504
FXUS63 KMQT 190436
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1136 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING
SUBZERO FROM TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. MUCH OF WEST AND
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN MAY SEE TEMPERATURES FAIL TO RISE ABOVE
ZERO ON MONDAY AND MAYBE TUESDAY.
- HOMEOWNERS AND PROPERTY MANAGERS SHOULD TAKE ACTION NOW FOR
THIS COLD PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IF PAST VERY COLD PERIODS HAVE
YIELDED IMPACTS. ENSURE YOUR WINTER CAR SURVIVAL KIT IS UP-TO-
DATE. THIS WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY, LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS FOR
YOU AND YOUR PETS, AND CHECK ON VULNERABLE NEIGHBORS.
- FREQUENT WHITEOUTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE FALLING SNOW
BEING A FINE, POWDERY TYPE SNOW THAT IS HIGHLY EFFECTIVE AT
REDUCING VISIBILITY. EXPECT VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS.
- NO WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS FOR UPPER MI THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NEARLY ALL OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURS WILL BE LAKE EFFECT
DRIVEN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT NOW WELL EAST OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES ALL DAY
AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME ARE COMING IN FROM
GROUND-BASED OBS IN IRONWOOD AND WAKEFIELD WHERE 3 AND 4 DEGREES ARE
BEING REPORTED, RESPECTIVELY. ELSEWHERE, IT ISN'T MUCH WARMER ACROSS
THE U.P. WITH MUCH OF THE KEWEENAW AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ALSO IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS REPORTING TEENS.
MEANWHILE, WNW WINDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENTLY GUSTING UP TO 20-25 MPH
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY MAKING IT FEEL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AND ALOFT, 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT -25C TO -30C BY TONIGHT. AS USUAL,
THE WEST/INTERIOR WEST WILL BE THE COLDEST TONIGHT AS LOWS SINK INTO
THE -10F TO -15F RANGE FOLLOWED BY THE KEWEENAW IN THE -2F TO -10F
RANGE. AS A RESULT, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THESE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE DANGEROUS TEMPERATURES, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THE CONVERGENT ZONE PRONE AREAS OF ALGER AND LUCE
COUNTIES CAN EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT (LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS).
THIS COUPLED WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND FINE NATURE OF THE SNOW
WILL RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW/WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. SO, A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES
THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
COUNTIES COULD ALSO PICK UP A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER THUS FAR IMPACTS US EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO PLUNGE INTO THE REST OF THE EASTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE CONUS AS A HIGH PRESSURE BLOCK MOVES FROM ALASKA INTO
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THIS VERY DRY POLAR AIR WILL BRING AN
IMPRESSIVE TRAIN OF SHORTWAVE HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH EACH OF THE HIGHS RANGING FROM 1040 TO 1050MB (WHICH
IS NEAR THE MAX OF THE NAEFS MODELED CLIMATOLOGY)! WHILE THIS
OCCURS, REMNANT TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY; WITH THE ARCTIC AIR
BEING SOMEWHAT MODIFIED BY LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE LACK OF ICE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS (THANKFULLY!), TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL NOT
BE AS COLD AS WHAT THEY WILL BE FURTHER WEST OF US. HOWEVER, EVEN
WITH THE LATENT HEAT FLUX FROM LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GREATLY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 0F
ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, EXPECT DOWNRIGHT FRIGID
CONDITIONS AS 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -30C MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS (COLDER WEST, WARMER EAST); LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO MAINLY BE 10 BELOW TO COLDER THAN 20
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
SEEN IN THE INTERIOR WEST. WHILE THE WINDS WON'T BE IMPRESSIVELY
STRONG, WITH THE EUROPEAN EFI HIGHLIGHTING WIND SPEEDS UP TO 0.5
THROUGH TUESDAY, EXPECT WIND CHILLS IN THE -20S TO -40S F DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACROSS THE U.P. FROM TONIGHT TO MONDAY EVENING, WITH EXTREME COLD
WEATHER WARNINGS BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST AND CENTRAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WIND CHILLS ARE
STILL PROJECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE -35 TO -45F RANGE, ESPECIALLY
FOR GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES. WHAT'S INTERESTING IS THAT COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY TO NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA IS LOOKING
TO BE MET ACROSS THE WEST HALF EVEN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGHLIGHTING THE LACK OF WARMTH THAT WE WILL
RECEIVE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE VERY COLD
CONDITIONS LASTING SO LONG AND WITHOUT REPRIEVE, VULNERABLE PEOPLE,
ANIMALS, AND PROPERTY WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO TIME TO RECOVER FROM
THE FRIGID CONDITIONS; THIS HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF COMPOUNDING
COLD/EXTREME COLD WEATHER IMPACTS ON TOP OF ONE ANOTHER. THEREFORE,
BE SURE TO LIMIT YOUR TIME OUTSIDE EARLY THIS WEEK; ONLY GO OUT IF
YOU NEED TO AS FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA COULD SET IN WITHIN 30
MINUTES OR LESS (SOMETIME WITHIN 10 MINUTES OR LESS). LIMIT YOUR
PETS' TIME OUTSIDE. MOVE ANY PLANTS INTO WARMER/SHELTERED
ENVIRONMENTS. AND BE SURE TO HAVE A FAUCET DRIP GOING IN ORDER TO
PREVENT WATER PIPES FROM FREEZING ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WITH
LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER AS THE LACK OF SNOW WILL CAUSE THE FROST
DEPTH TO GROW EVEN DEEPER INTO THE GROUND. AGAIN, FREEZING PIPES
WILL BE A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY IN THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL/CENTRAL WHERE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER TO HELP
INSULATE THE GROUND. WITH THE FRIGID CONDITIONS NOT RELENTING EVEN
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, WE COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO
UNDERGROUND WATERLINES AND CROPS AS THE FROST DEPTH COULD GET DOWN
TO SEVERAL FEET BEFORE THE PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE EXTREMELY COLD CONDITIONS, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING TO BE RATHER LIGHT
DUE TO SECTOR-PLATING/COLUMN DEVELOPMENT OF THE SNOW CRYSTALS (THUS
CAUSING SLRS TO BE AROUND 10:1), WE COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WITHIN SOME OF THE SNOWBANDS. INDEED, GIVEN THE SAND-
LIKE/POWDERY NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL, WE COULD SEE LOCALIZED WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS BEHIND MOTOR VEHICLES AND WITHIN PATCHES OF BLOWING SNOW
(MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE). WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING A REMNANT LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAINING THROUGH MONDAY, WE COULD SEE SOME
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE
EAST, INCREASING THE SNOW TOTALS OVER THERE. THUS, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALGER, NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE
COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY; DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE
WESTERN COUNTIES LIKE ONTONAGON, NORTHERN HOUGHTON, AND THE KEWEENAW
ARE ADDED IN THE FUTURE DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY, EVEN THOUGH THE FORECASTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CURRENTLY
DON'T WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. OVERALL, EXPECT THE
SNOWFALL RATES TO BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES PER 12 HOUR PERIOD OVER THE
WESTERN NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS, WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO
3 OR 4 INCHES PER A 12 HOUR PERIOD MAINLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR THE PORKIES VIA SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. FOR THE
EASTERN NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS, EXPECT THE SNOWFALL RATES TO BE A
LITTLE HIGHER, MAINLY 1-4 INCHES PER 12 HOURS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO 6 INCHES PER 12 HOURS ALONG AND NORTH OF M-28 FROM MUNISING
EASTWARD. AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TUESDAY, EXPECT THE WINDS TO BACK TO THE WEST,
CAUSING THE SNOWFALL AND ITS IMPACTS TO MAINLY AFFECT THE KEWEENAW.
BY TUESDAY EVENING, EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
THE REGION, LIFTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OUT OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND
TEMPORARILY GIVING US A REPRIEVE FROM PRECIPITATION.
A CLIPPER DROPPING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK ACROSS THE AREA AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY AS IT GOES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH A LOW IN THE GULF AND A HIGH IN
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BLOCKING MOISTURE FROM REACHING US, ANY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WE WOULD RECEIVE WOULD BE RATHER LIGHT, IF
EVEN THAT; THE ONLY PLACE THAT MIGHT SEE SOMETHING OF NOTE IS THE
FAR EAST DUE TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL FROM LAKE MICHIGAN (PROVIDED
THAT THE LAKE HASN'T DEVELOPED SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK). WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER
WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED REPRIEVE FROM THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES FROM
EARLY THIS WEEK, HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL STILL ONLY BE CLOSE TO NORMAL,
WITH THE NBM CURRENTLY PROJECTING THE U.P. TO REACH THE TEENS. MORE
QUICK-HITTING RIDGES FOLLOWED BY CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LOWS LOOK TO
IMPACT THE AREA THE REST OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE
CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN SUITES BRINGING MORE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK ACROSS OUR NECK-OF-THE WOODS TO END THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND JUST BEYOND; SHOULD LAKE SUPERIOR REMAIN MOSTLY ICE-FREE,
WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL BEHIND EACH OF THE
CLIPPERS, MAINLY OVER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. WHILE
WE CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND, IT
WON'T NEARLY BE AS COLD AS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
GENERAL TREND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS AT IWD AND CMX WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR AT IWD AND CMX
IN BLOWING SNOW/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SAW WILL STAY VFR THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS, HIGHEST AT CMX.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS/GALES UP TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO DWINDLE
TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR WEAKENS. NEVERTHELESS, HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS STILL
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LAKE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY (IF NOT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TOO) EVEN AS THE WINDS WEAKEN TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS SUNDAY BEFORE REMAINING STEADY AT THAT SPEED THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT VIA THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING TO CYCLE INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TUESDAY, EXPECT THE WINDS TO
SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR, EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS TUESDAY EVENING AS A CLIPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES; THE MOST RECENT EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE RUN HAS UP TO A 50% CHANCE OF LOW-END GALE FORCE GUSTS UP
TO 34 KNOTS TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE CLIPPER
ARRIVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY, EXPECT THE WINDS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR TO DIE DOWN, BECOMING 20 KNOTS OR LESS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL CLIPPER LOWS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK TO NEXT WEEKEND ARE LOOKING TO INCREASE WINDS ABOVE 20
KNOTS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR
MIZ001-003-009-010.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY TO 10
PM EST /9 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-004>007-011>014-084-
085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY
FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ243>251-264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TAP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page