECT WINDS NEAR 30KTS BEFORE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY, LIKELY FALLING BELOW 20KTS LATE THIS
EVENING. SUSPECT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS NEAR 35KTS WILL BE MIXED IN
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, LIKELY CLIMBING TO GALE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT CLIPPER. SLIGHT INCREASE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
HIGH END GALES ACROSS THE EAST HALF ARE NOW EXPECTED. AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PRESSES THROUGH WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY, NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR SURGES THROUGH AND
PRESSURE RISES PEAK. ANOTHER HIGH END GALE LOOKS LIKELY. WENT AHEAD
AND UPGRADED THE INHERITED GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING AND EXTENDED
IT IN TIME TO BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING. THESE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD
LIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ENDS, BUT THE LINGERING
VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE LAKE WILL SUPPORT 20-35 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE LAKE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. THERE'S SOME INDICATIONS
FOR ANOTHER CLIPPER MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD INCREASE WINDS
AGAIN.
THE INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR ARRIVING OVER WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT
PERIODS WHERE ICE GROWTH FROM FREEZING SPRAY. EXPECTING MODERATE TO
HEAVY ICE ACCRETION RATES AT TIMES.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST /NOON
CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162-240>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
UPDATE...LC
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...JTP
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