021
FXUS63 KMQT 172034
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
334 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BLUSTERY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, TURNING TO
THE NW TONIGHT BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS UP TO
40-50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS
TONIGHT, WITH 1-3 IN OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY THE MORNING.
GUSTY WINDS MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING
SUBZERO FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING
OVER INTERIOR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MUCH OF THE REST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN MAY SEE TEMPERATURES FAIL TO RISE
ABOVE ZERO ON MONDAY AND MAYBE TUESDAY.
- HOMEOWNERS AND PROPERTY MANAGERS SHOULD TAKE ACTION NOW FOR
THIS COLD PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IF PAST VERY COLD PERIODS HAVE
YIELDED IMPACTS. ENSURE YOUR WINTER CAR SURVIVAL KIT IS UP-TO-
DATE. THIS WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY, LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS FOR
YOU AND YOUR PETS, AND CHECK ON VULNERABLE NEIGHBORS.
- FREQUENT WHITEOUTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE FALLING SNOW
BEING A FINE, POWDERY TYPE SNOW THAT IS HIGHLY EFFECTIVE AT
REDUCING VISIBILITY. EXPECT VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS.
- NO WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS FOR UPPER MI THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
NEARLY ALL OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURS WILL BE LAKE EFFECT DRIVEN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
SKIRTING ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER INTO NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH A 986MB SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED JUST NORTH OF LAKE
NIPIGON. DESPITE FAIRLY ACTIVE RADAR RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST UP, VERY LITTLE PRECIP HAS
MADE IT TO THE GROUND THANKS TO A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. WILL NOTE
AN UPTICK IN RADAR RETURNS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN, HOWEVER WITH DRY
AIR STILL HANGING AROUND CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY PRECIP SPREADING
INTO THE CENTRAL UP WILL AMOUNT TO ANYTHING AT ALL ASIDE FROM SOME
FLURRIES.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IS THE
STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BARRELING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. WITH ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE UP THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL
BACK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, USHERING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR AND STARTING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. RAPID PRESSURE RISES ~6-9MB/3HR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWEST WINDS UPWARDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH TONIGHT IN THE KEWEENAW, THUS, HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE
UPCOMING WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES.
COINCIDING THE WINDS, STRONG CAA ALOFT BRINGS IN 850MB TEMPS NEAR -
17C EAST AND -21C WEST BY SATURDAY MORNING, UPTICKING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELTS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO NAIL CONSIDERING A FEW FACTORS
WORKING AGAINST EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. WITH DECREASING TEMPS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THERE WILL ONLY BE A ~6 HOUR PERIOD OF
SOLID LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ BEFORE IT ENDS UP BELOW THE SURFACE. ONCE
THE DGZ FALLS BELOW THE SURFACE, SNOW CRYSTAL HABIT WILL CHANGE TO A
FINE POWDERY TYPE OF SNOW THAT IS TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE, BUT CAN
DRASTICALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THAT PERIOD WILL WORK TO FRACTURE DENDRITES AS THEY FALL,
LOWERING SLRS FURTHER LESSENING SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE SURFACE.
INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY WILL WORK TO LOWER
LAKE INDUCED INVERSION HEIGHTS. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE NW SNOW BELTS WILL BE 2" OR LESS PER 6 HOURS THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHERE TOTALS AMOUNTS OF 2-5" ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN
TERRAIN ENHANCED PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW AND IN ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES
UNDER THE STRONGEST CONVERGENT BANDS. ELSEWHERE, 1-2" OR LESS IS
EXPECTED WHERE LES BANDS WOBBLE ABOUT.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THEIR DECENT AS
ARCTIC AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL DROP TONIGHT TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR / TEENS NEAR THE LAKESHORES
AND BARELY CLIMB ANY HIGHER FOR SATURDAY'S EXPECTED HIGHS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS US OUT WITH A LARGE SCALE SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUING TO CYCLE INTO THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS
AS DISPLAYED BY THE EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERING MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SUITES AND GUIDANCES. THIS PLUNGE OF POLAR AIR WILL BE
CAUSED BY THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO ALASKA
AND BEYOND, CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
DOWNSTREAM OF IT. GUIDANCE STILL BRINGS 850MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -30C
OVER THE U.P. LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE COLDEST SHOT OF AIR LOOKS TO MISS US TO OUR WEST (MOST LIKELY
DUE TO SOME LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR), THIS WILL STILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO EVEN GET TO 0F OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL U.P. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGHS COULD EVEN STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE -10F IN THE COLD
SPOTS, PARTICULARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
IS PROJECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD. WHILE WINDS AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE ALL
THAT STRONG LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, WE COULD SEE WIND CHILLS DROP DOWN TO THE -20 TO POSSIBLY
EVEN -40F RANGE, AS THE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE COLDEST SPOTS COULD
DROP DOWN TO -30F OR LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY; WE COULD SEE SOME UPGRADES TO EXTREME COLD WARNINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY
OVER GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES WHERE WIND CHILLS BELOW -35F ARE
EXPECTED; HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE WILL SET-IN WITHIN 30 MINUTES OR
LESS IN THESE CONDITIONS, POSSIBLY EVEN WITHIN 10 MINUTES OR LESS
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS. DURING THIS COLD
SPELL, REMEMBER THE "4 PS": PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS, AND PIPES (THE "4
PS" ARE COURTESY OF METEOROLOGIST CHANELLE STIGGER FROM WFO LAKE
CHARLES). MAKE SURE TO NOT EXPOSE YOURSELF TO THE OUTDOOR CONDITIONS
FOR LONG/MORE THAN YOU ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO. LIMIT YOUR PETS' TIME
OUTSIDE THESE NEXT FEW DAYS. PUT YOUR PLANTS IN WARM ENVIRONMENTS.
AND IF YOU LIVE ON A PROPERTY THAT HAS A HISTORY OF PIPES FREEZING,
BE SURE TO RUN THE FAUCET TO PREVENT ICE BUILDUP. TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF A CLIPPER DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
AS FOR THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EXPECT THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW TO KEEP LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH TEMPERATURES
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEING MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE DGZ (TOO
COLD), EXPECT THE SAND-LIKE/SECTOR-PLATED SNOW TO BE NEAR A 10:1
SLR. WHILE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AREN'T LOOKING TO BE THAT
IMPRESSIVE DUE TO THE LOW PWATS IN THE POLAR AIR, WE COULD SEE
VISIBILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED IN SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS DOWN
TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE
WHERE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AND BEHIND VEHICLES WHERE
LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO CARS 'KICKING UP'
THE SNOWFALL FROM THE ROADWAYS. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY NOT REACH
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, SOME OF THESE MAY BE ISSUED IN THE
FUTURE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES. IN
ADDITION, SOME STRONGER SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.P. AS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A REMNANT SURFACE
LOW FORMING OVER THE EASTERN LAKE, CREATING LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
FOR THE SNOW BANDS. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED LATENT HEAT RELEASE
DUE TO THE LONGER FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, WE COULD SEE MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY EVEN HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES (LREF SHOWING 2 INCHES PER 6
HOUR SNOWFALL RATES HAVING UP TO A 20% CHANCE); IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE GET MORE DENDRITES TO FORM IN THE STRONGER
BANDS OVER THE EAST DUE TO THE INCREASED LATENT HEAT FLUX AND THUS
WARMER TEMPERATURES/LONGER TIME IN THE DGZ; SHOULD THIS OCCUR, WE
MAY SEE MUCH HIGHER SLR SNOW OVER THE EAST AND THUS HIGHER SNOWFALL
RATES/SNOW TOTALS. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, EXPECT THE
WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY;
THIS LOOKS TO KICK THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL OUT OF THE U.P. INTO THE
OPEN LAKE BY WEDNESDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN.
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AND ONWARDS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW RUNNING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BEFORE
ARRIVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
CLIPPER MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA,
BUT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING. WHILE
WE MAY SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND IT, WE COULD SEE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
LOW POSSIBLY BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERALL, EXPECT THE TROUGHING PATTERN TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING MAINLY NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA; NO NOTABLE SYSTEM SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE U.P. THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON AS MOSTLY HIGH CIRRUS AND CIRRO-STRATUS
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG JETSTREAK NUDGING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE LARGELY PREVENTED LOW
CEILINGS, HOWEVER, DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TREKKING
THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA PRESSES INTO THE UP TONIGHT. AS THIS
FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE NEAR 00-03Z, LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS WILL BEGIN TO UPTICK, THUS, BRINGING IFR
CIGS AND VIS AT IWD AND CMX THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SAW
MAY NOT SEE ANY SNOW GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS UPWARDS OF 25-35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, PARTICULARLY AT CMX WHERE GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. BLOWING SNOW COULD CAUSE VISIBILITY ISSUES AT ALL
SITES AS SNOW CRYSTAL HABIT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FROM SNOWFLAKES TO
A FINER POWDER TYPE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, FURTHER REDUCING
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SOUTHWEST GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE EAST AND WEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS
OVER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BECOME NORTHWEST GALES UP TO 45 KNOTS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OF A
CLIPPER LIFTING TOWARDS JAMES BAY. AS MUCH COLDER AIR CYCLES OVER
THE LAKE TONIGHT THROUGH TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE, EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN
THIS WEEKEND TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY SUNDAY. THE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY, WHEN A SURFACE
HIGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SHIFTS WINDS TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ SATURDAY TO 10
PM EST /9 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ001-003-009-010.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY TO 10
PM EST /9 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-004>006-011>014-084-
085.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162-
240>248-263-264.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242-
263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR LSZ243>251-264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ249>251-265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...TAP
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