223
FXUS63 KMQT 171133
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
633 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BLUSTERY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP TODAY, TURNING TO THE NW
TONIGHT BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS UP TO
40-50MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORELINES OF MARQUETTE,
ALGER, AND LUCE COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, AND ACROSS THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NW WIND BELTS TONIGHT,
WITH 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY THE MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING
SUBZERO FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING
OVER INTERIOR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MUCH OF THE REST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN MAY SEE TEMPERATURES FAIL TO RISE
ABOVE ZERO ON MONDAY AND MAYBE TUESDAY.
- HOMEOWNERS AND PROPERTY MANAGERS SHOULD TAKE ACTION NOW FOR
THIS COLD PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IF PAST VERY COLD PERIODS HAVE
YIELDED IMPACTS. ENSURE YOUR WINTER CAR SURVIVAL KIT IS UP-TO-
DATE. THIS WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY, LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS FOR
YOU AND YOUR PETS, AND CHECK ON VULNERABLE NEIGHBORS.
- FREQUENT WHITEOUTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE FALLING SNOW
BEING A FINE, POWDERY TYPE SNOW THAT IS HIGHLY EFFECTIVE AT
REDUCING VISIBILITY. EXPECT VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS.
- NO WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS FOR UPPER MI THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
NEARLY ALL OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURS WILL BE LAKE EFFECT DRIVEN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP 988MB CLIPPER LOW
IS MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE MN/ON BORDER, WITH A BLUSTERY DAY AHEAD.
ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND SPORADIC WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE
STREAMING ACROSS THE UP. WITH DRY LOWER-MIDLEVEL AIR IN PLACE,
NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND JUST YET, BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE EASTERN UP BEGINNING LATER
THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTED RIGHT OVER
THE UP/WI/LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH A DEEPENING CLIPPER LOW ANALYZED OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AT LOWER LEVELS, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS LEADING TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER, WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE 40-50KT LLJ ANALYZED OVER MINNESOTA. WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT INTO THE UP IS BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER,
AND SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE EVEN POPPING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE UP. HOWEVER, 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF GRB AND MPX SHOW VERY
DRY LOWER AND MIDLEVELS, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR THIS THE REST OF
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UP. THIS WILL MAKE IT HARD
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOVER IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S,
OR PERHAPS EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY WITH WARMER AIR STREAMING INTO THE
AREA. WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UP, WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 20-30MPH IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE SUNRISE.
BY THE MORNING, DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN UP
WHILE THE EXIT REGION OF THE LLJ BECOMES DIRECTED OVER THE AREA. WE
THUS STAND A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING LIGHT SNOW THERE, ESPECIALLY
WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. STILL, AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY COME IN BELOW AN INCH. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE UP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE
IN THE DAY SHIFTS WINDS TO THE W AND EVENTUALLY NW, KICKING OFF A
ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT. MEANWHILE, SOUTHERLY WINDS TURN QUITE BLUSTERY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 20-35MPH GUSTS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE UP, WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40MPH POSSIBLE AS WELL IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE EASTERN UP. EVEN STRONGER GUSTS AROUND
45MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS NEAR SUPERIOR ACROSS
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES, AND POTENTIALLY LUCE COUNTY AS WELL,
WITH SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A POTENTIAL TO MIX
INTO THE 45-50KT LAYER. WITH THAT, A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL ADD IN LUCE COUNTY AS WELL.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UP BY
THE EARLY EVENING, PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES, WITH ALL BUT
THE FAR EASTERN UP IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE. WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NW WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY GIVEN RAPID PRESSURE RISES, WITH 20-
30MPH GUSTS COMMON ACROSS THE UP AND HIGHER GUSTS TO 40MPH EXPECTED
NEARER THE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. ACROSS THE KEWEENAW, MIXED LAYER
WINDS UP TO 40-50MPH WILL LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONGER WIND
GUSTS THERE - PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE AND ALONG THE
SPINE. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KEWEENAW THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT, AFTER WHICH WINDS ALOFT START TO SLACKEN.
LES KICKS OFF IN THE NW WIND BELTS TONIGHT AS WELL, THOUGH A SHALLOW
(AROUND 2KFT) DGZ GRADUALLY DESCENDING TO THE SURFACE WITH SUCH A
CHILLY AIRMASS WORKING IN WILL LIMIT SNOW RATIOS SOMEWHAT. WILL CAP
THOSE AROUND 20:1, IN LINE WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS A
GOOD 1-3IN OF SNOWFALL IN THE NW WIND BELTS OF THE WESTERN AND
EASTERN UP BY SUNRISE, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS BELOW AN INCH STILL
EXTENDING PRETTY FAR INLAND INTO THE CENTRAL UP.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE U.S. THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE DRIVEN BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NORTHWARD THRU ALASKA/NW CANADA INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND, FORCING A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENING TROF DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
CENTRAL TO EASTERN N AMERICA. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT 500MB IN
THIS TROF SETTLE AT ~320M (2.2-2.6 SIGMA) OVER WI ON MON. OVER THE
LAST 24HRS OF MODEL RUNS, ENSEMBLES HAVE SETTLED ON 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO -30 TO -31C INTO WESTERN UPPER MI IN THE CORE OF THE
COLD AIR AS IT REACHES UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS THAT LOW AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR VERY EASILY SUPPORT 2M TEMPS REMAINING SUBZERO DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HRS ACROSS INTERIOR WESTERN UPPER MI AND LIKELY THRU MUCH
OF CENTRAL UPPER MI AS WELL. IN ADDITION, WITH 850MB TEMPS AT -30C
TO -31C AT LOWEST, WOULD EXPECT TEMPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OVER
INTERIOR WESTERN UPPER MI (GENERALLY IRONWOOD TO IRON RIVER AREA) TO
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE -10F SUN/MON, MON IN PARTICULAR AS THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR PASSES ON THAT DAY, LEADING TO THE COLDEST DAY FCST
AREA WIDE. ONCE TEMPS FALL BLO 0F OVER INTERIOR WESTERN UPPER MI SAT
NIGHT, THEY WON'T RISE ABOVE 0F UNTIL SOMETIME TUE AFTN AT THE VERY
EARLIEST, BUT IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY NOW THAT IT WILL BE LATE WED
MORNING BEFORE THAT HAPPENS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS FROM
MENOMINEE TO ESCANABA, MANISTIQUE AND NEWBERRY, AND ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE WHERE W TO NW WINDS ARE ONSHORE, MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE FCST AREA MAY REMAIN BLO 0F MON AND POTENTIALLY TUE. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE DOWN THRU THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND -20S F AWAY FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. TEMPS WILL EVEN FALL SUBZERO TO LAKE SUPERIOR, EXCEPT
WHERE W TO NW WINDS ARE ONSHORE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MORNING OR TWO WITH AIR TEMPS FALLING TO OR BLO -30F IN IRON COUNTY,
MAYBE GOGEBIC COUNTY, BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER SFC WINDS
LARGELY DECOUPLE. SEEMS UNLIKELY, BUT SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT WOULD
BE THE NIGHTS TO WATCH. A FEW RECORD LOW MIN AND RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPS MAY BE SET ACROSS UPPER MI WITH THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK.
HOMEOWNERS AND PROPERTY MANAGERS WHO HAVE HAD ISSUES WITH WATER
PIPES FREEZING DURING PERIODS OF VERY COLD CONDITIONS SHOULD MAKE
PREPARATIONS NOW. AREAS THAT HAVE VERY LITTLE SNOW COVER COULD ALSO
BECOME AT RISK FOR FREEZING OF WATER SUPPLY LINES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
GROUND FROST DEPTHS DEEPEN RAPIDLY.
FORTUNATELY, WINDS WON'T BE STRONG TO REALLY DRIVE WIND CHILLS DOWN
DURING THIS THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK. NONETHELESS, THE COLD WILL BE
DANGEROUS, AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO WARRANT COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES.
A FEW EXTREME COLD WARNINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTERIOR W. EVEN LIGHT
WINDS COULD RESULT IN CONDITIONS FEELING LIKE -20 TO -40. THESE
CONDITIONS CAN RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE IN LESS THAN 30
MINUTES. ANYONE WITH OUTSIDE PLANS IN THIS PERIOD SHOULD LIMIT TIME
OUTSIDE. EVERYONE IS ENCOURAGED TO ENSURE THEIR WINTER CAR SURVIVAL
KIT IS UP TO DATE. CHECK ON VULNERABLE NEIGHBORS AND LIMIT OUTDOOR
TIME FOR PETS.
AS FOR PCPN, THIS PATTERN WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY WIDESPREAD,
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS FOR UPPER MI THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ONLY A FEW
CLIPPER TYPE WAVES WILL GENERATE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF -SN. SO,
SNOWFALL WILL BE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LAKE EFFECT DRIVEN. WHILE THE
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO
EXTREME OVERLAKE INSTABILITY, THE COLD WILL ALSO SUPPRESS THE DGZ
TOWARD THE SFC OR ELIMINATE IT ALTOGETHER, LEADING TO A FINE/POWDERY
TYPE SNOW (LOW SLR) THAT DOES NOT ACCUMULATE AS EFFICIENTLY. ON THE
FLIP SIDE, THIS TYPE OF SNOW IS HIGHLY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING
VISIBILITY, LEADING TO FREQUENT WHITEOUTS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS TYPE
OF SNOW IS ALSO EASILY KICKED UP ON ROADS BY VEHICLES, LEADING TO
MINI WHITEOUTS TRAILING VEHICLES. TRAVEL IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY NW
FLOW LES SAT THRU TUE WILL BE VERY HAZARDOUS DUE TO POOR VISIBILITY.
FROM TUE ONWARD, FLOW ACROSS N AMERICA DEAMPLIFIES, BUT THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING IN THE MEAN OVER THE NE
PACIFIC/ADJACENT N AMERICA FORCING TROFFING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN N
AMERICA. THE DEAMPLIFICATION WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION FROM THE
EARLY WEEK BITTER COLD, BUT THE PATTERN WILL STILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLDER AIR TO AT LEAST GRAZE UPPER MI WITH THE PASSAGE
OF CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVES. EXPECT TEMPS ON MOST DAYS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK TO BE BLO NORMAL.
BEGINNING FRI, A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WAVE WILL INITIATE THE START OF THE ARCTIC AIR SURGE. WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL NEED TO OVERCOME DRIER AIR AS THAT
ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU FRI MORNING. MODELS
ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER THAT WILL OCCUR, BUT SUFFICIENT SATURATION WILL
OCCUR DEEPER INTO THE RETREATING COLDER AIR WHERE IT IS EASIER TO
ACHIEVE. THUS, WILL HOLD ONTO CHC POPS OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA IN
THE MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. BIGGER
FCST CONCERN IS WIND. PRES FALLS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAA REGIME WITH THE CENTER AT 6-8MB/3HR PASSING JUST N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE RESULTING ISALLOBARIC WIND WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE S
TO SW GRADIENT WIND AND THUS ENHANCE THE WIND. WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FROM THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY INTO THE EASTERN FCST AREA. GIVEN THAT HRRR/NAM/GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL TO MIX TO 40-50KT WINDS FOR A FEW HRS AND
CONSIDERING THE ISALLOBARIC ENHANCEMENT, WILL HOIST A WIND ADVY FOR
MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES FOR GUSTS UP TO 50MPH FRI MORNING UNTIL
ABOUT MID AFTN (13Z-20Z). IN REALITY, PEAK WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
IN A 2-3HR PERIOD, SO THE ADVY TIMING RUNS A LITTLE LONG. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE AS 180-190
WIND DIRECTION IS AN IDEAL DIRECTION FOR STRONG WINDS THERE. FCST
REFLECTS 40-45MPH GUSTS IN THAT AREA FOR NOW. ANY LOOSE SNOW WILL
LEAD TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ON ROADS. COLD FRONT THAT PASSES LATE
FRI AFTN/EVENING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCOMING 6-9MB/3HR PRES RISES,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS, THIS TIME NW WINDS TO THE
KEWEENAW AND TO LAKESIDE LOCATIONS FROM ALGER COUNTY EASTWARD. BASED
ON MIXED LAYER WINDS IN FCST SOUNDINGS, EXPECT 40-50MPH GUSTS, MAYBE
PEAK UP TO 55MPH ON THE KEWEENAW. WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINE FOR
THESE WINDS GIVEN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRI SHOULD REACH THE LOW/MID 30S F.
COLD FROPA WILL INITIATE LES AND LEAD TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR
FLOWING INTO THE AREA THRU THE WEEKEND ON PREDOMINANTLY NW LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. TEMPS WILL FALL THRU THE DAY ON SAT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT READINGS OF AROUND -10C E TO -15C W TO
TO AROUND -22C E TO -25C W BY SAT EVENING. BY SUNSET SAT, TEMPS WILL
BE NEARING 0F W TO AROUND 10F ABOVE E. THE INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR
SURROUNDING THE LAKE WILL PROGRESSIVELY STRENGTHEN LAKE INDUCED
THERMAL TROFFING, LEADING TO WINDS DEVELOPING AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT,
PARTICULARLY OFF OF NW WI, OFF OF MARQUETTE COUNTY AND OFF OF
ONTARIO ALONG THE E SIDE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL FAVOR ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE INTO ONTONAGON/SOUTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND ALSO INTO
ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES. EXPECT LES TO BE MOST PERSISTENT/HEAVIER IN
THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER, BY LATER SAT AND THRU TUE, THE COLD WILL
SUPPRESS THE DGZ TO NEAR THE SFC OR ELIMINATE IT ALTOGETHER, LEADING
TO A FINE/POWDERY TYPE SNOW THAT DOES NOT ACCUMULATE AS EFFICIENTLY
AS TYPICAL LES. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
END UP IN A 2-4 TO LOCALLY 6 INCH RANGE ON SAT BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR
LARGELY ELIMINATES THE DGZ. THEN, A GENERAL 1-3 TO ISOLD 4-5
INCHES/12HR RANGE SAT NIGHT THRU TUE. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE MORE
LIKELY IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF ALGER INTO LUCE COUNTIES DUE TO LONGER
FETCH AND BECAUSE THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT OFF OF ONTARIO OFTEN
LEADS TO PARTICULARLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN FACT, GIVEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AND THE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
GRADIENT WIND FIELDS AS WE GET INTO SUN THRU TUE, EASTERLY WINDS MAY
PUSH OUT A GOOD DISTANCE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT TIMES,
CONVERGING WITH THE WNW/NW WINDS OVER THE LAKE. THAT MAY BOOST SNOW
AMOUNTS MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT TIME FRAME. BIGGER ISSUE WITH THE SNOW WILL
BE WHITEOUTS AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON SAT,
LEADING TO BLSN, BUT DURING THE COLDEST PERIOD SUN INTO TUE, WINDS
WON'T BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, GUSTING TO AROUND 25MPH NEAR THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE AND KEWEENAW AND UP TO AROUND 20MPH ELSEWHERE. EVEN
SO, THE FINE/POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASILY LOFTED BY THESE WINDS TO
FURTHER REDUCE THE ALREADY VERY POOR VIS FROM THE FALLING SNOW.
WIND BEGIN TO BACK WESTERLY TUE WITH ONSET OF WAA, SHIFTING LES TO
MAINLY THE KEWEENAW OVER THE W AND CLOSER TO SHORE OVER THE E.
CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS AT SOME POINT WED/THU TO PROVIDE A
CHC OF -SN, FOLLOWED BY SOME LES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. BLOWING SNOW MAY BRING IN
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT CMX AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THEN MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY SETS IN AT CMX AND POTENTIALLY IWD TONIGHT
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE NW WIND BELTS. SAW SHOULD
MISS OUT ON SNOW FOR THE MOST PART AS THIS IS A LESS FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION FOR PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT THERE. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-30KTS POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT WHILE
SHIFTING TO THE NW. THE UPTICK IN WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO BRING
POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IMPACTS MAINLY AT IWD, BUT
POTENTIALLY AT CMX AS WELL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 506 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
A COUPLE OF PASSING CLIPPERS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE AT TIMES IN THIS PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY
DEEPENING ARCTIC COLD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONGOING NW WINDS TO 20-30KT, STRONGEST OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL FALL BRIEFLY TO 20KT OR LESS BY LATE EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE QUICKLY PASSES. WINDS THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. S TO SW GALES ARE LIKELY
BY FRI MORNING AS WINDS ARE ENHANCED BY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
PASSING OVER THE AREA WITH THE MAX PRES FALLS PASSING BY JUST N OF
THE LAKE. GALES WILL REACH 40-45KT ACROSS THE E HALF, INCLUDING A 15-
25PCT CHANCE OF PEAK GUSTS REACHING STORM FORCE. AFTER THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER CROSSES THE LAKE FRI AFTN/NIGHT,
NW GALES WILL DEVELOP AS COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA WITH WINDS
ENHANCED BY INCOMING PRES RISES. ANOTHER HIGH END GALE WILL OCCUR
WITH THE NW WINDS, INCLUDING A 15-25PCT CHANCE OF PEAK GUSTS
REACHING STORM FORCE. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
DAY SAT, BUT INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR FLOWING OVER THE LAKE WILL
SUPPORT 20-30KT WINDS. THERE IS ALSO SOME LOCAL GALE POTENTIAL WHERE
WNW/NW WINDS OVER THE LAKE CONVERGE WITH WINDS LOCALLY ALTERED BY
VERY COLD AIR FLOWING OFF OF THE LAND. THERE AREA SOME INDICATIONS
FOR ANOTHER CLIPPER MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD INCREASE WINDS
AGAIN.
THE INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR ARRIVING OVER WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT ICE
ACCRETION FROM FREEZING SPRAY. EXPECTING MODERATE TO HEAVY ICE
ACCRETION RATES AT TIMES.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR MIZ001-003.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ005-006.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162-
240>248-263-264.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-
263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR LSZ243>251-264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ249>251-265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...VOSS
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